Number of Deaths

[WATFORD zero]

I have an idea. Can we assume that although every country measures cases and deaths differently, they generally use the same rubric on a day to day basis? I think we can (when they don't the absolute numbers jerk around like they have done a couple of times in France and once in China). Let us assume so for he moment. We can then calculate the ratio of cases to deaths in each country. These numbers will all be different. In themselves they don't mean anything much, and are not comparable between nations to any great deegree. However these numbers will stay constant if the rate of new cases matches the rate of deaths.

Consequently, it is reasonable to deduce that the rate of new cases will match the rate of deaths if we are in steady state, or plateau; the ratio (let's call it my statistic) will be constant in a country. Thus if we look at the difference in this statistic from one day to the next the difference should be zero if we are at plateau. Before we reach plateau the rate of increase of new cases will be greater than the rate of increase in deaths so the difference between consecutive days (monday minus Tuesday, say) will be positive. When we are over the plateau the rate of increase of deaths will exceed the rate of increase of deaths and my statitsic will go negative.

What I have found is this all hangs together. My statistic has been falling from positive values in every country higher up the cases table on a day to day basis for a couple of weeks, and in the last couple of days the daily differences have reached zero, and even gone negative in some countries. I have been posting the data.

So there is no need to look at absolute cases and absolute deaths. I doubt we will have a real clue about absolute numbers for months, if ever for some countries. But we can look at ratios and their trends and I think this is giving the clearest picture of what is happening worldwide i terms of predicting increases in cases, plateau and downturn.

At present there is clear evidence of downturn, started or about to start, worldwide. What we don't know yet is if this will sustain or bottom out. My statistic may detect early signs, though. Actually, let's not use English understantement and fake vagueness, the statistic will detect this.

I have every confidence in your statistical analysis and the trends it is showing. (It's why I keep on wondering about this seasonal aspect, even though we are told it isn't). What I am saying is that you can't compare one countries figures with another as we have no idea of there methods of acquiring those figures. Although I agree that if those methods are consistent, the analysis of them is consistent and an excellent basis for analysis, and in turn, for making decisions.

All I am interested in, is what the accurate fatality figure is in the UK. The reason I started looking for the true figure was because, two weeks ago, the ONS actually published a fatality figure from over a week before, that was significantly in excess of the figure announced by the Government that day. (A similar situation to this week when the Government announced a daily figure, and on the same day, published that we had passed that figure two weeks ago).

Bit of a dog with a stick, but since I can now calculate the deaths with what I believe to be a very high degree of accuracy, I have been. I believe this figure is important to the UK decision making process, together with the trend analysis that you are reporting.

*edit*

If they add new deaths but not new cases this will make our cases to deaths ratio suddenly become smaller. If they add new cases from the care homes it should stay the same. I have a feeling they will count as new cases only those cases that resulted in deaths which is incorrect. My guess is we won't see a massive change in the ratio of cases to deaths.

Well one of us is going to have to rework some numbers and my bet is it won't be you.

*further edit*

Really excellent and thanks. I think everyone should bear that in mind, particularly when emoting about possible numbers. We need to be patient and then, eventually, we will have a clear picture. I am not aiming that comment at [MENTION=396]WATFORD zero[/MENTION] btw who is applying a scientific view, but at some posters who start to froth at the mouth a little and lose sight of objectivity.

Thank you. I try

(and holding 3 way conversations on a forum is hard work)

 

[Harry Wilson's tackle]

I have every confidence in your statistical analysis and the trends it is showing. (It's why I keep on wondering about this seasonal aspect, even though we are told it isn't). What I am saying is that you can't compare one countries figures with another as we have no idea of there methods of acquiring those figures. Although I agree that if those methods are consistent, the analysis of them is consistent and an excellent basis for analysis, and in turn, for making decisions.

All I am interested in, is what the accurate fatality figure is in the UK. The reason I started looking for the true figure was because, two weeks ago, the ONS actually published a fatality figure from over a week before, that was significantly in excess of the figure announced by the Government that day. (A similar situation to this week when the Government announced a daily figure, and on the same day, published that we had passed that figure two weeks ago).

Bit of a dog with a stick, but since I can now calculate the deaths with what I believe to be a very high degree of accuracy, I have been. I believe this figure is important to the UK decision making process, together with the trend analysis that you are reporting.

Mate, I realise that. I just edited a post above to reflect that. No arguments from me.

 

[Weststander]

So basically, we cannot compare with Italy and Spain, but can compare with France ?

I think you're right, and Belgium.

Even with France's highly centralised care home system, it took ages from their first covid death on 14th Feb, until they were able to start incorporating care home covid deaths into their published stats on 1st April. But they did.

Italy and Spain fail to release non-hospital death totals, ever. I guess they were inundated with deaths, some of the stories are shocking eg the Spanish police breaking into care homes to find the all patients dead, the staff had done a runner.
https://www.businessinsider.com/coronavirus-spain-elderly-care-homes-dead-madrid-ice-rink-morgues-2020-3?r=US&IR=T

 

[Yoda]

According to the Guardian, Italy and Spain do not report non-hospital covid deaths in the figures released. Confirmed by Spanish and Italian sources.

The comparative graph produced at the daily Downing Street press conference each day, with two lines for the UK, only includes hospital deaths for Italy and Spain.

A separate Guardian article highlighted:
An Italian government survey of 10% of care homes found that 45% of covid deaths in Italy could be in care homes. If they’re correct, their true death toll is 27,359 * 100 / 55 = 50,000, plus covid victims who’ve died at home.

