Main Coronavirus / Covid-19 Discussion Thread

[Guinness Boy]

https://twitter.com/ianmulheirn/status/1312878314818801666?s=21

But that does open up the question of whether you want to stop the virus altogether or just keep death and hospitalisation rates to a minimum.

If you can vaccinate the front line workers and vulnerable I'd be much more in the "Albion Dan" camp of letting everyone else crack on. Ultimately, in life, you cannot eliminate risk from everything. My problem at the moment with his posts is that they effectively advocate locking up the vulnerable (no human rights for you mr elderly person!) or killing them.

The tweet is also assuming a 50% effective vaccine. No one yet knows what that % will be.

 

[Kinky Gerbil]

No coronavirus lockdown for top Tory constituencies
Leaked emails reveal that wealthier seats and new blue strongholds are being spared the harshest restrictions

Wealthy areas, including the chancellor Rishi Sunak’s parliamentary seat, are avoiding lockdown despite having higher Covid-19 rates than poorer areas that are subject to restrictions, according to leaked emails between health officials.
The government is under growing pressure to explain why it has placed large parts of the north and Midlands under local lockdowns while overlooking areas with similar infection rates. Asked why the northwest is “treated differently” from areas such as his own seat of Uxbridge and South Ruislip in west London, Boris Johnson said on Friday: “I appreciate ... people want to see an iron consistency applied across the whole country.”
Matt Hanrooster, the health secretary, decides which areas to place in lockdown during weekly “gold” meetings with advisers. Yesterday, 50 councils were subject to measures such as bans on household mixing. However, there is no official Covid-19 infection rate that triggers a local lockdown.

On Thursday, Professor Dominic Harrison, the director of public health for Blackburn with Darwen, the largest borough in the wider Lancashire area, wrote to Department of Health and Social Care (DHSC) officials, saying the measures were “avoidably increasing economic inequality”. He said: “There is now a different level of central control applied across local authorities, with some of the more economically challenged boroughs being placed into more restrictive control measures at an earlier point in their ... case rate trajectory.
“This has the effect of exacerbating the economic inequality impacts of the virus in those areas. We urgently need consistency in the national strategy if the control system itself is not to add to inequality, giving an economic ‘double whammy’ to more challenged areas.”

His comments come amid a row between ministers and mayors over lockdown policy. Andy Preston, the Middlesbrough mayor, last week said he did “not accept” the latest measures and said local leaders could effectively “preserve jobs and wellbeing”. He has since U-turned.
Blackburn with Darwen is one of Britain’s poorest boroughs. Its Covid rate peaked at 212 weekly cases per 100,000 people. When officials first imposed lockdowns in the area in August, they intervened in wards where the weekly rate exceeded 60 new cases per 100,000. A similar benchmark has been used elsewhere.
However, Harrison produced figures last week to suggest that wealthier areas with similar or higher rates were avoiding lockdown. Richmondshire in North Yorkshire, which includes Sunak’s constituency and is one of the least deprived areas in Britain, has 73 new cases for every 100,000 people. Newark and Sherwood, represented by Robert Jenrick, the housing secretary, and Mark Spencer, the chief whip, stands at 84. Both areas have avoided lockdown.
In contrast, Wolverhampton, another poorer area, has 56 cases per 100,000 yet remains in lockdown. Chorley, at 72, Lancaster, at 66, and Oadby and Wigston, at 63, are also subject to lockdowns.
Several “red wall” seats that voted Tory at the last election have avoided lockdown, including Barrow-in-Furness (112) , Darlington (110) and Wakefield (73). Of all areas where infections exceed 70 but lockdown has been avoided, the majority are represented by Tory MPs.
Steve Reed, shadow housing secretary, said: “People living in the north and Midlands will be asking why they’re having to face restrictions when other parts of the country that have seen infections rise are not.” The DHSC said the incidence rate was only one criterion considered in deciding on lockdowns.

NO LOCKDOWN
West Lancashire 137 cases per 100,000
Barrow-in-Furness 112
Darlington 110
Craven 109
Newark and Sherwood 84

IN LOCKDOWN
Chorley 73 cases per 100,000
Wyre 71
Lancaster 66
Oadby and Wigston 63
Wolverhampton 56

 

[Hotchilidog]

Literally no shame.

 

[A1X]

Matt Hanrooster, the health secretary

 

[The Wizard]

But that does open up the question of whether you want to stop the virus altogether or just keep death and hospitalisation rates to a minimum.

