[Albion] Odds to win at home

[dangull]

It could be a case of back to parking the bus tactics again. I have no problem with that tactic for this particular game. Burnley have achieved a few decent results against Liverpool in recent matches.

 

[Weststander]

Looking at the Everton match highlights on youtube, they had a load of chances and half chances in the first half, and again in the last 10 minutes. Liverpool’s forwards are far better than Everton’s, so it’s going to be bloody hard to shut them out.

Hard to know whether CH should adopt his Alamo mass deep defence, or the positive football that took ManU apart.

 

[dwayne]

Looking at the Everton match highlights on youtube, they had a load of chances and half chances in the first half, and again in the last 10 minutes. Liverpool’s forwards are far better than Everton’s, so it’s going to be bloody hard to shut them out.

Hard to know whether CH should adopt his Alamo mass deep defence, or the positive football that took ManU apart.

Definitely not the system used against man u.

We have to go ultra defensive and niggle away at them. I would almost be tempted to play knocky for this one as he offers better cover than locadia and works harder. Andone should also start.

Sent from my SM-G950F using Tapatalk

 

[Triggaaar]

I can fully understand why we would be long priced to beat the likely champions but 10/1 is MASSIVE!

Anyone going to be tempted?

Not me. I've no idea what our chances really are, but it feels like an impossible task. Liverpool don't seem likely to get someone sent off early doors, which would be our best chance, and even then I wouldn't be confident.

 

[Triggaaar]

I wouldn't take that bet.

We're playing Bournemouth on Saturday.

You have earned a pedant star.

Well, it's New Year and I'm feeling generous.

 

[Triggaaar]

If you have 6 throws, the odds of getting any one of the numbers overall is 6/6.

Er, no it's not. The chances of getting any specific one of the numbers is 2/3 (as in, you'll get it 2 times out of 3).

Its amazing how many eejits just can't see this. Some actually 'think' that if you throw a die 5 times and the 6 hasn't come up, the odds of it coming up next throw is evens. If gambling were that easy we'd all be minted. You have to bet on all 6 throws, from before the first throw, to get the evens odds

That's also not how it works Harry.

 

[jackanada]

As with many problems like this, you must reverse the problem slightly. In order to find the probability that you will get a 6 at least once, you must first find the probability that you will NOT get a 6 any of those times. This is much easier.

Say p = probability of getting a 6 on each throw = 1/6.

p' = probability of NOT getting a 6 on each throw is 1-p = 5/6.

When you want to compute the probability of multiple (independent) events happening, you must multiply their individual probabilities (not add them). So

The probability of not getting a 6 n times = p' to the nth power.

in this case (5/6) ^6 = 15,625 / 46,656 ~ 0.334
But this is the probability of NOT getting a 6 even once. And there there are only two possibilities: either we will never see a 6, or we will see it at least once. So the probability of getting at least one 6 is 1 minus this or about 0.666.

 

[Triggaaar]

in this case (5/6) ^6 = 15,625 / 46,656 ~ 0.334
But this is the probability of NOT getting a 6 even once. And there there are only two possibilities: either we will never see a 6, or we will see it at least once. So the probability of getting at least one 6 is 1 minus this or about 0.666.

Yes, 2/3, as I said.