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[Football] Relegation odds 20/21







Weststander

Well-known member
NSC Patron
Aug 25, 2011
64,188
Withdean area
The bookies/markets seem to like what they see with us, despite the goals conceded stat.

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A bit unfair on Leeds, 750/1 sounds about right.
 




Super Steve Earle

Well-known member
Feb 23, 2009
8,374
North of Brighton
There are so many strange results this year caused by the handball rule.

I think we may see players aiming for the handball rather than the goal once they get in the penalty area. Possibly an easier option than actually trying to score.
 






Gwylan

Well-known member
Jul 5, 2003
31,341
Uffern
Those Leeds odds look tempting: they were hanging on to beat Fulham (who are dire) and beat a poor Sheff Utd side by one goal. I don't think they're poor enough to go down but I wouldn't have put them at 11-1. I certainly think they'll finish below us, Palace and Newcastle
 


blue-shifted

Banned
Feb 20, 2004
7,645
a galaxy far far away
Those Leeds odds look tempting: they were hanging on to beat Fulham (who are dire) and beat a poor Sheff Utd side by one goal. I don't think they're poor enough to go down but I wouldn't have put them at 11-1. I certainly think they'll finish below us, Palace and Newcastle

11-1 looks great. It dovetails nicely with my betting philosophy, "where there is hype, go the other way"
 






Simster

"the man's an arse"
Jul 7, 2003
54,227
Surrey
Those Leeds odds look tempting: they were hanging on to beat Fulham (who are dire) and beat a poor Sheff Utd side by one goal. I don't think they're poor enough to go down but I wouldn't have put them at 11-1. I certainly think they'll finish below us, Palace and Newcastle
I largely agree with your assessment over those relegation odds, but it's worth pointing out that you only tend to need 9 or 10 wins to stay up, and Leeds have 2 of them already.

As for where they'll finish, I agree they'll be below us and Palace - but Newcastle don't convince me at all and I reckon Leeds will finish above them. Newcastle will be like West Ham last season (and again this season) IMO: not safe until the last 3 games.
 


Gwylan

Well-known member
Jul 5, 2003
31,341
Uffern
I largely agree with your assessment over those relegation odds, but it's worth pointing out that you only tend to need 9 or 10 wins to stay up, and Leeds have 2 of them already.

As for where they'll finish, I agree they'll be below us and Palace - but Newcastle don't convince me at all and I reckon Leeds will finish above them. Newcastle will be like West Ham last season (and again this season) IMO: not safe until the last 3 games.

Yeah, I don't think Leeds are as great as some pundits are making them out to be - they've just had two very easy games - but they're not as bad as Fulham (who look like they could break Derby's record), Sheff U or Burnley

Early days but it looks a very poor PL this year
 


blue-shifted

Banned
Feb 20, 2004
7,645
a galaxy far far away
Yeah, I don't think Leeds are as great as some pundits are making them out to be - they've just had two very easy games - but they're not as bad as Fulham (who look like they could break Derby's record), Sheff U or Burnley

Early days but it looks a very poor PL this year

Difficult to square that statement with the obvious trend that the best talent from other leagues in Europe (minus a very few clubs) is flowing to the PL.

Agree Sheff Utd and Burnley won't be having comfortable mid table finishes again. I'm not fooled by West Ham's great win at the weekend. Newcastle will bin off Bruce soon enough and their season will hinge on who they replace him with.
 




Uh_huh_him

Well-known member
Sep 28, 2011
10,704
It certainly feels like there will be at least 5 teams below us this season.

Sheff Utd/Burnley/Fulham/West Brom/Newcastle seem to be favourites to struggle.

We struggled at times with getting points from the teams around us last season.
Hopefully we can continue to improve on that this season and start pushing for mid table.
 


Killer Whale

Banned
Jul 27, 2020
213
Who's got Leeds at 4s mate? I want in

Did you get in?

They are now 11s, so maybe you were a bit precipitate?

Everyone on here who boasted about how they had who bet on a Leeds relegation, (what with you being such experts on football, and especially the Premier League and all), has lost their money.

Said it at the time and I'll say it again here now.

Mugs and their money are soon parted, I did tell you at the time. Don't bet against Bielsa.
 


sydney

tinky ****in winky
Jul 11, 2003
17,756
town full of eejits
Did you get in?

