Main Coronavirus / Covid-19 Discussion Thread

[Yoda]

Surely it's not about cases, but about how many of those cases end up in hospital, how many were in hospital on 28th September, and how many have died. Unfortunately we don't have that data, as the government neglected to collate data for recovered patients!

You can roughly work that out though.

Take the number of patients in hospital - the previous days figure. Minus this from the number admitted that day, minus the number of deaths that day (make sure you use date of death NOT date reported)

So, for a week ago (to allow a lag in reporting of death) the 21st say 1227 people admitted, 7768 already in hospital and 199 died. The day before there were 7507 in-patients.

The number of in-patients changed from 7507 to 7768. A difference of 261.

From this we can now work out the number discharged.

1227 - 261 - 199 = 767

 

[Yoda]

What utter garbage. This is the same organisation that said there is no evidence of human to human infection, whilst praising China's handling of the virus. When it was obvious what was going on. They also took weeks to declare it a worldwide emergency. They're a disgrace.

Lets not forget this was still the false information being relayed to them by the Chinese authorities who were trying to cover up and contain their own mess at the time.

 

[darkwolf666]

You can roughly work that out though.

Take the number of patients in hospital - the previous days figure. Minus this from the number admitted that day, minus the number of deaths that day (make sure you use date of death NOT date reported)

So, for a week ago (to allow a lag in reporting of death) the 21st say 1227 people admitted, 7768 already in hospital and 199 died. The day before there were 7507 in-patients.

The number of in-patients changed from 7507 to 7768. A difference of 261.

From this we can now work out the number discharged.

1227 - 261 - 199 = 767

I'm guessing discharged isn't recovered though, hence you get this...

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk//

 

[beorhthelm]

I'm guessing discharged isn't recovered though, hence you get this...

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk//

quite right it isnt. lots of dodgy data for "recovered" on worldmeters because there's little to no reliable tracking anywhere, country's ranging from not counting to guessimates.

 

[nicko31]

Robert Jenrick ‘Circuit break would not be a short term measure’

You mean, governments are lying and using the term ‘circuit break’ to imply a short lockdown? Well I never, who saw that one coming....

I don’t understand some posts in this thread, much as I like to government bash, the government here ARE acting but they are acting with local lockdowns, simply look at the charts for infections in the North at the moment, the south doesn’t need to be locked down, why people are so obsessed with shutting the entire country I don’t know, it’s quite clearly not the answer.

The south isn't in trouble yet but number are rising fast, puts the brakes on before we have a real national crisis. Slamming the breaks on for 2-3 weeks want stop the oil tanker but it will slow it down and buy time. T&T still needs a lot of work, its a mess

Or delay and have to do a longer more damaging lockdown later, seems we are persuing the latter and gambling on a vaccine. It might work but I don't it will and we'll soon have the highest death rate in Europe again...

 

[Yoda]

quite right it isnt. lots of dodgy data for "recovered" on worldmeters because there's little to no reliable tracking anywhere, country's ranging from not counting to guessimates.

Unfortunately I think we're in the first category. I'm sure at one of the daily briefings towards the end of May, someone asked about producing the recovered figures and they said they would look into producing them next week. 5 months later......

 

[darkwolf666]

The south isn't in trouble yet but number are rising fast, puts the brakes on before we have a real national crisis. Slamming the breaks on for 2-3 weeks want stop the oil tanker but it will slow it down and buy time. T&T still needs a lot of work, its a mess

Or delay and have to do a longer more damaging lockdown later, seems we are persuing the latter and gambling on a vaccine. It might work but I don't it will and we'll soon have the highest death rate in Europe again...

This... By the time the whole country is in a mess it's too late...

Bit like only fitting window locks AFTER you have been burgled when there is a spate of burglaries in the next town!

 

[Billy the Fish]

To the contrary, I'm looking slightly beyond that period just before lockdown, and the deaths that would inevitably follow in early-to-mid April.

In Mid-may, we were recording around 500 deaths per day; lower than the peak, but still high. I know there's no set amount of time to die from Covid, but given we locked down on 23rd March it seems reasonable to believe that many of those dying then would have been infected under lockdown conditions, by which time all of those things (barring perhaps widespread use of masks) were happening.

In parts of the country hospitalisations appear to be surpassing first wave peak-levels - that certainly appears to be true up here in Leeds (though granted, down South the picture is currently quite different). Precautions are indeed being taken by the public, but in contrast to March and April most people are still free to go the pub, out for a meal, shopping, to the cinema etc. whilst schools, a major transmission risk, remain open with no meaningful social distancing protocols in place.

