[Brighton] Relegation Chances 2020

[DavidRyder]

Tending towards this myself too now but will keep hoping until it's mathematically gone (could well be the last game of the season the way things are looking).....no single factor for me (I'm not in the 'Potter' out camp and I think we'd be in the same, or even worse position if we hadn't changed), it's a combination of recruitment (or lack of), tactics and players not doing enough.

If we're still in with a chance of staying up when we play Burnley, I'd be very happy with that, but not sure I'm brave enough to go through the stress of it all at Turf Moor!

 

[Weststander]

If we're still in with a chance of staying up when we play Burnley, I'd be very happy with that, but not sure I'm brave enough to go through the stress of it all at Turf Moor!

That'd be a nightmare.

Thousands of racists and homophobes taunting the club of Bong and Gays back to the Championship. Dyche at home against us has a good record.

 

[dazzer6666]

The Talksport Supercomputer (work experience slave with a spreadsheet) has predicted :

https://talksport.com/football/6770...super-computer-predicts-premier-league-table/

 

[Easy 10]

I'm usually quite positive, but I think we're gone. Our little run of "winnable" games has come and gone, resulting in 0 wins, and looking at whats coming up, I'm struggling to see where we're going to harvest the points we need. We're a bit of a soft touch and not ruthless enough in front of goal. Hardly breaking news, as we all knew going into a PL season with a pensioner, a 15 year old and a Championship striker as our forward options was far from ideal, so a season of struggle was always on the cards.

We're not a BAD team - but the trouble is, this time, neither are the ones around us. We are going to be made to pay for failing to win home games against the likes of Villa, Palace, West Ham, Watford, Soton. We're not good enough on the road to absorb results like that, and don't spring enough "surprise" results like the one at the Emirates to keep us ticking over.

We'll come up just short this time, along with Narch and the Muff IMO.

 

[Shoreham Beach Seagull]

Are people really looking at Bournemouth and Aston Villa’s fixtures and thinking they can pick up 3+ wins?

Their fixtures are harder than ours, we’ve also picked up 3 of our 6 wins against Arsenal, Tottenham and Everton so not out of the realms to have a few upsets. If anything playing against teams with more possessions plays into our hands, rather than teams that have been sitting 11 behind the ball

 

[wigman]

Mr Potter is confident but I'm not.
We've failed to beat any team around or below us.
I sincerely hope I'm proved wrong, what started so promising now looks doomed to failure.
I'm convinced we will be playing in the Championship next season.

 

[Giraffe]

Just bet on us to go down at 9/4.

I'm sorry but just can't see it not happening and those odds are too good for something that seems very likely. I've seen us relegated several times now and you can kind of smell it by this stage of the season. We are doomed.

 

[schmunk]

Perhaps Uncle Tony has worked out that being in a "relegation battle" gets us more press coverage for the sponsors than being in mid-table nomansland?

 

[vagabond]

I’ve placed my insurance bet too, but only as the odds are good value. We’re by no means certainties to go down.

I’ve long here pointed to the home games against Man U, Arse and Newcastle. Despite the opposite predictions, I think there’s a legit chance of 7+ points there. That would bring us to the brink of safety.

And don’t forget the fact that Potters style plays very well versus teams that actually try and play football (hence our wins this season).

We’re not out yet.

 

[Swansman]

Makes me tired

 

[Weststander]

The Talksport Supercomputer (work experience slave with a spreadsheet) has predicted :

https://talksport.com/football/6770...super-computer-predicts-premier-league-table/

Seems to be a consensus on Bmuff to drop.

So it’s between us and Villa. Which team is more likely to chalk up wins?

 

[Weststander]

Are people really looking at Bournemouth and Aston Villa’s fixtures and thinking they can pick up 3+ wins?

Their fixtures are harder than ours, we’ve also picked up 3 of our 6 wins against Arsenal, Tottenham and Everton so not out of the realms to have a few upsets. If anything playing against teams with more possessions plays into our hands, rather than teams that have been sitting 11 behind the ball

Villa are still to play SheffU who’s form has dipped, Newcastle, CP and West Ham. With Grealish and McGinn back soon, it’s not a foregone conclusion that they can’t get three wins.

 

[Not Andy Naylor]

Seems to be a consensus on Bmuff to drop.

So it’s between us and Villa. Which team is more likely to chalk up wins?

The one that spent £8m on a striker in January.

