[Politics] Russia invades Ukraine (24/02/2022)

[papachris]

No idea what the game is but there is much more to these developments than meets the eye imo

Exactly. Something stinks about this whole thing. Wagner soldiers being offered contracts in Russian army. Isn't that exactly what they said they would never do. Prigozhin going to Belarus. To do what? He sure isn't going to fade away and disappear. Lukashenko is just Putin's puppet. I wouldn’t be surprised if Belarus officially joins the 'special operation ' with guess who in a senior military role.

 

[raymondo]

Not so sure any of that is true at all.

There were two quite plausible explanations put by Radio 5 callers earlier, suggesting Putin comes out of this stronger.

1. Increasingly rogue Wagner group tamed. Prighozin exiled to Belarus whilst a large chunk of his forces are absorbed into the Russian army.

2. It's a joint move by Putin and Prighozin. Wagner group forces and Prighozin rest up in Belarus for a bit, 70 miles from Kyiv, ready to launch an attack on Ukraine.


I haven't been following events in Ukraine close enough to know if point 2 is a possibility or not.

I'm pretty sure though that nothing is likely quite what it seems when it comes to today's events in Russia.

I'm also pretty sure that we'll hear plenty of explanations that suit a Western agenda.

Yes, we shouldn't assume there's anything coming out of this of great benefit to Ukraine.
Maybe having a chunk of Wagner under Russian MOD control will lessen their effectiveness.
Re point 2, that could be an outcome, sadly. The ISW (Institute for the Study of War) certainly don't think the whole rebellion was staged, but sending Prigozhin to Belarus may now have plans underpinning it, rather than just getting him out of the way. Time will tell.

 

[Nobby Cybergoat]

Not a chance this was all staged. They shot down helicopters and planes.

The only plausible explanation to me is that they got to his family or the family of other wagner top brass. We know that fsb were raiding wagner family homes.

I think the fsb have done a job for putin. Basically they've saved his life and given him the soldiers of wagner.

I actually think putin comes out stronger in this. If a dominant army can get to within 200 km of Moscow and be forced to turn back, what does it say for any other prospective mutineers?

 

[beorhthelm]

I actually think putin comes out stronger in this. If a dominant army can get to within 200 km of Moscow and be forced to turn back, what does it say for any other prospective mutineers?

anyone with intent and paying attention would have seen the Russian forces are utterly denuded, and Putin will run away in face of an offensive. they couldnt mount any significant defense except place some machine guns on the edge of Moscow. the only positive for Putin is it was over so quickly most the public probably dont realise what happened.

 

[raymondo]

Not a chance this was all staged. They shot down helicopters and planes.

The only plausible explanation to me is that they got to his family or the family of other wagner top brass. We know that fsb were raiding wagner family homes.

I think the fsb have done a job for putin. Basically they've saved his life and given him the soldiers of wagner.

I actually think putin comes out stronger in this. If a dominant army can get to within 200 km of Moscow and be forced to turn back, what does it say for any other prospective mutineers?

Yep, that's the most likely to me... the FSB got to family members.

 

[Russconha]

What an unexpected plot twist. One thing it shows is if the West wanted to it could pretty much hop, skip and jump an army from Ukraine all the way to Moscow. Ever since the Mongols sacked Moscow in the 13th century, Russia has sought to protect Moscow by expanding its borders to make it difficult for enemy armies to get so far (see Napoleon, the entire German 6th army etc ...). NATO has no intention of going that far but after having up to 190,000 soldiers on the border before the invasion, a relatively small army of 25,000 mutinous mercenaries waltzing through the country will likely force Putin to play a powerful hand.

 

[vegster]

Not a chance this was all staged. They shot down helicopters and planes.

The only plausible explanation to me is that they got to his family or the family of other wagner top brass. We know that fsb were raiding wagner family homes.

I think the fsb have done a job for putin. Basically they've saved his life and given him the soldiers of wagner.

I actually think putin comes out stronger in this. If a dominant army can get to within 200 km of Moscow and be forced to turn back, what does it say for any other prospective mutineers?

Wagner was not forced to go back. There were very limited attacks on the Wagner column as it moved North. The Russian airforce could/should have destroyed the entire convoy but, very few showed up. Most local Russian forces sided with Wagner or stayed put for the day and were waiting to see what happened.

Moscow was there for the taking, a few sandbagged MG posts and lightly armed National Guard forces would not have stopped Wagner. Putin has been shown to be a weak leader with limited support, this is not over and I don't think he has long left.