I don't claim to have the solution here by the way, it's just an observation that the country is very much open for business compared to earlier in the year and that cases and deaths are regrettably on the climb - logically you can only see a significantly worse outcome than we've already seen and whilst I think many of us have become somewhat desensitised by Covid death stats by now it still doesn't make for pleasant viewing.

The reality is, I think we're probably too far down the rabbit hole now to avoid a catastrophic level of death without economic ruin. How, as a government, you're meant to balance those two things, I don't know. But I look at some countries that took a hard line to local spikes (such as Victoria, Australia) and are in a better place for it despite those decisions being grossly unpopular at the time and wonder whether things getting this bad again were really, truly inevitable. We had things under relative control in the summer, and now they aren't, sadly.

Yeah i see what you're saying, maybe it me who's missing the point!

My reasoning is that every outcome is the result of a cumulative effect. Infections are the result of what happened two weeks ago, deaths a month ago (give or take arbitrary figures). If you take a snapshot of any point between January and June you really have to go right back to the beginning to understand the numbers. Deaths in March were the result of community infections in February before the restrictions were in place.

In the first wave infection numbers were only from hospitals so you can guess that infection in the community at it's peak was way above what we have now. This time we're working from a lower baseline number, I know the official stats won't show this but that's because there was initially no testing in the community.

My prediction is there will be more infections but fewer deaths. The vulnerable are now much better protected, more people are taking precautions and the spread at the moment is among the young who aren't as badly affected.

 

[LamieRobertson]

quite right it isnt. lots of dodgy data for "recovered" on worldmeters because there's little to no reliable tracking anywhere, country's ranging from not counting to guessimates.

And yet BJ did promise publishing this info in a news conference some...erm 4/5months ago

Edit...just seen Yodas post

 

[nicko31]

This... By the time the whole country is in a mess it's too late...

Bit like only fitting window locks AFTER you have been burgled when there is a spate of burglaries in the next town!

It might already be too late, Imperial study saying 100k cases a day at present. I believe them and the ONS not the governments figures

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-54723962

So that's 1% of UK population every week, pretty mind blowing. Stay safe everyone, we've been warned

 

[beorhthelm]

And yet BJ did promise publishing this info in a news conference some...erm 4/5months ago

Edit...just seen Yodas post

but if NHS dont track this, because its dubious clinical validity, its unlikely to happen.

 

[BLOCK F]

I only ever knew one loon who believed the lot, this goes back to the late 80’s onwards. Pre internet he was an influencer of that bullshit, pushing it the vulnerable elderly.

Having a mischievous, satirical sense of humour, I simply took the piss out of his baloney.

Now, from nowhere and frighteningly, this is now a huge movement. Within my family, relatives, lifelong friends, young and old, I know a load of kids and adults who are heavily into this. Icke is loved.

Contrary to the common theory and James O’Brien has got this wrong, they’re not all right wing Brexiteers. Many are apolitical or lifelong Labour voters.

I have some strange conversations about Icke, where I try to talk about the alien murderous lizards masquerading as Johnson, Starmer, Gates and Clooney .... things get tense, the conspiracy theorist family members are hyper sensitive. Similarly on the entwined antisemitism ... I’m emphatically told that Icke is only against the murder of arabs.

The whole thing stinks. A parallel universe of lies, I don’t think most Brits have cottoned on yet what’s happening to many millions of their fellow countrymen. This is serious.

It is weird, isnt it.
An ex boyfriend of my wife is a serious conspiracy loon who even writes and records songs about such topics as 9/11 being a stunt set up by the US Government. He frequently tweets complete bollocks about 5G, Covid etc. and appears to be a complete fruitloop.
I said to her, you must have sent him bonkers, but she said he wasn't at all like that when we were together and indeed he used to say how mad David Icke was!
God knows what has happened to him..........I hope she doesn't have that affect on me.

 

[LamieRobertson]

but if NHS dont track this, because its dubious clinical validity, its unlikely to happen.

Where there is a will there’s a way?

 

[BLOCK F]

It is weird, isnt it.
An ex boyfriend of my wife is a serious conspiracy loon who even writes and records songs about such topics as 9/11 being a stunt set up by the US Government. He frequently tweets complete bollocks about 5G, Covid etc. and appears to be a complete fruitloop.
I said to her, you must have sent him bonkers, but she said he wasn't at all like that when we were together and indeed he used to say how mad David Icke was!
God knows what has happened to him..........I hope she doesn't have that affect on me.

I haven't gone bonkers yet, but, oh dear, I wrote affect instead of effect.
That is bad enough! First sign, maybe?

 

[A1X]

It's radicalisation. It tends to only be talked about in terms of religion but this is happening all around us and in all strands. Often these people get sucked in by something relatively small fry and then get dragged down by what they find.

