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[Politics] Liz Truss **RESIGNS 20/10/2022**



sparkie

Well-known member
Jul 17, 2003
12,824
Hove
Probably worth saying that the dollar rate is back up to $1.09, it was $1.08 pre the mini budget.
Well done to the Bank Of England for spending £60billion yesterday to stop the pensions collapse.

Sorry, future taxpayers, this one is on Truss.
 




Giraffe

VERY part time moderator
Helpful Moderator
NSC Patron
Aug 8, 2005
26,750
It's been a pretty relentless slide for the last year. Can't blame Liz. Yes you can blame the Tories. But the Liz bit is a very temporary blip by comparison.
 

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sparkie

Well-known member
Jul 17, 2003
12,824
Hove
It's been a pretty relentless slide for the last year. Can't blame Liz. Yes you can blame the Tories. But the Liz bit is a very temporary blip by comparison.
I assume you voted for her leadership and are doubling down on how 'right' your choice was.

If so, perhaps better to cut your losses early and put it down to experience ?
 


Swansman

Pro-peace
May 13, 2019
22,320
Sweden
It's been a pretty relentless slide for the last year. Can't blame Liz. Yes you can blame the Tories. But the Liz bit is a very temporary blip by comparison.

Unless its a little bit less temporary.

But sure, there has been a slip and there would probably continue to be a slip as the war in Ukraine is very good for the US and not so good for Europe/UK. You could put anyone in charge and the outcome would have been the same: a hard and difficult winter. But there's no good reason to make it even more hard and difficult, and unless there's some great explanation that both the markets and the BOE and pretty much everyone else out there missed out on, the mini budget will make the inevitable problems more hard and difficult.
 




Thunder Bolt

Silly old bat
It's been a pretty relentless slide for the last year. Can't blame Liz. Yes you can blame the Tories. But the Liz bit is a very temporary blip by comparison.

Truss and Kwarteng were co authors of this book in 2012. They intended to do exactly what they did last Friday.

[tweet]1575350422088335361[/tweet]

Basically, it's an excuse to cut back the majority of public expenditure which includes selling off the NHS.
 


Audax

Boing boing boing...
Aug 3, 2015
3,106
Uckfield
Okay I'll stick my head above the parapet! Something had to be done differently. We are going down a very slippery path where it is clear that the standard ways of dealing with things is not working, for anyone - most countries are suffering in exactly the same way we are. The perceived wisdom of the tried and tested solutions are not working, because funnily enough we haven't had a situation like this before. Global Pandemic, followed by war in Europe, together with fuel crisis. Three massive events all coming at the same time. Who is to say that the old economic thinking still works? I admire the fact they are trying something different and believe she needs time for this to play out. It may be a fail, but given the hand she was dealt, at least she is trying to find a new path, rather than just the same old tired economic plans. The institutions don't like it because it's different. That doesn't mean to say it's wrong. We won't know that for some time.

And it is no surprise to me she is floundering in these interviews. She has an awful lot to deal with at the moment. Would be very difficult for any one person to have all the answers right now. Look at Biden for goodness sakes, all over the place.

But she's not doing anything different really, is she? She's putting forward a slightly different version of an economic approach that's been tried a couple of times before and failed spectacularly both times. That's part of why the markets got spooked. The other part is because they announced it in an absolutely cack-handed way (no OBR costings, only a partial of the full plan, etc) and basically said "we've said this is going to work, so believe us".

End result? Attempt #3 reached imminent disaster point in literally days, when attempts #1 and #2 took years to do it.
 


Audax

Boing boing boing...
Aug 3, 2015
3,106
Uckfield
Probably worth saying that the dollar rate is back up to $1.09, it was $1.08 pre the mini budget.

Correction: it was at or over $1.1260 immediately before the mini-budget. It spiked to $1.09 this morning but is now retreating back down to where it opened the day.

Conversely: the problem gilt yields went the wrong way (temporarily) off the back of Truss's interviews.
 