If you can vaccinate the front line workers and vulnerable I'd be much more in the "Albion Dan" camp of letting everyone else crack on. Ultimately, in life, you cannot eliminate risk from everything. My problem at the moment with his posts is that they effectively advocate locking up the vulnerable (no human rights for you mr elderly person!) or killing them.

The tweet is also assuming a 50% effective vaccine. No one yet knows what that % will be.

Indeed, I have highlighted the point about the vulnerable or elderly, it’s a very difficult issue actually people always brandish the ‘shield the elderly and vulnerable and let the rest of us get on with it’ idea, initially even I thought this idea was best but having spoken to a few people it’s opened my eyes to the fact, a lot of these people don’t want to shield again, they sacrificed their freedom for 3 months the first lockdown and to demand people do it again for potentially the next 6 months is frankly inhumane.

It’s leaves me even asking myself what the answer is, cases do seem to be stabilising at the moment but for me the option are:

1) Elderly/vulnerable shield for a period of time until immunity rises enough for a ‘Sweden’ type scenario
2) Eledrly/vulnerable shield for the entirety of winter, until there is a vaccine? What happens if there isn’t one?
3) Similar to 1) but Allow people the choice as to whether they shield again and life resumes, with precautions.
4) Sack it all off

I’d edge with option 3, but the problem comes with the fact, if we did go a more ‘Sweden’ type route now, it’s basically the government admitting they got it wrong, so they won’t do it and I simply don’t trust them to protect the care homes and most vulnerable groups in order for this tactic to work, without causing large excess deaths, even Sweden admitted their idea worked but they didn’t protect their care system enough.

 

[beorhthelm]

I’d edge with option 3,

the trouble with option 3 is who takes the decision and who takes responsibility. what happens when the person falls ill, admitted to hospital and dies two weeks later? is it their fault or government for allowing it? now scale up to a few million. everyone will hold government responsible for allowing it to happen, not with the individuals who took their decision. with this in mind, government err's to more cautious policy.

 

[The Wizard]

the trouble with option 3 is who takes the decision and who takes responsibility. what happens when the person falls ill, admitted to hospital and dies two weeks later? is it their fault or government for allowing it? now scale up to a few million. everyone will hold government responsible for allowing it to happen, not with the individuals who took their decision. with this in mind, government err's to more cautious policy.

We can’t make people lock themselves away on the hope of a vaccine. If I was in the position of the vulnerable or the elderly and I’d already locked myself away for circa 3 months doing it again for another 6 months would be a life not worth living.

Look at how many stories there are of previously active, social elderly people who locked themselves away for 3 months and became reclusive, afraid and more important had no quality of life for that period. What is more important for someone at that age? Quality of life and quality time with loved ones? I’m not saying all elderly people are like this, I’m sure many would prefer to shield than face the risk but there is undoubtably a growing % that don’t want to live like prisoners again.

 

[e77]

Why would a working vaccine not be offered to the entire population, at least eventually?

 

[WilburySeagull]

Why would a working vaccine not be offered to the entire population, at least eventually?

It will be but there will be a need to prioritise initially.

 

[e77]

It will be but there will be a need to prioritise initially.

Absolutely. If we can vaccinate front line workers and the vulnerable we can at least open things up a bit though.

That is a genuine quote used above but I would want it verified.

 

[LamieRobertson]

Might find this interesting..the guy is normally accurate with stats

Positive tests per 100k, yesterday in brackets:

South East - 7.18 (7.19)
London - 10.22 (11.04)
North West - 59.77 (42.61)
East - 7.88 (5.91)
West Midlands - 17.86 (15.28)
South West - 7.14 (8.61)
Yorkshire - 44.31 (39.89)
East Midlands - 18.35 (14.71)
North East - 46.18 (41.69)

https://twitter.com/anshul__k/status/1313499056065449985?s=21

 

[Kinky Gerbil]

Slightly miss leading headline, but still

https://www.google.co.uk/amp/s/www....cock-having-NO-idea-contacts-need-traced.html

 

[atomised]

Might find this interesting..the guy is normally accurate with stats

Positive tests per 100k, yesterday in brackets:

South East - 7.18 (7.19)
London - 10.22 (11.04)
North West - 59.77 (42.61)
East - 7.88 (5.91)
West Midlands - 17.86 (15.28)
South West - 7.14 (8.61)
Yorkshire - 44.31 (39.89)
East Midlands - 18.35 (14.71)
North East - 46.18 (41.69)

https://twitter.com/anshul__k/status/1313499056065449985?s=21

Think it's pretty scary that places in local lockdown are getting hammered still

 

[Jimmy Grimble]

Brighton and Hove on ‘Amber’ level now, the last stage before potential government intervention.

