Main Coronavirus / Covid-19 Discussion Thread

[crodonilson]

Cases of Indian variant up from 500 to 1300 in past 7 days. We need to heavily surge test and restrict indoor hospitality in these hot spot areas as an absolute minimum, though as stated in my earlier post I would go further and hold back across the board.

Unpopular view yes, but not risk not worth it with a current uncertainty...

I think one thing we have learned so far in the pandemic is localised restrictions, especially when there are few restrictions elsewhere, do not work. It needs to be a blanket nationwide approach or not at all.

Boris can't row back on the reopening on Monday now although I strongly suspect had this information come to light a couple of weeks earlier we would be putting this reopening on hold at least until the end of the month. I do suspect though this will mean the 21st June date will be pushed back as unfortunately if cases of this variant are tripling with only outdoors meeting currently happening that will extrapolate much more severely with indoor opening and whilst 1,500 cases isn't an issue this will even at the current doubling rates be a real issue in a matter of weeks.

 

[Notters]

I keep hearing this about people who can't "get out" - who, who precisely can't get out that doesn't have an underlying serious health condition. The pubs are now open for beer garden service, and more come next Monday, shops have now been open for a while, people can holiday in the UK, and do many of the things they couldn't until recently, hug a relative, or even go and watch The Albion shortly, so who is still suffering from mental health concerns you express regarding Covid.

Unless of course you are referring to those whose mental health is suffering BECAUSE of the virus, for example the clinically extremely vulnerable, who are petrified to go out for fear of coming into contact with people who appear to believe it's all over - or do they not count anymore?

I know, protect the vulnerable, blah, blah, blah...!

Well my family live >200 miles away and my wife's >300 miles away so we've not been able to see them for some time. The threat that this could again be prevented is pretty concerning.

 

[Notters]

So when does this ever end?

The vaccine works on the variant

I think the jury is very much out on this - though happy to be proved wrong?

From the BBC:

In Bolton, the areas with the highest infections over the last week map very closely to areas with the lowest vaccination rates.

Whilst this would appear to be encouraging on the face of it - the highest infections also in inner city areas with high levels of deprivation, poor housing, overcrowding, etc. so I'm not sure you can wholly 'blame' the vaccine.

There seems to be some evidence from India that a lot of vaccinated people are still getting the virus, so I guess the key is whether they're getting it in a serious way?

 

[Butch Willykins]

I think one thing we have learned so far in the pandemic is localised restrictions, especially when there are few restrictions elsewhere, do not work. It needs to be a blanket nationwide approach or not at all.

Boris can't row back on the reopening on Monday now although I strongly suspect had this information come to light a couple of weeks earlier we would be putting this reopening on hold at least until the end of the month. I do suspect though this will mean the 21st June date will be pushed back as unfortunately if cases of this variant are tripling with only outdoors meeting currently happening that will extrapolate much more severely with indoor opening and whilst 1,500 cases isn't an issue this will even at the current doubling rates be a real issue in a matter of weeks.

Utter bobbins. It's over. We're back to normal on 21st June.

 

[crodonilson]

Utter bobbins. It's over. We're back to normal on 21st June.

This is the problem, ignorance like this, people thinking it's over and who are probably already breaking the current rules, mean we may be about to undo all the hard work of the last few months. It is far from over my friend, and even on 21st June life will not be like 'normal' from pre 2020 for some time.

 

[beorhthelm]

I think the jury is very much out on this - though happy to be proved wrong?

the jury isnt out at all https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lineage_B.1.617#Vaccine_efficacy. we've had this dance with every variant, "fears" the vaccine wont work followed by nothing because the vaccine works. we'd know about it if the vaccine didnt work because serious scientist would be explicitly saying so, not "fear". it would be a new virus, COVID-21.

Whilst this would appear to be encouraging on the face of it - the highest infections also in inner city areas with high levels of deprivation, poor housing, overcrowding, etc. so I'm not sure you can wholly 'blame' the vaccine.

There seems to be some evidence from India that a lot of vaccinated people are still getting the virus, so I guess the key is whether they're getting it in a serious way?

where vaccinated the rates will go down everywhere. if there is low vaccine uptake and higher virus, we have to assume the lack of vaccine in that community is the cause. its no coincidence TB and other vaccinated diseases are more prevalent in same communities.
the evidence from India is sketchy but there will be numbers who still get the virus - efficacy is not 100%. with Indian population that number will seem large.

 

[darkwolf666]

Utter bobbins. It's over. We're back to normal on 21st June.

I’ve taken Crodo to task over his over pessimistic daily posts on Covid of recent, however if this really is your belief then you are the antithesis of Crodo and as much of a fool, if not more so...

