Main Coronavirus / Covid-19 Discussion Thread

[Harry Wilson's tackle]

And your colleagues in China are all free to tell each other, and you, everything, and to challenge the governments figures on deaths? What exactly are they doing to check the total number of deaths?

China's openness about the virus:
December 30: Dr. Li Wenliang sent a message to a group of other doctors warning them about a possible outbreak of an illness that resembled severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS), urging them to take protective measures against infection.

January 1: The Wuhan Public Security Bureau issued summons to Dr. Li Wenliang, accusing him of “spreading rumors.” Two days later, at a police station, Dr. Li signed a statement acknowledging his “misdemeanor” and promising not to commit further “unlawful acts.”

If China are being open and honest, why did Dr Li have to pretend he was spreading rumours, when he clearly wasn't?

The virus passed from human to human in the first week of December, but at the end of December, China were still saying that hadn't happened. They were still maintaining this lie well into January.

I'm not suggesting China hasn't lied. What I'm saying is their data don't actually look that weird, and their numbers are more akin to what people out there are telling me, and what one might expect after a pretty draconian and swift (compared with us) lockdown. One is a mate's daughter. I won't give the details but she is in a position to know what's what and if we are being fed a crock (and their are bodies piling up) I would know about it by now.

Our own dear leader was playing this all down as late as early March, you realise? I accept that he hasn't had anyone shot, yet, but it isn't just China that had engaged with information 'management' and, yes, denial.

For me, the log data shown earlier tell a story. Almost every nation's lines overlay one another. I have looked at enough graphs to recognise when there is and isn't a pattern. Where there are sufficient numbers, the numbers align. It looks like Australia have the weirdest numbers, but Australia is a weird nation in terms of population location, and their numbers are too small yet for a pattern to be discernible. South Korea is the most weird of all for a sizable nation with early exposure and decent numbers.

Anyway if you were to ask me if it's to early to say what the global and local projections are, I'd say it's too early to say. If the Italy and Spain deaths trends continue to bounce around in the next 3 days I'd be able to state with some certainty that it is too early to say.

 

[Harry Wilson's tackle]

Here's an explanation about why FT (and others) use log scales https://twitter.com/jburnmurdoch/status/1247245188625575937

But if you want to see a linear representation, you can choose this here (you can make whatever you want on this site - but it is a day behind) https://flattenthecurve.co.nz/

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As noted above - look at South Korea. Either they are much bigger liars than China or they have innate immunity.

 

[pb21]

As noted above - look at South Korea. Either they are much bigger liars than China or they have innate immunity.

They went full on 'test, test, test' right from the go.

 

[Harry Wilson's tackle]

They went full on 'test, test, test' right from the go.

That's what I thought. They may well see an Autumn surge, then, if we don't have a vaccine by then.

But...basically, all the numbers make sense. They are not 'exact' but they aren't all made up either. Not even China's

 

[Green Cross Code Man]

That's what I thought. They may well see an Autumn surge, then, if we don't have a vaccine by then.

But...basically, all the numbers make sense. They are not 'exact' but they aren't all made up either. Not even China's

All along the scientists have been telling us that a vaccine will take at least 18 months and that is super quick. I have had a sneaking suspicion that someone may pull a rabbit from the bag. Is that your opinion?

 

[Harry Wilson's tackle]

All along the scientists have been telling us that a vaccine will take at least 18 months and that is super quick. I have had a sneaking suspicion that someone may pull a rabbit from the bag. Is that your opinion?

Yes.

18 months is silly. We make a new flu vac every year for the latest mutation. COVID-19 (and 20, soon) isn't any more difficult to work with. I'd be astonished if we aren't all sitting with a sleeve rolled up, ready for a Droopy* by late June. September at the latest. Then football can resume (and....exhale).

*small prick

 

[Triggaaar]

I'm not suggesting China hasn't lied. What I'm saying is their data don't actually look that weird, and their numbers are more akin to what people out there are telling me, and what one might expect after a pretty draconian and swift (compared with us) lockdown.

Where do your colleagues work (city, not job etc)?

The lockdown was draconian, but where and when was the lockdown, and how many cases were there at that point (and we'll have to allow for the fact there were a lot more cases at that point than China either knew or said)? And how long until the lockdown elsewhere?