They are now 11s, so maybe you were a bit precipitate?

Everyone on here who boasted about how they had who bet on a Leeds relegation, (what with you being such experts on football, and especially the Premier League and all), has lost their money.

Said it at the time and I'll say it again here now.

Mugs and their money are soon parted, I did tell you at the time. Don't bet against Bielsa.

precipitate ...?? yer wha...?? ffs..?? :moo:
 




vagabond

Well-known member
May 17, 2019
9,804
Brighton
Did you get in?

They are now 11s, so maybe you were a bit precipitate?

Everyone on here who boasted about how they had who bet on a Leeds relegation, (what with you being such experts on football, and especially the Premier League and all), has lost their money.

Said it at the time and I'll say it again here now.

Mugs and their money are soon parted, I did tell you at the time. Don't bet against Bielsa.

You may well be right.

But it is far far too soon to start celebrating survival. Long way to go yet.

I never though Leeds would definitely go down, but I do expect them to be involved in a battle to stay up. That’s quite reasonable taking in history of promoted sides.

What I mainly took umbrage with is this whole “we’re gonna finish top 6 mate” attitude.
 


Jim in the West

Well-known member
NSC Patron
Sep 13, 2003
4,578
Way out West
Difficult to square that statement with the obvious trend that the best talent from other leagues in Europe (minus a very few clubs) is flowing to the PL.

Agree Sheff Utd and Burnley won't be having comfortable mid table finishes again. I'm not fooled by West Ham's great win at the weekend. Newcastle will bin off Bruce soon enough and their season will hinge on who they replace him with.

It's always good to think ahead regarding sackings. Last season you could just about guarantee that Bournemouth were not going to sack Howe - and that probably cost them, as didn't really have a clue after Christmas. Sheff United and Burnley may fall in to the same category this season. Newcastle, West Ham, Fulham, West Brom...they will all be trigger-happy if and when things get dodgy. Not sure about Smith at Villa....ok, they have won their first two games, but not sure they are particularly good. And I would think the owners will demand a decent return, now they've spent big for a second year.
 


Uh_huh_him

Well-known member
Sep 28, 2011
10,704
Did you get in?

They are now 11s, so maybe you were a bit precipitate?

Everyone on here who boasted about how they had who bet on a Leeds relegation, (what with you being such experts on football, and especially the Premier League and all), has lost their money.

Said it at the time and I'll say it again here now.

Mugs and their money are soon parted, I did tell you at the time. Don't bet against Bielsa.

Really??

Are you mathematically safe now having narrowly beaten Fulham and Sheffield United?
Didn't know that's how it works. But I'll bow to your superior knowledge on football, the premier league and Bookmakers in general.
 


blue-shifted

Banned
Feb 20, 2004
7,645
a galaxy far far away
Did you get in?

They are now 11s, so maybe you were a bit precipitate?

Everyone on here who boasted about how they had who bet on a Leeds relegation, (what with you being such experts on football, and especially the Premier League and all), has lost their money.

Said it at the time and I'll say it again here now.

Mugs and their money are soon parted, I did tell you at the time. Don't bet against Bielsa.

Yep, had a bet at 4's. £120. Thinking of going further in now it's 11s. I don't do too bad on the betting front.

Leeds had a good chance of carrying some momentum into the early season and riding the wave of hype. Plenty of football to be played. I still have no doubt they'll be in the dogfight
 




Icy Gull

Back on the rollercoaster
Jul 5, 2003
72,015
Did you get in?

They are now 11s, so maybe you were a bit precipitate?

Everyone on here who boasted about how they had who bet on a Leeds relegation, (what with you being such experts on football, and especially the Premier League and all), has lost their money.

Said it at the time and I'll say it again here now.

Mugs and their money are soon parted, I did tell you at the time. Don't bet against Bielsa.

I am old enough to remember when Carlisle were top of The First Division after a few games and got relegated. You are nowhere near safe yet however excited you are after three games, with two very narrow victories, against totally out of form sides. You’ve been gone a long long time and if you think three games is enough to call a finishing position in the PL you are just reinforcing the “deluded Leeds” tag you guys carry so well.
 


interesting that our odds have gone out again to 6/1+ even though we've lost 2 of the first three. Wonder how much team performance rather than points counts in the early part of the season?
 


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