Main Coronavirus / Covid-19 Discussion Thread

[beorhthelm]

It's starting to feel like certain aspects of our strategy is unravelling. The lack of testing and PPE is starting to look a bit of a failure. Lock downs are all well and good, but if you're not mass testing, you have no way of measuring where you are in the epidemic. Politician after politician keep coming on saying they've ordered this stuff, but why wasn't it ordered at the start of February!? Why not order a shed load of PPE, and if wasn't needed just keep it in storage just in case.

no one is mass testing, there isnt the resources to do so. some countries have tested more, still fractions of 1% of population. the PPE issue is great concern because it seems simple, though there is a problem of the world chasing supplies (including China apparently buying stocks in Australia to ship back), so have we not ordered, or not managed to obtain? if masks should be changed after attending every patient, that requires millions of masks a day, the scale of the problem is quite large. from one number i seen, thats more than the annual production from 3M, while they ramp up production theres alot of buyers.

 

[Barham's tash]

Don’t think so, this is just another minor scare. All these periodic viruses rarely kill more than a few nun died worldwide yet the media goes nuts about 2 deaths in China, a country with 3 billion people. I bet 2 people fell off ladders and died in China in last hour alone. Nah, seen and heard enough of these ‘outbreaks’ during my life to know this will pass without too much alarm. Yes I am being complacent but only because I’m right. We love an end of the world is nigh story and Hollywood has an awful lot to answer for!

Well this has aged well. Hopefully still with us [MENTION=663]portlock seagull[/MENTION]

 

[Bold Seagull]

no one is mass testing, there isnt the resources to do so. some countries have tested more, still fractions of 1% of population. the PPE issue is great concern because it seems simple, though there is a problem of the world chasing supplies (including China apparently buying stocks in Australia to ship back), so have we not ordered, or not managed to obtain? if masks should be changed after attending every patient, that requires millions of masks a day, the scale of the problem is quite large. from one number i seen, thats more than the annual production from 3M, while they ramp up production theres alot of buyers.

On the subject of PPE, I suspect every country has some kind of pandemic modelling or scenario planning. As I said in another thread, my suspicion is that the Excel conversion plans existed as a contingency sometime ago, I struggle to believe it was just put together then built in the matter of weeks.

So obviously if you operate on a supply as you need PPE strategy only, then any kind of extraordinary event is going to be difficult to cope with. If you have a contingency plan, then you should have PPE in storage ready to use. Of course there is now a worldwide shortage – that is why you expect governments to have contingencies.

As for testing, it's not just the amount of testing, it is the strategy of how you test and record the data. We're still talking about a tracking app, South Korea had one up and running at the start of Feb, and their testing was targeted and effective. They got their 4 biggest chemical companies together in Jan and instructed them to make the tests en-masse and fast. Feels like we've used up all our kits, have none left for the frontline healthcare workers, and we're now suffering because we cannot test. We have doctors and nurses at home who may just have a common cough or cold but are off work because they cannot be tested.

 

[sparkie]

If industry can be repurposed to build ventilators, it can also be repurposed to create PPE.

So, why the wait ? Surely we arn't hoping to award a fat contract to a government crony ?

 

[beorhthelm]

So obviously if you operate on a supply as you need PPE strategy only, then any kind of extraordinary event is going to be difficult to cope with. If you have a contingency plan, then you should have PPE in storage ready to use. Of course there is now a worldwide shortage – that is why you expect governments to have contingencies.

agree, and we have to wonder what exactly Public Health for England (and equivilents) have been doing all these years, apart from telling us to eat ever more vegtables. we should remember that earlier in the year we did have success with test-tracking, cutting off early spread. seems that we missed opportunity to follow on when infection re-emerged. maybe we did use up capacity so couldnt, now dont have capacity for the switch to testing frontline staff either.

 

[beorhthelm]

If industry can be repurposed to build ventilators, it can also be repurposed to create PPE.

So, why the wait ? Surely we arn't hoping to award a fat contract to a government crony ?

industry is being repurposed, takes time to get setup and new product tested. see story about Royal Mint producing visors, one of the F1 companies making goggles. they then run into problems of raw material supply.

 

[Wrong-Direction]

Arresting people for walking their dogs in the middle of nowhere whilst tubes are rammed still in London ffs

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[sparkie]

Arresting people for walking their dogs in the middle of nowhere whilst tubes are rammed still in London ffs

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They won't have been arrested for dog walking - any arrests would have been for being arsey with the police when asked to go home.

 

[GT49er]

Arresting people for walking their dogs in the middle of nowhere whilst tubes are rammed still in London ffs

The point would surely be, how did they get to the middle of nowhere - unnecessary travel and all that.

 

[Is it PotG?]

If you need to ask if the journey is necessary, it probably isn't.

 

[Green Cross Code Man]

It's starting to feel like certain aspects of our strategy is unravelling. The lack of testing and PPE is starting to look a bit of a failure. Lock downs are all well and good, but if you're not mass testing, you have no way of measuring where you are in the epidemic. Politician after politician keep coming on saying they've ordered this stuff, but why wasn't it ordered at the start of February!? Why not order a shed load of PPE, and if wasn't needed just keep it in storage just in case.

That is not completely true.

If the govt largely tests the most serious cases only and keeps a consistent approach throughout, then the epidemic can still be measured by the increase/decrease of cases. The important thing is consistency. It is another thing altogether, mass testing with an antibody test, as that will give accurate data on the percentage of the population that have had it.

 

[Green Cross Code Man]

So obviously if you operate on a supply as you need PPE strategy only, then any kind of extraordinary event is going to be difficult to cope with. If you have a contingency plan, then you should have PPE in storage ready to use. Of course there is now a worldwide shortage – that is why you expect governments to have contingencies.

An article on the BBC yesterday stated that PPE has a very limited shelf life so is impossible to manufacture simply for a rainy day.

 

[The Spanish]

They won't have been arrested for dog walking - any arrests would have been for being arsey with the police when asked to go home.

Under section 12 of the being arsey with the police act 1882?

 

[Si Gull]

563 deaths today

 

[Titanic]

563 deaths today ��

Total UK deaths in hospital now 2352. There will be more who weren't in hospital.

 

[The Wizard]

Expected jumps, horrible none the less!

4324 new cases, 563 new deaths.

 

[atomised]

In the metro article it says 1.7 million have contacted the nhs with symptoms in the last 15 days. Whilst that doesn't specify individual cases but I seems a telling figure as to how widespread it could be

 

[Mellotron]

In the metro article it says 1.7 million have contacted the nhs with symptoms in the last 15 days. Whilst that doesn't specify individual cases but I seems a telling figure as to how widespread it could be

And that of course doesn't include the high percentage of people (anywhere from 30-75%+ from limited studies so far) who are asymptomatic.

 

[The Clamp]

If industry can be repurposed to build ventilators, it can also be repurposed to create PPE.

So, why the wait ? Surely we arn't hoping to award a fat contract to a government crony ?

Our masks for work aren’t being delivered until April 27th :-(

 

[BBassic]

And that of course doesn't include the high percentage of people (anywhere from 30-75%+ from limited studies so far) who are asymptomatic.

Is that 30-75% of the total UK population? Sorry if that's been answered elsewhere.