One is a mate's daughter. I won't give the details but she is in a position to know what's what and if we are being fed a crock (and their are bodies piling up) I would know about it by now.

Well there were certainly urns piling up, that's a fact.

Our own dear leader was playing this all down as late as early March, you realise? I accept that he hasn't had anyone shot, yet, but it isn't just China that had engaged with information 'management' and, yes, denial.

Playing it down and thinking it won't be a big problem was a bit dumb in my opinion, but it is a completely different thing to lying and covering up what's happened. There's no suggestion that the numbers the UK are releasing are made up.

For me, the log data shown earlier tell a story. Almost every nation's lines overlay one another. I have looked at enough graphs to recognise when there is and isn't a pattern. Where there are sufficient numbers, the numbers align. It looks like Australia have the weirdest numbers, but Australia is a weird nation in terms of population location, and their numbers are too small yet for a pattern to be discernible. South Korea is the most weird of all for a sizable nation with early exposure and decent numbers.

The data to me screams that China have lied about the numbers. They were the first place to get the virus, so they didn't have tests ready to do wide scale testing at first. They were also in denial about it, and tried to cover it up (that's a fact), so it would have spread all around China. Not only that, but the accounts from China are that they didn't bother testing a lot of people - even those in hospital. They also had no idea what treatment was most likely to help patients. No doubt health experts are still learning on that one, but they'll know more now than they did when this hit China. Also the video footage from China at the time was of people extremely ill, and unable to get hospital treatment. Footage that we still haven't seen in the UK, despite the fact that we've apparently already had over double the deaths of China.

The early reports of cases were of a few outside China, and plenty spread around China, before China went into lockdown. I'd be interested to see the dates of their reported cases and dates of their lockdowns again, because I'm confident the lockdown would have been too late to prevent many thousands of deaths.

 

[Machiavelli]

As [MENTION=28490]Machiavelli[/MENTION] noted this is a log scale. This is the best way to show these types of data.

I am still trying to get my head round the China data. I don't buy [MENTION=4019]Triggaaar[/MENTION]'s increasing supposition that there is a massive cover up their over deaths. I have enough contacts in China who would tell me if was a massive cover up to be confident there isn't. Edit, looking again at the data on a log scale, China looks unremarkable. The really odd graphs are South Korea's. I'd almost be tempted to suggest the Koreans have an innate resistance to COVID. Or their numbers are seriously false.

Something else while I'm ranting. Bahaviour down here in Faversham has been great. Apart from one daft bint today who stood too close to me in Macknade then apologised when I had a word, everyone has clearly been making an effort. Yet on R5 earlier they interviewed a supermarket worker from up north somehwhere who said that almost everyone is flagrantly breaching the guidance, innoring space restrictions, making repeat visits to the stores with trails of kids in tow, just to buy sweets and icecreams, aggressive stroppy refusal to follow instructions, and hostile denial that this is a proper epidemic. I sat listening in increasing incredulity. Sometimes one can forget what people are like in the gammony rump of our country.

I agree with you about China, although Trump doesn't.
RE South Korea: is it not because they're the best prepared country and, as a result of this, have acted with astounding rapidity to this. Their economy will be one of the least affected as a result, because they're testing, tracing, isolating. And this is pretty much what WHO have been recommending for gawd knows how long, whereas Brexit Britain thought they knew better.

 

[Harry Wilson's tackle]

Where do your colleagues work (city, not job etc)?

The lockdown was draconian, but where and when was the lockdown, and how many cases were there at that point (and we'll have to allow for the fact there were a lot more lockdowns at that point than China either knew or said)? And how long until the lockdown elsewhere?

Well there were certainly urns piling up, that's a fact.

Playing it down and thinking it won't be a big problem was a bit dumb in my opinion, but it is a completely different thing to lying and covering up what's happened. There's no suggestion that the numbers the UK are releasing are made up.