 

[happypig]

Exactly. Something stinks about this whole thing. Wagner soldiers being offered contracts in Russian army. Isn't that exactly what they said they would never do. Prigozhin going to Belarus. To do what? He sure isn't going to fade away and disappear. Lukashenko is just Putin's puppet. I wouldn’t be surprised if Belarus officially joins the 'special operation ' with guess who in a senior military role.

Or Prigozhin is going to replace Lukashenko ?

 

[The Antikythera Mechanism]

Or Prigozhin is going to replace Lukashenko ?

Guess it'll depend on who falls out of a window first

 

[peterward]

Indeed...we want both teams to lose

Even though it turned into a bit of a shambles and Prigozhin imho is now a dead man walking (will not be alive 1 year from now)

It has demonstrated how weak and vulnerable Putin is.

Yet also again Putin has demonstrated that he can overcome another major challenge to still cling to power.

Both have won and lost at the same time in the short term.

Ultimately Putin and Russia is.much weaker than it was a weak ago, nothing has changed and yet much has.

 

[A1X]

What an unexpected plot twist. One thing it shows is if the West wanted to it could pretty much hop, skip and jump an army from Ukraine all the way to Moscow. Ever since the Mongols sacked Moscow in the 13th century, Russia has sought to protect Moscow by expanding its borders to make it difficult for enemy armies to get so far (see Napoleon, the entire German 6th army etc ...). NATO has no intention of going that far but after having up to 190,000 soldiers on the border before the invasion, a relatively small army of 25,000 mutinous mercenaries waltzing through the country will likely force Putin to play a powerful hand.

Oh I think if it were not for the nuclear threat, NATO could take Moscow without breaking sweat if it really wanted to

 

[peterward]

Not so sure any of that is true at all.

There were two quite plausible explanations put by Radio 5 callers earlier, suggesting Putin comes out of this stronger.

1. Increasingly rogue Wagner group tamed. Prighozin exiled to Belarus whilst a large chunk of his forces are absorbed into the Russian army.

2. It's a joint move by Putin and Prighozin. Wagner group forces and Prighozin rest up in Belarus for a bit, 70 miles from Kyiv, ready to launch an attack on Ukraine.


I haven't been following events in Ukraine close enough to know if point 2 is a possibility or not.

I'm pretty sure though that nothing is likely quite what it seems when it comes to today's events in Russia.

I'm also pretty sure that we'll hear plenty of explanations that suit a Western agenda.

Some suggesting that it's all a big ruse, so Wagner can attack Ukraine from North in Belarus, it isn't imho.

Wagner shot down 7 Russian aircraft in 24 hours, Putin was on national TV effectively ordering Prigorzhin elimination. I think it far more likely that Prigorzhin realised he couldn't win as not enough of the army or security forces crossed over to him the usurper (as they had in all previous Russian revolutions). 10k Wagner doesn't beat 10k Kadyrovites and 300k Rosgvardia, So he folded. He will be killed, Putin never forgives or forgets.

And its only Prigorzhin sent to Belarus not his Wagner fighters, they've been sent back to their base camps in Ukraine, where they'll be either seconded to Russian MOD or as many have already done since yesterday, broken Wagner contracts and just melt away. Again Putin will now come after all Wagner commanders or ringleaders, multiple reports that already family homes of Wagnerites are being raided. He'll ruthlessly remove and destroy this threat.

Lastly a land assault is virtually impossible, its mainly marshland near Belarus border, Ukraine has destroyed all bridges, mined extremely heavily and well protected defensive lines.

It's just not realistic, Wagner and Prigorzhin are finished. It's that simple, he tried to grab power, he needed turncoats and didn't get enough.

 

[Publius Ovidius]

What an unexpected plot twist. One thing it shows is if the West wanted to it could pretty much hop, skip and jump an army from Ukraine all the way to Moscow. Ever since the Mongols sacked Moscow in the 13th century, Russia has sought to protect Moscow by expanding its borders to make it difficult for enemy armies to get so far (see Napoleon, the entire German 6th army etc ...). NATO has no intention of going that far but after having up to 190,000 soldiers on the border before the invasion, a relatively small army of 25,000 mutinous mercenaries waltzing through the country will likely force Putin to play a powerful hand.

I think the examples of napoleon, the greatest tactician and military leader arguably, and hitler shows the world that invasion of Russia is totally unviable.

any change will only come by the people and evidence even on our own media is that joe Russian on the street love putin and Russia is perceived as “ great again”

 

[Triggaaar]

I actually think putin comes out stronger in this.

