Points needed for 2nd

[Baldseagull]

That other thread (which is preferable, a point ahead or a game in hand) has put me in a shitty mood. We all have our faults, and among my worst are being a smartarse and having a severe intolerance of stupidity. It's a horrible combination that makes me a bit of a **** at times.

Agreed.

 

[jevs]

86 points will get us second.

I believe this is what we'll end up with too

Not if two other teams get 87 points you wont.

 

[ipad1977]

I did this a few weeks ago after 34 games but I’ve now updated to 38 games for the same years and showing points achieved…..

Looking back at league tables from the last 20 or so years and selecting positions from these years where there were 4 teams with 60+ points (but nobody over 75) after 38 games. In fact last season is a good example….
After 38 the top 4 were….
Watford 72
Boro 72
B’mth 70
Norw 67

And at the end we had…
B’mth on 90 (20 points from 8 games)
Watford 89 (17)
Norwich 86 (19)
Boro 83 (11)

Taking another season (06-07) on 38 games we had…
Brum 70 (from 37)
Derby 70
S’land 67
PNE 65 (37)
At the end we had…
Sunderland 88 (21 points from 8 games)
Brum 86 (16 from 9)
Derby 84 (14)
WBA 76 (13)
(PNE 7th on 74 – 9pts from 9 games)

And in the 11-12 season after 38 games….
Saints 75
Reading 70
WHU 68 (from 37)
BHA 61
At the end…..
Reading 89 (19 points from 8 games)
Saints 88 (13)
WHU 86 (18 from 9)
Brum 76 (17 from 9)
(BHA 10th on 66 - 5pts from 8)

I think the point to take here is that when the table is very close the teams involved don’t play with the freedom and confidence that they may have done beforehand. Points are much more difficult to come by and upsets are more common that if a team already has a big lead. In all 3 of these seasons 90 points would have won promotion and usually the title. Also, the teams that won the title had a very good run but that wasn’t matched by the others. Of the teams finishing below 1st (10 of them listed) only 3 managed 2pts per game or better (and all were promoted).

Think Boro actually finished on 85 points last year which gives a range of 13 to 20 points across the top 4 in the last 8 games. At this stage it's still a bit vague, but if this season's trends follow last in terms of points per game accumulated we can therefore expect a range of;

Hull 81-88 points
Boro 85-92 points
Brighton 84-91 points
Burnley 88-95 points

All to play for then!

 

[Triggaaar]

Agreed.

Thanks

 

[Diablo]

Points needed for 2nd ?

simple.....more points than third place or perhaps same no of points but better goal difference.

 

[The Sock of Poskett]

A few games back I was of the view that 89 points would be enough to get us in the top two. Still think that is pretty much nailed on.
How we get the necessary points remains to be seen, but if we can find six wins it won't matter if we lose the other two (and think we could even afford to lose to Burnley and Boro). All to play for

 

[Couldn't Be Hyypia]

I

Think Boro actually finished on 85 points last year which gives a range of 13 to 20 points across the top 4 in the last 8 games. At this stage it's still a bit vague, but if this season's trends follow last in terms of points per game accumulated we can therefore expect a range of;

Hull 81-88 points
Boro 85-92 points
Brighton 84-91 points
Burnley 88-95 points

All to play for then!

That Boro game looking more and more important isn't it. Newcastle in '79 anyone?

 

[Paddy B]

I am CONVINCED that we will need 3 points at Boro for 2nd. Anything less will mean play offs

 

[el punal]

We lost to Palace not because they were hell bent on revenge for getting dicked on Paddy's day but because we were far, far too cautious. It was clear to see that Palace were very nervous in the opening twenty minutes or so, fearing that we'd come out all guns blazing and tear them a new one like we had three months earlier. As the first half progressed and the onslaught never came they grew and grew in confidence.

If we'd gone at them from the start we would have beaten them. Instead we let them into the game and it all went very, very pear shaped.

I think there was another agenda on that day that had an effect on the outcome.

 

[OzMike]

I think Hull and Wednesday have the easiest run ins of the top 6, but for the rest of us it is pretty much the same.

 

[dazzer6666]

I am CONVINCED that we will need 3 points at Boro for 2nd. Anything less will mean play offs

Same here. Hotel booked yesterday...

 

[Biscuit]

Not if two other teams get 87 points you wont.

In the bag mate :thumbs: No idea why everyone's getting so upset.