 

[Blue Valkyrie]

I think one thing we have learned so far in the pandemic is localised restrictions, especially when there are few restrictions elsewhere, do not work. It needs to be a blanket nationwide approach or not at all.

Boris can't row back on the reopening on Monday now although I strongly suspect had this information come to light a couple of weeks earlier we would be putting this reopening on hold at least until the end of the month. I do suspect though this will mean the 21st June date will be pushed back as unfortunately if cases of this variant are tripling with only outdoors meeting currently happening that will extrapolate much more severely with indoor opening and whilst 1,500 cases isn't an issue this will even at the current doubling rates be a real issue in a matter of weeks.

Not really.

Localised restrictions are now the way to go given that all the vaccines vastly reduce risk of death and hospitalizations from all variants so far ( including the India one ).

A new variant could potentially be a concern but we cross that bridge if we need to.

I have no time for anti-vaxxers and communities that refuse the vaccine. Darwinism can deal with them.

 

[Butch Willykins]

I’ve taken Crodo to task over his over pessimistic daily posts on Covid of recent, however if this really is your belief then you are the antithesis of Crodo and as much of a fool, if not more so...

Look at the data. Look at the vaccination program. It's all going in the right direction. This virus is never going away, like flu never goes away. But we can live with it and we will do from June 21st onwards.

 

[Butch Willykins]

This is the problem, ignorance like this, people thinking it's over and who are probably already breaking the current rules, mean we may be about to undo all the hard work of the last few months. It is far from over my friend, and even on 21st June life will not be like 'normal' from pre 2020 for some time.

Maybe not for you, but for an awful lot of people it will be (minus international travel of course).

 

[darkwolf666]

Look at the data. Look at the vaccination program. It's all going in the right direction. This virus is never going away, like flu never goes away. But we can live with it and we will do from June 21st onwards.

Going the right direction is NOT the same as its all over...

I think you may get a rude awakening come June 21st if you think "it's over"... Put it this way, don't throw away your supply of masks just yet!

 

[dazzer6666]

I think one thing we have learned so far in the pandemic is localised restrictions, especially when there are few restrictions elsewhere, do not work. It needs to be a blanket nationwide approach or not at all.

Boris can't row back on the reopening on Monday now although I strongly suspect had this information come to light a couple of weeks earlier we would be putting this reopening on hold at least until the end of the month. I do suspect though this will mean the 21st June date will be pushed back as unfortunately if cases of this variant are tripling with only outdoors meeting currently happening that will extrapolate much more severely with indoor opening and whilst 1,500 cases isn't an issue this will even at the current doubling rates be a real issue in a matter of weeks.

This is the problem, ignorance like this, people thinking it's over and who are probably already breaking the current rules, mean we may be about to undo all the hard work of the last few months. It is far from over my friend, and even on 21st June life will not be like 'normal' from pre 2020 for some time.

The two contradictory bits in bold in your posts are, I suspect, contributing largely to why we have outbreaks in very localised areas. We don't need to shut the whole country down again to deal with them, when there is no evidence that anyone vaccinated or young/healthy will likely suffer serious illness or death. If the situation changes and the variant starts to spread - and seriously affects non-vulnerable people then fair enough, but not at the current levels.

 

[nicko31]

Agree re surge testing - and now surge vaccinating that is also happening - in the hotspots (which are pretty clearly defined) but the next relaxation isn’t anything like a total relaxation of restrictions. We can see what happens and may need to reconsider what happens on June 21st.

There is nothing at all coming out at the moment that suggests anyone vaccinated or young/fit is at any greater risk from this variant in terms of death or hospitalisation than the others so whilst infections numbers may rise (this was always expected as restrictions were eased anyway, it’s just that in some areas they are rising faster than expected) it’s perhaps unlikely that we’ll see any dramatic increase in hospitalisations/deaths and if this is the case we don’t need to slow down the relaxation of restrictions

All of this actually supports the cautious release plan that was put in place, with time between the steps to reassess the position.

Yes agree the move to stage 3 isn't a a total relaxation of restrictions, being able to mix indoors in peoples houses isn't a big deal and you usually know who you are dealing with, ie friends and family. Infact other countries have had rule in 6 indoors in place even during lockdowns

The biggie though is indoor hospitality, its what really f**ked us up in the Autumn and early winter and we are going to have loads of unvaccinated people getting pissed up and mixing. Even without the unknown consequences of the India variant holding off for a few weeks until we reach 80% of adults would give us a real fighting chance of normality returning

Going too soon with stage 3 will just mean waiting longer for stage 4. June 21 will not happen as planned.