Similarly for Spain, a leaked Spanish government document suggested 57% of the country’s death toll was in care homes.

They, like us, also report on Deaths of people WITH or SUSPECTED TO BE INFECTED WITH Covid-19, whether that was the actual cause of death or not. China & Germany for example have been reporting deaths FROM Covid-19.

 

[Weststander]

They, like us, also report on Deaths of people WITH or SUSPECTED TO BE INFECTED WITH Covid-19, whether that was the actual cause of death or not. China & Germany for example have been reporting deaths FROM Covid-19.

Yep, another difference between nations.

It will take academic studies in the years to come, to calculate the realistic and estimated loss of life from covid19 across the planet.

I disagree with Trump on just about everything, but when he sneers at the China and Iran mortality figures as being laughingly low for political reasons, it's hard to disagree with him.

 

[Harry Wilson's tackle]

Same trends today. Plateau still. Johns Hopkins have not properly updated GB figures, Stand by for wobbly numbers tomorrow.

 

[LamieRobertson]

Morbidly fascinating

 

[daveinplzen]

The total number of coronavirus deaths in the UK is 26,097, Public Health England said, including an additional 3,811 deaths in England since the start of the outbreak
Not quite sure, but from what I remember (i'll check tomorrow), less than 300 deaths in CZ. I realise the difference in size of population but even so, its good news. Thought the state of emergency that was declared here on March 16th was a bit OTT, but if that figure is correct, it was clearly the right approach.

 

[darkwolf666]

The total number of coronavirus deaths in the UK is 26,097, Public Health England said, including an additional 3,811 deaths in England since the start of the outbreak
Not quite sure, but from what I remember (i'll check tomorrow), less than 300 deaths in CZ. I realise the difference in size of population but even so, its good news. Thought the state of emergency that was declared here on March 16th was a bit OTT, but if that figure is correct, it was clearly the right approach.

If some of the figures from around Europe are to be believed, without question, then questions do need to be asked as to how and why some countries appeared to deal with things so differently?

 

[daveinplzen]

Checked and latest figure on Tuesday is 227 deaths here wiith 70 or 80 in hospital in critical condition
Like I said, at the time I thought state of emergency on March 16th was ott. Pretty much slammed country shut and facemasks by law if outside your home.

 

[WATFORD zero]

They, like us, also report on Deaths of people WITH or SUSPECTED TO BE INFECTED WITH Covid-19, whether that was the actual cause of death or not. China & Germany for example have been reporting deaths FROM Covid-19.

I don't know, but this is what Public Health England are quoted as saying is the basis for the new figures yesterday

Public Health England (PHE) has developed a new method of reporting daily COVID-19 deaths, to give a more complete number of those who have died from the virus. For the first time from today, Wednesday 29 April 2020, the government’s daily figure will include deaths that have occurred in all settings where there has been a positive COVID-19 test, including hospitals, care homes and the wider community.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/

These new daily figures being stated are still significantly less than those being reported by the ONS. Maybe that's part of the difference as, up to now, I don't think there has been any significant testing outside of hospitals ?

The trouble is there is so much conflicting information out there

For completeness, using the ONS basis, I have calculated that the actual total fatalities yesterday were greater than 36,091.

 

[Billy the Fish]

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/apr/30/coronavirus-deaths-how-does-britain-compare-with-other-countries

Good article that was referenced in the press conference today

 

[Harry Wilson's tackle]

Here's my update. Steady as she goes.

UK new deaths update has give a positive number which, in context, most likey means they have updated deaths with care home deaths without actually recording them as actual cases. Sometimes I dispair. But glitches don't affect the overall picture.

 

[Birdie Boy]

Here's my update. Steady as she goes.

UK new deaths update has give a positive number which, in context, most likey means they have updated deaths with care home deaths without actually recording them as actual cases. Sometimes I dispair. But glitches don't affect the overall picture.
View attachment 122983

I think there is an error in your death numbers for UK... [emoji17]

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[Harry Wilson's tackle]

I think there is an error in your death numbers for UK... [emoji17]

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You will realise they are not my numbers. I already posted about how the lurch in out new numbers will ptobably add the care home deaths without adding care hime cases, making my statistic increase for a day. This is exactly what has happened. It will pop back to near zero with the next set of numbers. I expect.

 

[Birdie Boy]

You will realise they are not my numbers. I already posted about how the lurch in out new numbers will ptobably add the care home deaths without adding care hime cases, making my statistic increase for a day. This is exactly what has happened. It will pop back to near zero with the next set of numbers. I expect.

Yep, I realise that but thought that jumping from 21,xxx to 26,xxx deaths in 1 day is huge. Or, is this care homes added?

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[darkwolf666]

You will realise they are not my numbers. I already posted about how the lurch in out new numbers will ptobably add the care home deaths without adding care hime cases, making my statistic increase for a day. This is exactly what has happened. It will pop back to near zero with the next set of numbers. I expect.

Did BG bequeath you his old phone in his will?

 

[Birdie Boy]

Yep, I realise that but thought that jumping from 21,xxx to 26,xxx deaths in 1 day is huge. Or, is this care homes added?

Edit. Apologies , I've not read your reply properly.

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[Harry Wilson's tackle]

Yep, I realise that but thought that jumping from 21,xxx to 26,xxx deaths in 1 day is huge. Or, is this care homes added?

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That's home care added

 

[Notters]

Today's graph as no-one else has posted it. Not sure if it should go here or in the main thread?