New FFP rules - can we go for it?

[Triggaaar]

I am sure we will play the game fairly, but there will be a lot of chairman that will be thinking '**** it, might as well go big this year'. The FA have no balls to impose any fines, so what is the point.

I think that applied to previous seasons, but the for the season coming up you can go for it without breaking the rules, as the loss isn't calculated until after 3 seasons are complete.

 

[El Presidente]

I am sure we will play the game fairly, but there will be a lot of chairman that will be thinking '**** it, might as well go big this year'. The FA have no balls to impose any fines, so what is the point. The clubs that do over spend have lots of money, therefore a fine is worth the risk. If it was a points deduction the following season, then they might start to control the spending.

Not possible to have a points deduction given that the Premier League and Football League are completely separate bodies.

Also, has been seen with the QPR situation, once the lawyers are involved things tend to drag on and on.

 

[Seasidesage]

And so it begins, from Sky



New Aston Villa owner Tony Xia says he will spend between £30m and £40m during the transfer window on new players.

The Recon Group, owned by the Chinese businessman Xia, bought the relegated Premier League club on Wednesday from Randy Lerner.

Recon Group is Dr Xia's privately owned holding company that owns the controlling interest in five publicly-listed companies on the Hong Kong and Chinese stock exchanges and many other private companies employing 35,000 people in 75 countries.

The deal is for 100 per cent ownership and will go through subject to approval by the Premier League and Football League.

It is understood that Roberto Di Matteo is the preferred candidate for the manager's job and has already spoken to chairman Steve Hollis and departing owner Randy Lerner and will next speak with Xia next week.

Aston Villa were relegated to the Championship on April 16

And Xia says he is willing to spend large sums of money on players during the transfer window to help get Aston Villa straight back up into the Premier League.

"If Aston Villa can return to the Premier League, the purchase price would be more than £100m," he told Sky Sports News HQ.


"The prize would be at least £75m [if Villa could not get back to the Premier League]. Now we plan to spend £30m to £40m on new players for the upcoming season to reconstruct the current first team squad."

 

[Triggaaar]

It's technically feasible to have a shit or bust approach in one season. But if you sign a few players for £10 million each, and incur losses in the region of £39 million in year 1, without achieving promotion then it would be almost impossible to achieve breakeven in years 2 and 3.

This is because either (a) the players signed are crap, but on stupid money, and so refuse to go elsewhere.

It won't work if you sign a few expensive and crap players. Given our recent recruitment, do we think we'd do that?

If the club does sell the players, there is a high chance they will be sold at a considerable loss, due to either not being as good as originally estimated, or being offered for fire sale prices. The losses on these sales would increase costs in years 2 and 3.

That depends how long said players had on their contract.

It's a spectacularly stupid way to do business.

I expect Middlesbrough have broken FFP this year. We've lost a lot of money, they've been promoted and they will receive a lot of PL cash. Bournemouth spent big. Leicester spent big. Sometimes it works, sometimes it doesn't, I don't think it's accurate to say it is categorically a stupid way to do business, as it can work, and the alternative can fail.

 

[Bob!]

Our club have consistently shown that they wish to operate within the FFP limits. However, the rules change for the next season.

The limit for £2015/16 was a loss of £13m
The limit for the next 3 seasons is a loss of £39m (if you stay in the Championship) and even more if you get promoted after one or two seasons - but you could lose all of that in the first year.

Does this mean we can go for it next season, but still stay within FFP limits?

Yes, Yes it does.

 

[El Presidente]

More importantly.

Are QPR ever going to pay the fine?

My understanding from sources close to the Football League (and NOT anything to do with the Albion), is that the QPR situation is ongoing and is regularly discussed at FL board meetings. The FL are however so scared of QPR's lawyers that the contents of the regular board discussions are not minuted, as they don't want to give the lawyers any clues as to the FL's actions.

If the FFP rules are applied appropriately then an FFP fine, which is payable to charity, of approximately £58 million. Expect to see a fraction of that being finally paid, in the region of £8-10 million. Both sides will claim victory, and deserving charities will be deprived of about £50 million.

This has nothing to do with fairness, equality or anything of a similar ilk, and all to do with the vanity of the rich, QPR's owners are worth about £16 billion between them, so the money is there, but the ego of the owners is pre-eminent.

 

[El Presidente]

Yes, Yes it does.

But it would be very dumb.

 

[crookie]

And so it begins, from Sky



New Aston Villa owner Tony Xia says he will spend between £30m and £40m during the transfer window on new players.

The Recon Group, owned by the Chinese businessman Xia, bought the relegated Premier League club on Wednesday from Randy Lerner.

Recon Group is Dr Xia's privately owned holding company that owns the controlling interest in five publicly-listed companies on the Hong Kong and Chinese stock exchanges and many other private companies employing 35,000 people in 75 countries.

The deal is for 100 per cent ownership and will go through subject to approval by the Premier League and Football League.

