Main Coronavirus / Covid-19 Discussion Thread

[atomised]

Got an email form my Brother in China. Streets filling up again, talk of schools opening next week. Lock down pretty much over. He’s off for a picnic with wife and daughter. First proper time out if the apartment in three months.

It's the time to see how well their measures have truly worked

 

[The Clamp]

It's the time to see how well their measures have truly worked

Indeed. Though they had a dry run of this a few years back with SARS where the same measures were used with success. C19 is obviously different but they know what they’re doing when it comes to a lock down.
Only time will tell now...

 

[rogersix]

Dear lord
They are just people with families just like you and me. You might not agree with who they support or have voted for but wishing that is beyond nasty.
Seriously .....have a look at yourself in the mirror.

they are not like me

it's possible that you maybe projecting your personality onto what wrongun said,

have a little think?

 

[Green Cross Code Man]

they are not like me

it's possible that you maybe projecting your personality onto what wrongun said,

have a little think?

What? [MENTION=21401]pastafarian[/MENTION] noted that wrong-direction had wished death on millions of people. Acceptable? No.

Have a little think.

 

[RossyG]

Hopefully the virus wipes out 50% of Trump supporters, and the other 50% shoot each other.

Thanks for confirming that you’re the wretched little prick that I’d always suspected you were.

 

[atomised]

Indeed. Though they had a dry run of this a few years back with SARS where the same measures were used with success. C19 is obviously different but they know what they’re doing when it comes to a lock down.
Only time will tell now...

I guess if it appears successful we can start to look ahead to how our situation may pan out over the coming months

 

[rogersix]

What? [MENTION=21401]pastafarian[/MENTION] noted that wrong-direction had wished death on millions of people. Acceptable? No.

Have a little think.

holy fuk. did you take it seriously aswell?

i didn't know there were peolpe like you, and now two at once.

these truly are strange times we live in

 

[Green Cross Code Man]

holy fuk. did you take it seriously aswell?

i didn't know there were peolpe like you, and now two at once.

these truly are strange times we live in

So polite. Thanks. There was not any indication that the post was humorous, just a comment wishing death on millions. Yeah such a funny joke.

 

[The Clamp]

So does this mean that "herd immunity" has been achieved there and they will experience very few new cases... or should they expect a resurgence of the virus, albeit in more manageable numbers?

The feeling in the general population, according to my Brother, is one of “I don’t really care, just let me go somewhere and do something”. Hopefully they won’t have to rethink that attitude.

 

[Green Cross Code Man]

This is good news if it turns out to be true:

https://www.bmj.com/content/369/bmj.m1375

 

[rogersix]

So polite. Thanks. There was not indication that the post was humorous, just a comment wishing death on millions. Yeah such a funny joke.

blimey, how on earth could you take that seriously.......?

stooo-oopid question i know, but are you a bot?

obvs you'll say no either way

that emoji doesn't mean top yourself by the by

 

[Triggaaar]

So does this mean that "herd immunity" has been achieved there and they will experience very few new cases...

No, it means they think they have so few current cases that they can keep it from spreading.

 

[Bakero]

I fear for the US. Their press conferences are notable for the questioners being more forceful (and being blanked) than ours, and their top people cow-tailing to the President, and showering him with praise. The new phrase is "Trump Time", meaning more than ASAP. They seem to be heading for a war-footing mentality but their State system doesn't seem to allow them to take a national response.

 

[Harry Wilson's tackle]

There are problems with a 'monolithic' structure such as the NHS, particularly given it's one of the (if not, the) largest employers in the world. But that is actually serving as its strength in the current situation. I'd be less concerned if the debate was solely between the NHS as currently configured, and the national insurance model adopted by Germany. But it's not, and the leading voices are calling for privatised healthcare.
They have that in the US, and check out the figures, they spend twice as much on healthcare as we do in the UK. Our spend is currently historically low because, while increasing spend, since 2010 the government have lowered this both vis-a-vis GDP (which is how healthcare spending is calculated) and demand (demand for healthcare increases because of an ageing population).

This pricked my interest when I read it yesterday then I was distracted. Not sure your point here: it costs American individuals much more for healthcare than it costs individuals in the UK. This is because drug companies, diagnostic companies and equipment companies charge more for their stuff in the US. This is because private health insurance will meet the charges. This is because Americans are prepared to pay a high premium for their health insurance. In other words it is a racket.

