[Politics] Russia invades Ukraine (24/02/2022)

[Eric the meek]

It’s when they group together for an offensive that this sort of strike would happen tbf.

Then Russia's reward would be of limited effect on the battlefield, but incur widespread condemnation on a global scale.

Putin even mentioned the prevailing winds (west to east across Ukraine and into Russia) in his rambling speech this morning. The radiation would be blown straight into the Voronezh, Rostov and Krasnodar oblasts.

https://www.accuweather.com/en/ua/national/wind-flow

 

[SeagullinExile]

Then Russia's reward would be of limited effect on the battlefield, but incur widespread condemnation on a global scale.

Putin even mentioned the prevailing winds (west to east across Ukraine and into Russia) in his rambling speech this morning. The radiation would be blown straight into the Voronezh, Rostov and Krasnodar oblasts.

https://www.accuweather.com/en/ua/national/wind-flow

What about when the wind blows the opposite direction? . Anyway, the use of them would also be used to cause terror and instill fear into Ukrainians. Russia really doesn’t seem to care about world condemnation. All Russia has to do is declare the occupied parts of Ukraine sovereign Russian territory, then any attack by Ukraine on these territories, will become a direct attack on Russia. This is one of the conditions for Russian use of such weapons. It needs to be taken seriously.

NATO & the West ARE worried about this, otherwise they would be ignoring Putin’s threats.

 

[Weststander]

R4 on BBC Sounds, interesting stuff, from 07:45.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/sounds/play/m001c6mr

 

[Psychobilly freakout]

While Putin is working in his office planning the Ukraine war, the ghost of Stalin suddenly appears. Putin takes the opportunity to seek advice: “Stalin, what happened? why are things not working out for us?”
Stalin gives him advice: “Send 5 million Russians to their death at war, and paint the Kremlin blue.”
“Why blue?” asks Vladimir Putin.
"I knew you wouldn’t have a problem with the first part,” chuckles Stalin.

 

[Eric the meek]

What about when the wind blows the opposite direction? . Anyway, the use of them would also be used to cause terror and instill fear into Ukrainians. Russia really doesn’t seem to care about world condemnation. All Russia has to do is declare the occupied parts of Ukraine sovereign Russian territory, then any attack by Ukraine on these territories, will become a direct attack on Russia. This is one of the conditions for Russian use of such weapons. It needs to be taken seriously.

NATO & the West ARE worried about this, otherwise they would be ignoring Putin’s threats.

Then the Ukrainians would presumably confine their offensives to when the winds are blowing towards Russia.

I don't mean to come across as flippant; this is too serious a subject. I don't doubt that Putin's threats are being taken seriously by NATO leaders.
Putin knows he is losing this war. He knows if he continues this war much longer, he will lose it big time. So he is trying to ringfence his current 'gains'.

What happens next? Does NATO face him down, or put pressure on Zelensky to do a deal and pass the problem into the future?

 

[Weststander]

Then the Ukrainians would presumably confine their offensives to when the winds are blowing towards Russia.

I don't mean to come across as flippant; this is too serious a subject. I don't doubt that Putin's threats are being taken seriously by NATO leaders.
Putin knows he is losing this war. He knows if he continues this war much longer, he will lose it big time. So he is trying to ringfence his current 'gains'.

What happens next? Does NATO face him down, or put pressure on Zelensky to do a deal and pass the problem into the future?

Going by the US, Germany and a range of true experts on BBC, that's simply not on the agenda. Putin won't be allowed to retain stolen sovereign territory.

Putin badly misjudged everything, he's now desperately trying to save face.

 

[DIFFBROOK]

Putin and his cronies all say that Russia will only use nuclear weapons if the existence of Russia is under threat.

Would this also include territories that Russia has taken, using sham referendums to bring those territories as Russia itself. So, if Ukraine tries to take those territories (backed by Western weapons), Russia will say it is being attacked and can use Nuclear weapons in response.

What then for the West ?

I think the only plausible answer would be Russia to keep the Donbas as a buffer (awful as that is), but for Ukraine to be admitted to NATO and for Russia to know that 1 inch towards taking more territory will be war with NATO

Its either going to end with an uneasy deal, or it will end with Nuclear war. I cant see Putin being rid of.

How depressing

 

[Psychobilly freakout]

What happens next? Does NATO face him down, or put pressure on Zelensky to do a deal and pass the problem into the future?

We must NOT & NEVER put pressure on the Ukrainian people and leaders to make a deal with Putin, for future generations to deal with, that would be scandalous after all the people of the Ukraine have and are going through. We must see this out to the bitter end, as it is clear that Russia cannot and must not be seen to win, we must not let the world see that dictators can simply annex parts of the free world.

China and other dubious countries are watching us.

 

[Weststander]

Putin and his cronies all say that Russia will only use nuclear weapons if the existence of Russia is under threat.

Would this also include territories that Russia has taken, using sham referendums to bring those territories as Russia itself. So, if Ukraine tries to take those territories (backed by Western weapons), Russia will say it is being attacked and can use Nuclear weapons in response.

What then for the West ?

I think the only plausible answer would be Russia to keep the Donbas as a buffer (awful as that is), but for Ukraine to be admitted to NATO and for Russia to know that 1 inch towards taking more territory will be war with NATO

Its either going to end with an uneasy deal, or it will end with Nuclear war. I cant see Putin being rid of.