 

[Poojah]

Think it's pretty scary that places in local lockdown are getting hammered still

You see, I think there’s a bit of a misconception about what a local lockdown actually means. The word ‘lockdown’ conjures images of what we all went through in March, April and May but I live in Leeds and in reality it’s nothing like it.

What can’t we do? Visit our friends or families in their homes and gardens. Mix in groups bigger than six. That’s about it. There is ‘guidance’ about not mixing with other households in pubs, restaurants etc but that’s only a guide and not a hard and fast rule - as such it’s generally ignored.

We can go to the pub. Go out for a meal. Go to the shops. In fact, my wife dragged me to the Meadowhall shopping centre off the M1 near Sheffield the other day and it was absolutely mobbed. Face coverings yes, social distancing no chance. We left pretty swiftly for that reason.

On Monday I received a notification from the NHS app that we had both been in proximity to someone who has since tested positive for Covid, though apparently not close enough to require us to self-isolate. I am adamant it will have been there - if you work out there will have been the best part of 100,000 people in that shopping centre in a location where there are 300 cases per 100,000 people it doesn’t take a statistical genius to establish there will be a good number of people walking around carrying the virus.

The genie is out of the bottle in some parts of the country now. I regret to say we’re going to need something more akin to the bonafide lockdown we know and hate if we’re going to get it back in.

 

[Albion Dan]

So the government have pretty much declared the music industry abandoned. The long term ramifications of this and future culture, art and entertainment are horrible.

What sort of future are we allowing to unfold for our children?

I honestly believe when this period is reviewed in history people will wonder quite how we got it so wrong.

 

[LamieRobertson]

Think it's pretty scary that places in local lockdown are getting hammered still

Also ties in with the mortality figures ...strip out two regions and it makes a heck of a difference ...but also begs the question what’s going on there...as always the story is really behind the figures ..which is not told.



New reported deaths, yesterday in brackets:

East Midlands - 4 (1)
East - 0 (0)
London - 2 (2)
North East - 22 (3)
North West - 25 (7)
South East - 1 (0)
South West - 2 (0)
West Midlands - 3 (4)
Yorks And The Humber - 4 (3)
Northern Ireland - 1 (0)
Scotland - 2 (0)
Wales - 10 (



https://twitter.com/anshul__k/status/1313499714004934658?s=21

 

[atomised]

Also ties in with the mortality figures ...strip out two regions and it makes a heck of a difference ...but also begs the question what’s going on there...as always the story is really behind the figures ..which is not told.



New reported deaths, yesterday in brackets:

East Midlands - 4 (1)
East - 0 (0)
London - 2 (2)
North East - 22 (3)
North West - 25 (7)
South East - 1 (0)
South West - 2 (0)
West Midlands - 3 (4)
Yorks And The Humber - 4 (3)
Northern Ireland - 1 (0)
Scotland - 2 (0)
Wales - 10 (



https://twitter.com/anshul__k/status/1313499714004934658?s=21

Indeed. I know each death is terrible but there are loads of stats like this that aren't reported but aren't that hidden.
I follow a guy on twitter. I think the user name is rp131 who publishes loads of charts daily. One I go to.every day relates to cases broken down into local authorities and constantly the top 100 local authorities cover 50% roughly of the population yet have 80% of the cases.
I was looking at it today with the Argus report about local lockdown for Brighton and Hove, which sits around 170th so well outside the top 100. A couple of days over the last week or so it's been in that top 100 but dropped out again fairly quickly

 

[LamieRobertson]

Indeed. I know each death is terrible but there are loads of stats like this that aren't reported but aren't that hidden.
I follow a guy on twitter. I think the user name is rp131 who publishes loads of charts daily. One I go to.every day relates to cases broken down into local authorities and constantly the top 100 local authorities cover 50% roughly of the population yet have 80% of the cases.
I was looking at it today with the Argus report about local lockdown for Brighton and Hove, which sits around 170th so well outside the top 100. A couple of days over the last week or so it's been in that top 100 but dropped out again fairly quickly

Aye ...there are a few i follow on twitter that are generally reliable for stats ...just try and steer between the comments that are made...re gov website only one i go to directly is the one that covers cases for Adur (my area)

 

[Kinky Gerbil]

Interesting to see how this goes.