 

[crodonilson]

The two contradictory bits in bold in your posts are, I suspect, contributing largely to why we have outbreaks in very localised areas. We don't need to shut the whole country down again to deal with them, when there is no evidence that anyone vaccinated or young/healthy will likely suffer serious illness or death. If the situation changes and the variant starts to spread - and seriously affects non-vulnerable people then fair enough, but not at the current levels.

It is how both the first and second waves started, more pertinently the second one where the new variant was initially very localised and then spread and spread before it engulfed the whole country and much of the world. I think local lockdowns will only work if they are genuine lockdowns and controls are placed on people going into those areas too, otherwise they quickly gain hold in more areas, time is of the essence also 1,500 cases can be mitigated against through a circuit breaker lockdown but once those cases are into 5 figures which at the current rate will be in less than 2 weeks then you can't control it locally.

 

[dazzer6666]

It is how both the first and second waves started, more pertinently the second one where the new variant was initially very localised and then spread and spread before it engulfed the whole country and much of the world. I think local lockdowns will only work if they are genuine lockdowns and controls are placed on people going into those areas too, otherwise they quickly gain hold in more areas, time is of the essence also 1,500 cases can be mitigated against through a circuit breaker lockdown but once those cases are into 5 figures which at the current rate will be in less than 2 weeks then you can't control it locally.

No-one was vaccinated when the first and second waves started.

 

[dazzer6666]

Yes agree the move to stage 3 isn't a a total relaxation of restrictions, being able to mix indoors in peoples houses isn't a big deal and you usually know who you are dealing with, ie friends and family. Infact other countries have had rule in 6 indoors in place even during lockdowns

The biggie though is indoor hospitality, its what really f**ked us up in the Autumn and early winter and we are going to have loads of unvaccinated people getting pissed up and mixing. Even without the unknown consequences of the India variant holding off for a few weeks until we reach 80% of adults would give us a real fighting chance of normality returning

Going too soon with stage 3 will just mean waiting longer for stage 4. June 21 will not happen as planned.

I’m not going to predict that strongly but I suspect it will. The vast majority of those getting pissed and mixing won’t end up seriously ill, and will be jabbed by July anyway. As long as the hospitalisations stay low we’ll crack on. Infection numbers are key to understanding where the outbreaks are and dealing with them but not key to removal of restrictions - that’s down to the incidence of serious illness.

 

[Hotchilidog]

I’m not going to predict that strongly but I suspect it will. The vast majority of those getting pissed and mixing won’t end up seriously ill, and will be jabbed by July anyway. As long as the hospitalisations stay low we’ll crack on. Infection numbers are key to understanding where the outbreaks are and dealing with them but not key to removal of restrictions - that’s down to the incidence of serious illness.

I think this is metric by which any further relaxation or upgrading of restrictions will be measured. You do not lockdown a country for mild illness. You lockdown to prevent increased hospitalisations and deaths.

At the moment whilst case numbers are on a rise with this new variant the increase is yet to be mirrored in admissions or fatalities. Whilst I'd agree vigilance will be required over the next month, the next few weeks will give us the data we need to properly decide what the next step should be.

As it stands I think June 21 is a viable date for the lifting of restrictions.

By the end of June many millions more will have been vaccinated, we are in much better position than we were in the autumn when no-one had protection.

 

[darkwolf666]

I think this is metric by which any further relaxation or upgrading of restrictions will be measured. You do not lockdown a country for mild illness. You lockdown to prevent increased hospitalisations and deaths.

At the moment whilst case numbers are on a rise with this new variant the increase is yet to be mirrored in admissions or fatalities. Whilst I'd agree vigilance will be required over the next month, the next few weeks will give us the data we need to properly decide what the next step should be.

As it stands I think June 21 is a viable date for the lifting of restrictions.

By the end of June many millions more will have been vaccinated, we are in much better position than we were in the autumn when no-one had protection.

A sensible, measured response - you'll never make a politician or news editor!

 

[Notters]

I’m not going to predict that strongly but I suspect it will. The vast majority of those getting pissed and mixing won’t end up seriously ill, and will be jabbed by July anyway. As long as the hospitalisations stay low we’ll crack on. Infection numbers are key to understanding where the outbreaks are and dealing with them but not key to removal of restrictions - that’s down to the incidence of serious illness.

Probably much sooner than that? We're getting down to mid-30s already so surely will be well into the 20s by mid-June?

 

[atomised]

Probably much sooner than that? We're getting down to mid-30s already so surely will be well into the 20s by mid-June?

Not to mention those in the areas where the Indian variant is taking hold where the vaccine is being opened up to over 18s