 

[kevo]

Don't discount Newcastle. They are awful and only above us because they had a couple of extremely lucky results a few weeks ago.

 

[Uh_huh_him]

Are people really looking at Bournemouth and Aston Villa’s fixtures and thinking they can pick up 3+ wins?

Their fixtures are harder than ours, we’ve also picked up 3 of our 6 wins against Arsenal, Tottenham and Everton so not out of the realms to have a few upsets. If anything playing against teams with more possessions plays into our hands, rather than teams that have been sitting 11 behind the ball[/QUOTE]


Yeah I agree with the theory.
Every time i do the fishy predictor thing, I have us finishing comfortably above them.
However are we capable of getting the results we "should" get?

This is as optimistic as I can get at present.

Draws with:
Wolves, Arsenal, Burnley, Southampton, Norwich, United

Wins against:
Newcasle

Lose to:
Liverpool, City, Leicester

This feels like a bit of a stretch at present

 

[Dolph Ins]

The seasons we were on the verge of promotion (in play-offs) I assumed we would do a WBA and yo-yo between the leagues a few times before we could establish ourselves in the prem (if indeed we ever could). 3 (slightly uncomfortable) seasons in the prem is better than I expected and we still have a decent chance of making it 4.

However if we do get relegated then I think we are in a pretty good shape. I can't think of any squad member who won't thrive in the champ, our U23's are 3rd in the league and have scored the most goals in that league, we are not paying any 'prem' players a kings ransom our manager has experience in that league and our owner is still backing us. It may take a couple of seasons to get back up but I think we have a good chance.

For the very vast bulk of the 50 odd years I have supported this club we have not been bothering the top teams, so if we drop down and can compete in the Champ I am still watching a team vastly superior to the majority of Brighton teams I have watched over the years and in vastly improved surroundings.

Chin up!

 

[Not Andy Naylor]

On current form we are certainties for the drop and as much as I am like everyone else desperate for us to stay up after Saturday I really believe the writing is on the wall. I have seen us play some of the best football ever this season at times yet here we are winless so far this year and although it would not surprise me if we won 5 or 6 of our last ten it would also not surprise me if we don't win any of them. We haven't won when we've played teams off the park and through lack of confidence lack of luck and just as important lack of premier league experience (manager wise) it just feels that our destiny is back to the championship and Tony Bloom's gamble with Mr Potter will backfire. The pundits/media who said be careful what you wish for maybe will be proved right!

By lack of experience in the manager, do you mean his willingness to let Andone go with no attempt to replace him, either in summer or January? Because that, for me, is the biggest error. Andone may have fallen foul of the 'no dickheads' rule, but as I've said elsewhere, teams full of dickheads will stay up while we go down. He has pace that none of our other strikers possess and he scores vital goals. Two winners against Huddersfield last season, for instance, and both headers. Where would we have been without them?

 

[Jesus Gul]

Watford will be without Deflo...Delofu...Defleou...their number 7 for the rest of the season. Could still play a part

 

[oldboyroy]

By lack of experience in the manager, do you mean his willingness to let Andone go with no attempt to replace him, either in summer or January? Because that, for me, is the biggest error. Andone may have fallen foul of the 'no dickheads' rule, but as I've said elsewhere, teams full of dickheads will stay up while we go down. He has pace that none of our other strikers possess and he scores vital goals. Two winners against Huddersfield last season, for instance, and both headers. Where would we have been without them?

I mean general premier league experience it's all well and good being manager at lower levels but the premier as we all know its a different beast. You could include the Andone not being replaced and I would include locadia in that as well both could score goals with limited game time they had.

 

[Weststander]

By lack of experience in the manager, do you mean his willingness to let Andone go with no attempt to replace him, either in summer or January? Because that, for me, is the biggest error. Andone may have fallen foul of the 'no dickheads' rule, but as I've said elsewhere, teams full of dickheads will stay up while we go down. He has pace that none of our other strikers possess and he scores vital goals. Two winners against Huddersfield last season, for instance, and both headers. Where would we have been without them?

I don’t personally think that GP is stubborn, narrow minded. Just completely inexperienced at this level and perhaps too confident in his ideas being the answer to our survival in arguably the most difficult football division in world football.

I don’t imagine that GP said to the Board last December, that we need a quality CF to progress the club and be sure of staying up.

I wonder if the Board and Ashworth should have insisted, not solely listening to the meekly confident GP.