It is understood that Roberto Di Matteo is the preferred candidate for the manager's job and has already spoken to chairman Steve Hollis and departing owner Randy Lerner and will next speak with Xia next week.

Aston Villa were relegated to the Championship on April 16

And Xia says he is willing to spend large sums of money on players during the transfer window to help get Aston Villa straight back up into the Premier League.

"If Aston Villa can return to the Premier League, the purchase price would be more than £100m," he told Sky Sports News HQ.


"The prize would be at least £75m [if Villa could not get back to the Premier League]. Now we plan to spend £30m to £40m on new players for the upcoming season to reconstruct the current first team squad."

Villa spent £62million last season on incoming players.
http://www.soccernews.com/soccer-transfers/english-premier-league-transfers/
That worked out well didn't it. It is frustrating, someone else coming in and throwing money around like there's no tomorrow, but there's no guarantee it will buy you success. Compare Villa's season to Leicester's , who spent less than half of what Villa did.

 

[Seagull58]

Parachutes:

The new rules will not affect the three clubs most recently relegated from the top flight - Hull, QPR and Burnley. They will receive £64m split over four years - £24m in the first year, then £19.3m, then £9.6m for each of the next two years.

From the 2016/17 season, relegated clubs will receive 55 per cent of the equal share of broadcast revenue paid to Premier League clubs in the first year after relegation, 45 per cent the following year and 20 per cent in year three.


Clubs relegated after a single season will receive 55 per cent and 45 per cent over two seasons with the third payment eliminated entirely.

http://www.skysports.com/football/n...-overhauled-for-promoted-premier-league-clubs

Comment: rumours of players coming in will be worthless. Eveything will have to be done in cold war secrecy. How can we compete with Villa, Newcastle and Norwich?

But FFP does not apply to QPR. They have got special and unique dispensation from their lawyers to spend as much as they want.

 

[Triggaaar]

If the FFP rules are applied appropriately then an FFP fine, which is payable to charity, of approximately £58 million. Expect to see a fraction of that being finally paid, in the region of £8-10 million. Both sides will claim victory, and deserving charities will be deprived of about £50 million.

This has nothing to do with fairness, equality or anything of a similar ilk, and all to do with the vanity of the rich, QPR's owners are worth about £16 billion between them

IMO not all to do with QPR, but also to do with the FL being spineless.

But it would be very dumb.

As above, not necessarily.

 

[El Presidente]

It won't work if you sign a few expensive and crap players. Given our recent recruitment, do we think we'd do that?

Elvis Manu? James Wilson? Only need a couple of expensive turkeys.

That depends how long said players had on their contract.

It would be dumb to sign a £10 million player on a 2 year contract. We are already looking nervously at the Dale Stephens situation, and he signed a 3 1/2 year deal which has one year to go. To sign a player on a 2 year deal means that if he is good you are in an awkward situation after the first season, as unlikely to get your money back if other clubs come a knocking.

I expect Middlesbrough have broken FFP this year. We've lost a lot of money, they've been promoted and they will receive a lot of PL cash. Bournemouth spent big. Leicester spent big. Sometimes it works, sometimes it doesn't, I don't think it's accurate to say it is categorically a stupid way to do business, as it can work, and the alternative can fail.

Derby spent big, and they are out of contention, with a potential transfer embargo next season. I'd expect the Albion to announce record losses, for reasons given in my analysis of the accounts for 2014/15, which I will highlight here

The losses announced were £10.4 million, which seemed broadly in line with the previous season. However, if you delve into the footnotes you find this



As you can see, those losses were cushioned by a £8.7 million profit from selling Ulloa and Buckley. Had those two not been sold the losses would have been £19.1 million.

This season we have not sold any players at a significant profit, and costs I suspect will have increased, as the new contract for Lewis Dunk, plus the signings of Manu, Hunnemeier, Hemed, Knockaert and Skalak have all been for significant sums, with wages that are commensurate with those transfer fees. On the plus side we have CMS's wages off the books.

The Albion do have professionals at the top, and I'm sure they already know to the nearest pound how close the club are to the £13 million FFP limit for 2015/6 (and remember some costs, such as depreciation and youth development are excluded) but to a certain extent we did 'go for it' this season.

 

[El Presidente]

As above, not necessarily.

I wouldn't spend all my money on lottery tickets, simply because one might win me a jackpot.

 

[Ernest]

And so it begins, from Sky



New Aston Villa owner Tony Xia says he will spend between £30m and £40m during the transfer window on new players.

The Recon Group, owned by the Chinese businessman Xia, bought the relegated Premier League club on Wednesday from Randy Lerner.

Recon Group is Dr Xia's privately owned holding company that owns the controlling interest in five publicly-listed companies on the Hong Kong and Chinese stock exchanges and many other private companies employing 35,000 people in 75 countries.

The deal is for 100 per cent ownership and will go through subject to approval by the Premier League and Football League.

It is understood that Roberto Di Matteo is the preferred candidate for the manager's job and has already spoken to chairman Steve Hollis and departing owner Randy Lerner and will next speak with Xia next week.