How depressing

Ukraine's already taking back those very lands, it's real.

 

[beorhthelm]

We must NOT & NEVER put pressure on the Ukrainian people and leaders to make a deal with Putin, for future generations to deal with, that would be scandalous after all the people of the Ukraine have and are going through. We must see this out to the bitter end, as it is clear that Russia cannot and must not be seen to win, we must not let the world see that dictators can simply annex parts of the free world.

China and other dubious countries are watching us.

what is the bitter end though? while not wanting to give licence for countries to follow, we shouldnt hold ourselves hostage to a stalemate. history is full of nation changes, and many happen we care far less about. i dont see any arms to Armenia for example.

 

[Commander]

Putin and his cronies all say that Russia will only use nuclear weapons if the existence of Russia is under threat.

Would this also include territories that Russia has taken, using sham referendums to bring those territories as Russia itself. So, if Ukraine tries to take those territories (backed by Western weapons), Russia will say it is being attacked and can use Nuclear weapons in response.

What then for the West ?

I think the only plausible answer would be Russia to keep the Donbas as a buffer (awful as that is), but for Ukraine to be admitted to NATO and for Russia to know that 1 inch towards taking more territory will be war with NATO

Its either going to end with an uneasy deal, or it will end with Nuclear war. I cant see Putin being rid of.

How depressing

What do you mean by 'nuclear war'? What do you think would happen if Putin effectively uses the tactic that the US used to end WW2 in Asia by using a small tactical nuclear bomb somewhere in Ukraine and saying "Surrender now chaps, or we'll keep going until you do".

Would NATO really respond by nuking Moscow? That would no doubt escalate into a full blown, global nuclear conflict if they did, and possibly the end of humanity. I personally just can't see NATO doing that, I think they'd rather have a few million Ukrainians die than end the world. But what other options would be open to them?

 

[Eric the meek]

Going by the US, Germany and a range of true experts on BBC, that's simply not on the agenda. Putin won't be allowed to retain stolen sovereign territory.

Putin badly misjudged everything, he's now desperately trying to save face.

I agree with you. I left that in to give SeagullinExile an off-ramp. Glad to see that Psychobilly is on board with the 'face down Putin' route.

Today has been a funny old day hasn't it? Being threatened with nuclear war is not a usual occurrence for us, but is probably a daily occurrence if you live next to Russia.

 

[Weststander]

I agree with you. I left that in to give SeagullinExile an off-ramp. Glad to see that Psychobilly is on board with the 'face down Putin' route.

Today has been a funny old day hasn't it? Being threatened with nuclear war is not a usual occurrence for us, but is probably a daily occurrence if you live next to Russia.

Strange how life goes on, with the biggest of all threats. Folk in the 50’s/early 60’s were used to this.

A good thing, as it’s a form of terrorism, bitter Putin would love the democratic world to be full of angst and worry, stock markets to crash.

 

[SeagullinExile]

Then the Ukrainians would presumably confine their offensives to when the winds are blowing towards Russia.

I don't mean to come across as flippant; this is too serious a subject. I don't doubt that Putin's threats are being taken seriously by NATO leaders.
Putin knows he is losing this war. He knows if he continues this war much longer, he will lose it big time. So he is trying to ringfence his current 'gains'.

What happens next? Does NATO face him down, or put pressure on Zelensky to do a deal and pass the problem into the future?

Doesn’t really matter about prevailing winds with tactical nukes tbh. They’re designed for minimal fallout. They range from 0.1 to 1.0 kt and can be deployed from regular artillery pieces, as well as short range missiles. Compare that to the 15.0 & 21.0 kt bombs dropped on Japan in WW2 they’re nothing.

I think IF Russia uses them, NATO would be fully dragged into this war because they’d have to respond in some way.

 

[sparkie]

[Tweet]1572555526625722369[/Tweet]

 

[Eric the meek]

Doesn’t really matter about prevailing winds with tactical nukes tbh. They’re designed for minimal fallout. They range from 0.1 to 1.0 kt and can be deployed from regular artillery pieces, as well as short range missiles. Compare that to the 15.0 & 21.0 kt bombs dropped on Japan in WW2 they’re nothing.

I think IF Russia uses them, NATO would be fully dragged into this war because they’d have to respond in some way.

I didn't know any of that. This is proper NSC. One minute you're enjoying the discussion; the next minute you realise you're way out of your depth. LOL.

 

[dadams2k11]

Wow..

The live feed from Moscow, being shown on Sky news of the Police taking protesters away is mental.

The reporter doing her job whilts it all goes off behind her.

 

[A1X]

I saw an interview with a retired US general the other day. Long story short - battlefield tactical weapons don't work because there are no worthwhile targets. For them to be effective, you need your enemy to be concentrated in one place. This is precisely what the Ukrainian army doesn't do. Instead it disperses widely, only coming together for an offensive.

So they're only really useful against the armies of ancient Rome and not against anyone since? Goodo.

 

[Questions]

Putin will be assassinated ……..

 

[Triggaaar]

So they're only really useful against the armies of ancient Rome and not against anyone since? Goodo.

They would also work against civilians, but Russia would struggle to argue that they were aiming at a military target (obviously they'd try). I'm not sure what the rest of the world would respond with - I also wonder if China has had a discussion with Putin about the possibility of using nukes - ie, we'll work with you and support you publicly, as long as no nukes are used.