Burnley FC, 1 point.
Birmingham, 1 point.
Nottm Forest, 3 points.
Fulham, 3 points.
QPR, 3 points.
Charlton, 3 points.
Derby County, 0 points. (The big slip up)
Middlesbrough, 1 point.

86 points, job done.

 

[Albion my Albion]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0RAlrzcdfRY

 

[Sweeney Todd]

I have a feeling that we have one barnstorming performance in us (against Burnley, probably) and one slip-up (QPR, I guess). The rest of the games will be workmanlike victories.

 

[Goldstone1976]

I have a feeling that we have one barnstorming performance in us (against Burnley, probably) and one slip-up (QPR, I guess). The rest of the games will be workmanlike victories.

So, 21 out of 24, leaving us on 92 points then? Seriously? Can I have some of what you've been drinking please?

 

[Turkey]

Of the 27 second tier seasons to span 46 games these are the points totals of the clubs finishing in 3rd place. So we'd need a better GD or a point more than these totals to win promotion in those years gone by. It looks like this season could be at the higher end of this list. Boro's PPG at the moment would have them finish on 87 points, so we'd be looking at 88 points currently.

1998 Sunderland 90
1993 Portsmouth 88
2001 Bolton 87
2000 Ipswich 87
2015 Norwich 86
2012 West Ham 86
2002 Wolves 86
1999 Ipswich 86
2014 Derby 85
2005 Ipswich 85
2007 Derby 84
1991 Sheff Wed 82
2006 Watford 81
1989 Crystal Palace 81
2011 Swansea 80
2009 Sheff Utd 80
2003 Sheff Utd 80
1990 Newcastle 80
2010 Nottm Forest 79
2004 Sunderland 79
1992 Derby 78
2013 Watford 77
1995 Bolton 77
1997 Wolves 76
2008 Hull 75
1996 Crystal Palace 75
1994 Millwall 74

 

[Sweeney Todd]

So, 21 out of 24, leaving us on 92 points then? Seriously? Can I have some of what you've been drinking please?

The slip-up (against QPR) will be a draw, so make that 94 points.

 

[Boro5707]

I am CONVINCED that we will need 3 points at Boro for 2nd. Anything less will mean play offs

If that's the case and it may well be. Then I think Brighton will have to do what no other league club has done since August 2014 and score 2 goals at the Riverside.

If you look at the stats over the season, on paper our hardest game is away to Bolton, as our away games against the bottom half sides is disgraceful and might well cost us.

Away games against bottom half teams

P11 W4 D2 L5 F7 A9 Pts14

 

[Garry Nelson's Left Foot]

Of the 27 second tier seasons to span 46 games these are the points totals of the clubs finishing in 3rd place. So we'd need a better GD or a point more than these totals to win promotion in those years gone by. It looks like this season could be at the higher end of this list. Boro's PPG at the moment would have them finish on 87 points, so we'd be looking at 88 points currently.

1998 Sunderland 90
1993 Portsmouth 88
2001 Bolton 87
2000 Ipswich 87
2015 Norwich 86
2012 West Ham 86
2002 Wolves 86
1999 Ipswich 86
2014 Derby 85
2005 Ipswich 85
2007 Derby 84
1991 Sheff Wed 82
2006 Watford 81
1989 Crystal Palace 81
2011 Swansea 80
2009 Sheff Utd 80
2003 Sheff Utd 80
1990 Newcastle 80
2010 Nottm Forest 79
2004 Sunderland 79
1992 Derby 78
2013 Watford 77
1995 Bolton 77
1997 Wolves 76
2008 Hull 75
1996 Crystal Palace 75
1994 Millwall 74

Excellent work. 87 -89 points should do it. So at least another 16 points. We're going to need five, possibly six, more wins.

I think we really need to beat Burnley so we can sow some doubt in their minds. Ending their winning run and bringing ourselves and Middlesbrough (and Hull?)within striking distance should get them sweating a bit and hopefully losing confidence.

I am LOVING this season-it's so exciting!

 

[LlcoolJ]

Excellent work. 87 -89 points should do it. So at least another 16 points. We're going to need five, possibly six, more wins.

I think we really need to beat Burnley so we can sow some doubt in their minds. Ending their winning run and bringing ourselves and Middlesbrough (and Hull?)within striking distance should get them sweating a bit and hopefully losing confidence.

I am LOVING this season-it's so exciting!

They drew with Wolves on Saturday.