Aston Villa were relegated to the Championship on April 16

And Xia says he is willing to spend large sums of money on players during the transfer window to help get Aston Villa straight back up into the Premier League.

"If Aston Villa can return to the Premier League, the purchase price would be more than £100m," he told Sky Sports News HQ.


"The prize would be at least £75m [if Villa could not get back to the Premier League]. Now we plan to spend £30m to £40m on new players for the upcoming season to reconstruct the current first team squad."

That is what you call crap, this Chinese fellows claims are already falling apart and it wouldn't be surprising if the deal didn't go through

 

[Kinky Gerbil]

My understanding from sources close to the Football League (and NOT anything to do with the Albion), is that the QPR situation is ongoing and is regularly discussed at FL board meetings. The FL are however so scared of QPR's lawyers that the contents of the regular board discussions are not minuted, as they don't want to give the lawyers any clues as to the FL's actions.

If the FFP rules are applied appropriately then an FFP fine, which is payable to charity, of approximately £58 million. Expect to see a fraction of that being finally paid, in the region of £8-10 million. Both sides will claim victory, and deserving charities will be deprived of about £50 million.

This has nothing to do with fairness, equality or anything of a similar ilk, and all to do with the vanity of the rich, QPR's owners are worth about £16 billion between them, so the money is there, but the ego of the owners is pre-eminent.

See, if I was a Forest owner I would be considering legal action against the league.

Whilst they have clearly broken the rules they seemed to be punished ( along with others) and the biggest rule breakers get away with it

 

[El Presidente]

See, if I was a Forest owner I would be considering legal action against the league.

Whilst they have clearly broken the rules they seemed to be punished ( along with others) and the biggest rule breakers get away with it

QPR's (very expensive, very aggressive) lawyers would argue otherwise though.

Whatever happens, the lawyers will get rich.

 

[Triggaaar]

Elvis Manu?

Relatively speaking he's not that expensive is he?

James Wilson?

He's been pretty sick hasn't he? I think he'll come good.

Only need a couple of expensive turkeys.

Indeed, and I certainly understand that it doesn't always work out for clubs that spend too much, but lets not pretend it's worked out for us. How much have we lost in the last 5 years? We'll lose more again next season and we'll probably miss out on promotion again.

We are currently gambling, but our stake is medium and I'm just questioning whether it's worth upping the stake. You are saying that doing so is definitely stupid, and I don't think it's that clear cut.

It would be dumb to sign a £10 million player on a 2 year contract.

That would be a very big spend. Nobody said it had to be that big. You can sign players with an option to extend as well.

Derby spent big, and they are out of contention, with a potential transfer embargo next season.

Did Derby fail FFP for 2014/15? If not, they'll be fine for the coming season, right?

The Albion do have professionals at the top, and I'm sure they already know to the nearest pound how close the club are to the £13 million FFP limit for 2015/6 (and remember some costs, such as depreciation and youth development are excluded) but to a certain extent we did 'go for it' this season.

But you think we'll have stayed with FFP right?

Losses of £13m are not insignificant, but I'm wondering whether the club are considering much larger losses over the next couple of seasons.

 

[Triggaaar]

I wouldn't spend all my money on lottery tickets, simply because one might win me a jackpot.

But we're already spending £13m a year on tickets. You're saying £13m a year is fine, but £20m a year isn't, as if it's clear cut.

See, if I was a Forest owner I would be considering legal action against the league.

Whilst they have clearly broken the rules they seemed to be punished ( along with others) and the biggest rule breakers get away with it

I completely agree, but not just Forest, all clubs. We have lost out because other clubs have broken the rules, and QPR haven't been punished which encourages other clubs to break the rules too, which isn't fair on the rest of us. The FL have created and unfair league.

 

[El Presidente]

Did Derby fail FFP for 2014/15? If not, they'll be fine for the coming season, right?
.

No they didn't. However for 2015/16 allowable FFP losses are £13 million. I think they will probably by okay, but they did gamble on Bradley Johnson (£6m) Ince (£5m) Butterfield (£4m), Shackell (£3m) Weimann (£2.8m) Blackman (£2.5m) plus paying Darren Bent a decent wedge on his Bosman deal.

Personally I'd rather the Albion build the infrastructure and go up on merit rather than chequebook.

 

[El Presidente]

But we're already spending £13m a year on tickets. You're saying £13m a year is fine, but £20m a year isn't, as if it's clear cut.

Nope, I'm saying gambling on losing £39 million in one year and then trying to break even for the next two years is not fine, it's dumb IMO.

 

[perseus]

To all intents and purposes the rules came in this past season because, as you say, there was a one-off allowable loss of £13m which is the mean average loss per season allowable under the new rules.

You would hazard a guess that is why both Derby and Boro "went for it" somewhat.

And they spent it on players without a resale value. I'm glad we bought younger players especially with our squad with older players* (although not as old as Burnley and Boro averages).

*Never though our position last season was important, but the age of our players in key positions.

Derby may have shot their bolt for expensve signings?