The data to me screams that China have lied about the numbers. They were the first place to get the virus, so they didn't have tests ready to do wide scale testing at first. They were also in denial about it, and tried to cover it up (that's a fact), so it would have spread all around China. Not only that, but the accounts from China are that they didn't bother testing a lot of people - even those in hospital. They also had no idea what treatment was most likely to help patients. No doubt health experts are still learning on that one, but they'll know more now than they did when this hit China. Also the video footage from China at the time was of people extremely ill, and unable to get hospital treatment. Footage that we still haven't seen in the UK, despite the fact that we've apparently already had over double the deaths of China.

The early reports of cases were of a few outside China, and plenty spread around China, before China went into lockdown. I'd be interested to see the dates of their reported cases and dates of their lockdowns again, because I'm confident the lockdown would have been too late to prevent many thousands of deaths.

Yes. Maybe I am in denial. I acknowledge all your points. It is too soon yet to know what the correct inferences are (I don't need to say that to you, but there may be others reading ).

There is **** all I can do about anything now, though. I checked out the Vallance misgivings and found I was wrong. The burning rage of indignation I had about 'the world' as a younger man has yet to re-ignite at the thought that I am being systematically lied to. Boris is a nobber but I don't think he wants me dead. Yet. Apart from the extraordinary achievements of Korea, Sud, we all seem to be in the same boat. In the next few days we will see whether the boat is a hydrofoil with added Campari, or the SS Torrey Canyon.

All the best to you - I enjoy our peripatetic correspondance.

 

[Machiavelli]

As noted above - look at South Korea. Either they are much bigger liars than China or they have innate immunity.

There is no 'innate immunity' and you know that full well. SK were at or near the epicentre of other recent epidemics, and they've prepared as a consequence. Those preparations meant that they acted immediately, and produced or put in place: tests, relevant equipment, digital monitoring, etc
It's other countries that have acted off the principle that they have 'innate immunity' by ignoring high level pandemic preparedness guidance, including good old Britain who thought there was more important things to occupy our attentions.

 

[Weststander]

I agree with you about China, although Trump doesn't.
RE South Korea: is it not because they're the best prepared country and, as a result of this, have acted with astounding rapidity to this. Their economy will be one of the least affected as a result, because they're testing, tracing, isolating. And this is pretty much what WHO have been recommending for gawd knows how long, whereas Brexit Britain thought they knew better.

Why do you drag Brexit into this? We haven’t even left yet.

So, in the idylls of Italy, Spain and France, what gave rise to the huge number of cases and deaths? Even the EU’s top expert has now thrown in the towel at the incompetence and everyone for themselves chaos.

 

[Harry Wilson's tackle]

I agree with you about China, although Trump doesn't.
RE South Korea: is it not because they're the best prepared country and, as a result of this, have acted with astounding rapidity to this. Their economy will be one of the least affected as a result, because they're testing, tracing, isolating. And this is pretty much what WHO have been recommending for gawd knows how long, whereas Brexit Britain thought they knew better.

My next car will be a Hyundai. I shit you not.

 

[beorhthelm]

All along the scientists have been telling us that a vaccine will take at least 18 months and that is super quick. I have had a sneaking suspicion that someone may pull a rabbit from the bag. Is that your opinion?

there are alot of potential vaccines in development, some already at clinicial trial (or so claimed, its difficult to wade through the news). they will have to go through regulatory approval process, we can expect this to be accelerated. then there's production, they have to make enough for mass immunisation programme. i've heard early autumn as possiblity if trails go well, to begin vaccinations.

 

[Swansman]

Well-organised countries that dealt with SARS are also doing well now, its probable both the government and the people learnt quite a few lessons from that time around.

Sounds weird that Koreans could have some kind of "innate immunity" but what do I know: maybe SARS and other (perhaps undetected) coronaviruses throughout history made the population in East Asia more resilient against the virus. Wild speculation.

 

[Harry Wilson's tackle]

There is no 'innate immunity' and you know that full well. SK were at or near the epicentre of other recent epidemics, and they've prepared as a consequence. Those preparations meant that they acted immediately, and produced or put in place: tests, relevant equipment, digital monitoring, etc
It's other countries that have acted off the principle that they have 'innate immunity' by ignoring high level pandemic preparedness guidance, including good old Britain who thought there was more important things to occupy our attentions.

Indeed. I was being facetious. As well you know. And yet.... That said, it isn't beyond the bounds of possibility. It would make up for the legendary shortage of aldehyde dehydrogenase among the Chinese (and related) populations.