I can't see that. A few days ago he was a strong man that you didn't mess with. Prigozhin criticized the military leadership and Putin told Prig what to do. He refused, and marched on Moscow. Putin said he was a traitor, and that he and all his soldiers would be prosecuted.

Putin has now backed down from that. He's not going to prosecute the traitor Prigozhin, and he's not going to prosecute the soldiers either. It's a huge climb down. Of course it's also a huge climb down for Prigozhin, who looks like a complete fool. It's a complete Russian army shambles. When was the last time a proper army marched against itself, bombing itself from the sky, and shooting down it's own aircraft in defence?

Is the result as good as Ukraine would have hoped for? No, it's not. But does Russia look stronger or weaker than they did a few days ago - obviously they look weaker.

If a dominant army can get to within 200 km of Moscow and be forced to turn back

They weren't forced back, no force was used. They were persuaded to go back, because Prigozhin didn't actually want to be the leader of Russia, and didn't want to kill other Russians, he just wasn't standing for the treatment he felt he'd had.

 

[Triggaaar]

I think the examples of napoleon, the greatest tactician and military leader arguably, and hitler shows the world that invasion of Russia is totally unviable.

Not really. Napoleon messed up and Hitler wasn't just at war with Russia, he was at war with the whole world. Invasion of Russia is unviable for 2 reasons: 1) They have nuclear weapons - 2) The countries of Nato have no desire to invade and take over other countries. If marching into Moscow was the goal and Russia didn't have nukes, it would be a piece of piss.

any change will only come by the people

Change will come because Putin won't live forever, and the next leader (probably also a mafia boss) will want their own legacy. Their goal of taking over other countries will likely not change, but they will respond to force, and if Ukraine win and join Nato, then that's the end of any expansion goals there.

 

[peterward]

I think the examples of napoleon, the greatest tactician and military leader arguably, and hitler shows the world that invasion of Russia is totally unviable.

any change will only come by the people and evidence even on our own media is that joe Russian on the street love putin and Russia is perceived as “ great again”

That's a myth/legend.

A convoy of limited numbers just got all the way to within 200km of Moscow, virtually unopposed.

I've no doubt if it were Ukrainians or other foreigners, resistance would be stiffer, but just like Russias fearsome military or its unbeatable Hypersonic missiles it often all guff and bollocks in reality.

The Russian winter, combined with American lend lease and UK supplying key Intel from cracked enigma of German postions/plans all contributed to German defeat, no US leandlease and no UK Intel Russia probably wouldn't have won.

Cool fairytale of invincible Russians though.

 

[Neville's Breakfast]

Wagner may have turned back, having agreed some alleged deal, but is this over?

Putin is weaker tonight.

Is his army in Ukraine also weaker ? We are led to believe that Wagner are the best they have got. Will they just disappear ? If not, will they be as effective being deployed by pretty useless Russian generals ?

 

[sparkie]

That's a myth/legend.

A convoy of limited numbers just got all the way to within 200km of Moscow, virtually unopposed.

I've no doubt if it were Ukrainians or other foreigners, resistance would be stiffer, but just like Russias fearsome military or its unbeatable Hypersonic missiles it often all guff and bollocks in reality.

The Russian winter, combined with American lend lease and UK supplying key Intel from cracked enigma of German postions/plans all contributed to German defeat, no US leandlease and no UK Intel Russia probably wouldn't have won.

Cool fairytale of invincible Russians though.

And of course - contrary to the myth - Napolean actually occupied Moscow for a month before marching home.

 

[peterward]

And of course - contrary to the myth - Napolean actually occupied Moscow for a month before marching home.

Exactly. He waited for the Russians in Moscow for over a month, to strike a deal, but they never came, they'd all vanished and run away, so he left Moscow of his own accord and also got caught out by the weather on his way out back west which affected his troops being able to get food.

Sure the Russians will have tall tales of brave Russians routing Napoleon on the battlefield.

It's rubbish.

 

[Neville's Breakfast]

Not really. Napoleon messed up and Hitler wasn't just at war with Russia, he was at war with the whole world. Invasion of Russia is unviable for 2 reasons: 1) They have nuclear weapons - 2) The countries of Nato have no desire to invade and take over other countries. If marching into Moscow was the goal and Russia didn't have nukes, it would be a piece of piss.






Change will come because Putin won't live forever, and the next leader (probably also a mafia boss) will want their own legacy. Their goal of taking over other countries will likely not change, but they will respond to force, and if Ukraine win and join Nato, then that's the end of any expansion goals there.

Yep. The undeniable case against unilateral nuclear disarmament. Dealing with Russia without a nuclear NATO is unimaginable.