The only way we (the people of the planet Earth) can move forward with 'affordable' health care is to have a global 'nationalised' pharmaceutical and related enterprise. This is never likely to happen unless something game-changing like, er, a pandemic kicks in. In parma, attrition (compound failure) is so brutal that for many therapeutic areas it costs more than a billion pounds now to develop the drug (which means preclinical efficacy and safety and then the eye-wateringly expensive multicentre trials needed to show clinical efficacy and safety).

And before anyone says anything, generics are pirates who let big companies do all the work (and make all the spend) then basically counterfeit the drug when the patent expires, and drug patents don't last long.

When a company has a big clinical fail these days (whether through lack of efficacy, the ususal reason these days, or safety/adversity) the company is likely to go bust. Taking a drug to man is like doing all your betting account on one big bet. Consequently, acquisitions and mergers mean there are few big pharma companies left. I'd like to see them all merge and be under some sort of modern upgraded UN oversight, for common good. The employees need to be paid less but their positions made more secure. I could go on, but, cracked record, and all that....

 

[Harry Wilson's tackle]

...but how could that even be possible without herd immunity?

The reason the virus is so successful is because so many people show few to no symptoms.

Is China making a mistake here?

The modellers say the more successful China are now (and the isolation has been draconian) the worse the second peak will be in the autumn (we are not predicted to have a second peak, owing to the decline in new cases due to there being too few folk, not previously exposed to the virus, to do the spreading - so called herd immunity).

You are exactly correct. Herd immunity requires either that most people are vaccinated or most people (still alive) have had the disease and recovered. Simple isolation will work only if you stay isolated. Forever.

 

[Triggaaar]

...but how could that even be possible without herd immunity?

If everyone who had it was locked up for two months, then everyone they passed it to would have had it and got over it by now, so no one will still be contagious. So if no one has it, then no one else can catch it. That appears to be their plan.

For herd immunity, something like 60 to 80% of people need to have had it. That's about 1 billion people in China. Even just 36% of their population is 500 million people. If 500 million people in China have had it (which really wouldn't be enough to give them herd immunity), a 0.1% fatality rate would still have lead to 500,000 deaths.

Is China making a mistake here?

We don't yet know the best solution to the problem. Lockdown will obviously work to stop the spread, but it also has many side effects. China's lockdown has undoubtedly severely limited the spread of the virus, but we don't know the true numbers and we don't know the cost of their actions. But it's not realistic for them to stay in lockdown for the next year, so they have to lift restrictions at some point. If they can keep the number of cases under control, then it will be saving a lot of lives.

But no, they don't have herd immunity.

 

[Harry Wilson's tackle]

This is good news if it turns out to be true:

https://www.bmj.com/content/369/bmj.m1375

I don't buy it. A virus that can lead to no symptoms, or cause pneumonia so severe that people drown in their own pulmonary exudate?

As [MENTION=4019]Triggaaar[/MENTION] has noted, there may be something wrong with the information coming from China and, increasingly, I am beginning to agree.

 

[Mellotron]

New study backing up the high asymptomatic theory. Latest case study group showed 78% asymptomatic.

https://www.bmj.com/content/369/bmj.m1375

Ah seen it’s already been put up. It would explain why it is so insanely contagious.

The report above refers to the Italian studies backing this up. Are Italy also lying?

 

[Harry Wilson's tackle]

If everyone who had it was locked up for two months, then everyone they passed it to would have had it and got over it by now, so no one will still be contagious. So if no one has it, then no one else can catch it. That appears to be their plan.

For herd immunity, something like 60 to 80% of people need to have had it. That's about 1 billion people in China. Even just 36% of their population is 500 million people. If 500 million people in China have had it (which really wouldn't be enough to give them herd immunity), a 0.1% fatality rate would still have lead to 500,000 deaths.

We don't yet know the best solution to the problem. Lockdown will obviously work to stop the spread, but it also has many side effects. China's lockdown has undoubtedly severely limited the spread of the virus, but we don't know the true numbers and we don't know the cost of their actions. But it's not realistic for them to stay in lockdown for the next year, so they have to lift restrictions at some point. If they can keep the number of cases under control, then it will be saving a lot of lives.

But no, they don't have herd immunity.

100% Correct. Or, if you're Chinese, 120% correct.

 

[Green Cross Code Man]

I don't buy it. A virus that can lead to no symptoms, or cause pneumonia so severe that people drown in their own pulmonary exudate?

As [MENTION=4019]Triggaaar[/MENTION] has noted, there may be something wrong with the information coming from China and, increasingly, I am beginning to agree.

Yes, has to be taken with an extremely large pinch of salt. The hope I have though is that it backs up a study in the Italian town where all of its inhabitants were tested:

https://www.theguardian.com/comment...ed-coronavirus-mass-testing-covid-19-italy-vo