I've just nailed it, haven't I? Worth an epidemiological peek if nothing else....

 

[Machiavelli]

Why do you drag Brexit into this? We haven’t even left yet.

So, in the idylls of Italy, Spain and France, what gave rise to the huge number of cases and deaths? Even the EU’s top expert has now thrown in the towel at the incompetence and everyone for themselves chaos.

View attachment 121934

I thought I'd bring Brexit into it, because we now have a Brexiteer government. As to "we haven't even left yet", what do you think happened on Jan 31st of this year?
And I've no idea what the policies adopted by Italy, Spain and France has got to do with our government ignoring WHO guidance for too long, but perhaps you could let me know.

 

[Hugo Rune]

Main Coronavirus / Covid-19 Dicsussion Thread

That's what I thought. They may well see an Autumn surge, then, if we don't have a vaccine by then.

But...basically, all the numbers make sense. They are not 'exact' but they aren't all made up either. Not even China's

It’s a lot more than test, test, test.

They learned their lessons from SARS alongside the likes of Taiwan, Singapore, Hong Kong and evening China. They were years and years ahead of us in terms of understanding, planning & preparation. This is why you shouldn’t have scientists (alone) in charge of our strategy, whilst we waited for outcomes on studies/consensus etc etc, we really needed someone with a business head (or at least enough experience to question the scientists properly). Like a someone who runs a Formula One team and can throw months of research in to the bin overnight with a picture of the new Mercedes front wing and then make their engineers work night and day to replicate it.

I suspect Boris had decided we were the best at pandemics in the world when in fact, our scientists, studies & preparations were clearly pre-SARS. When you are against the clock, academics are not the ideal folk to take the lead from. Was the question asked ‘who is the best at this in the word?’ and was the PM given the right answer? Why didn’t we copy their strategies from the start?

I digress.

In terms of the cases in South Korea, you needn’t multiply their figures by a factor of 10, 20 or even 50 to get the real infection numbers. Their numbers are pretty accurate because of testing but they were advising their population to only touch the masks they wore (South Korea have stockpiled 2 per day per person along with hundreds of thousands of tests) with sanitised hands when we were banging on about washing your hands for 20 seconds.

Here is some great insights from initial studies on Covid-19. The ‘airborne/6ft’ stuff is truly fascinating.

https://m.facebook.com/story.php?st...=407504242094&extid=sdPBa0FqcIGRS8eQ&d=w&vh=e

Even now, the West has not properly cottoned on to the fact that masks work (and we won’t because like tests, ventilators and PPE, we don’t have many).

 

[Machiavelli]

My next car will be a Hyundai. I shit you not.

My last one was, and my last phone was a Samsung (which I think is a South Korean brand), but my current one is Huawei
But that's all mundane, and the same cannot be said of Parasite, which really is one of the best films ever made. If only we had a few spare hours in front of us ...

 

[Weststander]

there are alot of potential vaccines in development, some already at clinicial trial (or so claimed, its difficult to wade through the news). they will have to go through regulatory approval process, we can expect this to be accelerated. then there's production, they have to make enough for mass immunisation programme. i've heard early autumn as possiblity if trails go well, to begin vaccinations.

Trump claimed this week that his wonderful scientists, possibly the best in the world, in fact they are the best in the world, are now very close to finding the vaccine.

He’s not happy with the (left wing) body set up by a previous president, that tests new drugs for human safety, as the years of delay prevent lives being saved.

Allied to Trump’s newly found skill in promoting and prescribing medicines, the vaccines will tested on the American public first.

 

[Harry Wilson's tackle]

I thought I'd bring Brexit into it, because we now have a Brexiteer government. As to "we haven't even left yet", what do you think happened on Jan 31st of this year?
And I've no idea what the policies adopted by Italy, Spain and France has got to do with our government ignoring WHO guidance for too long, but perhaps you could let me know.

The EU have behaved like a lawn bowles assocaition during an imminent nuclear attack. Beyond irrelevant. Who knew?

I did. The EU is a trade organisation and anti-war mechanism. It is not our government. It was never something we had to leave.

Still, eh?