Imagine someone (let's call them "Person A") sees something on a Facebook feed shared by a friend along the lines of "Share this picture if you like a nice cup of tea!", so they share it as it seems harmless enough. But at this point the algorithms have picked up that they shared that picture and as such shows them more material from the group who posted that picture (let's call it "Memories of the UK"). So after a while Person A will see more and more material from "Memories of the UK", however this is now starting to take a darker turn.

"Share if you think we should be proud of our Queen!"
"Share if you think they shouldn't ban baa baa black sheep for racism!"
"Share if you never got vaccinated against things and were told to just get on with it!"

Slowly and slowly the person disappears down the rabbit hole as they share these things, and soon they reach the inner circle which is crawling with all sorts of people who in the real world wouldn't get airtime but thrive online (racists, anti-vaxxers, conspiracy theorists etc.). By this time, Person A is in and sees things being said on a group they like, and they start to read it and become indoctrinated in it. Soon they've been sent all sorts of links to dodgy Youtube videos which "prove" Covid-19 doesn't exist, or Jeremy Corbyn eats live children, or Muslims brainwash kids through vaccines, and at that point they're already pre-disposed to agree with the people who post it (after all, they all share the same interest) and at that point it is effectively a religious fervour. By then it's usually too late.

 

[Weststander]

Rightly or wrongly, there's surely going to be another national lockdown in the next couple of weeks.

Hope we're all stocked up on toilet roll, baked beans and dry pasta?

Get your haircuts done.

Going to be tougher mentally this time. All those unusually sunny days in March, April and May ... round our way countless numbers out jogging or cycling whilst ‘WFH’ or furloughed, or out with their kids who had no school.

 

[Weststander]

Tougher mentally for more than just those reasons.

I'm a key worker who had to power through lockdown, with more work than ever as had to cover for colleagues.

This year is a never ending hell for me. The first lock down was really tough when I had to work 16 hour shifts and return home to see everyone enjoying their free holidays in the sunshine in their gardens. At least now there won't be that. Instead everyone else will be equally as miserable as they're stuck at home in the shit weather with no new stuff to watch on Netflix

Out of interest, with CV19 rates never overwhelming in Sussex (i.e. so few people had it in March, April ... buy many reckoned they had), why were your colleagues not in at that time?

It was a 90% or 100% paid de facto holiday at home for many. I have family and neighbours who loved the whole thing, no commuting, lay ins, see lots of the family, whilst wages neatly still hit the bank account.

 

[darkwolf666]

Tougher mentally for more than just those reasons.

I'm a key worker who had to power through lockdown, with more work than ever as had to cover for colleagues.

This year is a never ending hell for me. The first lock down was really tough when I had to work 16 hour shifts and return home to see everyone enjoying their free holidays in the sunshine in their gardens. At least now there won't be that. Instead everyone else will be equally as miserable as they're stuck at home in the shit weather with no new stuff to watch on Netflix

Got to admit we are now finding it really hard. Like you say, the good weather was a massive bonus and allowed us to spend many days outside, in our garden, in the sunshine.

Things are very different now though. We try and get out for a walk most days and have a nice circuit of about 3km, which takes us round 2 local cemeteries, where we don’t come into contact with anyone. It’s an hour out of the day and helps pass some time away!

For only the second time since mid-March we have ventured out, to a local garden centre, where again we managed to avoid people. My wife, who normally loves shopping hated every minute of it and just wanted us to be back indoors, safe in our sanctuary.

I know much has been made of the mental health of the nation, and I do wonder how we are going to get through this next 6 months as a little family. At the moment we can’t see any end to this living hell.

 

[Weststander]

Some shielding (up to 5 months I think) through being deemed a vulnerable group by the government, others having "symptoms" and having to self isolate for 2 weeks, including family members having "symptoms" which was the government advice at the time.

In my own and also wife’s family, someone took two weeks off early on from their key worker job because they fancied time off ... calling in that they had a high temperature. Someone else a fit and healthy 40ish, took months off from a well known retailer ... they get stressed and didn’t like fellow staff interacting and not wearing masks. They admitted they loved the happy byproduct of many months off on pay ... lay ins etc.

 

[The Clamp]

I'm pretty certain the UK will be in full lockdown by mid November. Which is annoying. My work cancels leave in lockdowns which mean no overtime shifts, which we all rely on. So effectively my pay gets cut down to about 80% but I still have to go in for 14 hour shifts while I watch self employed people do cash in hand work and claim the government grants or people basically having a paid holiday. It's all rather frustrating. That probably sounds selfish. So be it.

I'm not convinced we need lock downs. would be much better to isolate vulnerable people and let the economy and life go on as normal for the majority. Using a steam roller to crack a nut. IMO. I know that is an unpopular view with many.