Bozza

You can change this
Helpful Moderator
Jul 4, 2003
56,152
Back in Sussex
It's been a pretty relentless slide for the last year. Can't blame Liz. Yes you can blame the Tories. But the Liz bit is a very temporary blip by comparison.

You're moving the goalposts a little bit here - no-one was talking about the long-term trend of Sterling and the Dollar. The very short-term status of this was started by you...

Probably worth saying that the dollar rate is back up to $1.09, it was $1.08 pre the mini budget.

I, and others, were merely correcting that.
 


Westdene Seagull

aka Cap'n Carl Firecrotch
NSC Patron
Oct 27, 2003
21,310
The arse end of Hangleton
The more I hear of Truss the more I warm to her. I think she may surprise us in terms of her resilience, and who knows they may have made the right call on the economy in the long run? Only time will tell.

I recall lots of complaints when Thatcher started down this path, but she was right in the end.

There is a huge difference in having to swallow a bitter pill to get the economy back from the abyss - as Thacher was forced to do to all of us, and forcing us all to have to swallow the pill after purposefully crashing an economy that was ticking along - as Truss has done. As for the long term - what about those people now suffering financial hardship ? What of those that will lose their homes ? I guess you'll tell them to 'stick it out - it will be great in the long term' ?
 


Argartu

Active member
Jun 5, 2014
254
[tweet]1575358210709520385[/tweet]

I'm sure everything is going to work out great when the Economist is putting out such supportive front covers..
 




Giraffe

VERY part time moderator
Helpful Moderator
NSC Patron
Aug 8, 2005
26,750
You're moving the goalposts a little bit here - no-one was talking about the long-term trend of Sterling and the Dollar. The very short-term status of this was started by you...



I, and others, were merely correcting that.

Yes and I confirmed I quoted the wrong the number. You were right.

I just thought it was worth highlighting that slippage of the pound v dollar is not a new thing (as you will well know). Our Florida trip next year is getting more and more expensive!
 


Uh_huh_him

Well-known member
Sep 28, 2011
11,267
The more I hear of Truss the more I warm to her. I think she may surprise us in terms of her resilience, and who knows they may have made the right call on the economy in the long run? Only time will tell.

I recall lots of complaints when Thatcher started down this path, but she was right in the end.

A lot of Tory sympathisers are trying to make this comparison.
It's dangerous to compare the situations as Truss has far less to play with than Thatcher did.

Thatcher was buoyed by North Sea Gas and Privatisation revenues.
This pretty much funded all of her economic policy.

The family jewels have been sold and Truss is having to borrow £150bn before she even starts.
Thatcher was also a competent politician.

There are no similarities.
 






Bozza

You can change this
Helpful Moderator
Jul 4, 2003
56,152
Back in Sussex
Probably worth saying that the dollar rate is back up to $1.09, it was $1.08 pre the mini budget.

Yes and I confirmed I quoted the wrong the number. You were right.

I just thought it was worth highlighting that slippage of the pound v dollar is not a new thing (as you will well know). Our Florida trip next year is getting more and more expensive!

Agreed and I know, but you seemed to be trying to make a point that the £/$ exchange rate had been a positive outcome from the mini-budget when, unfortunately, it hasn't.

(We already found many things eye-wateringly expensive this summer. With Floridian sales tax coming into play, right now you'll essentially be worse off than £1=£1 parity when looking at quoted prices.)
 


Uh_huh_him

Well-known member
Sep 28, 2011
11,267
I agree with that. And that is why NO ONE on either side of the argument can know whether they are right.

Yeah I agree with that.

Personally I don't think a Prime minister should gamble the economy on a hunch.

I can't see any logic to borrowing big during a period of increasing interest rates, to give that money away to wealthy individuals.
If she's right, then Kudos, but she is increasingly on her own, in that view.
 


A1X

Well-known member
NSC Patron
Sep 1, 2017
19,118
Deepest, darkest Sussex
Going back to Liz's media rounds, BBC Bristol clearly had enough of her nonsense

[tweet]1575393556067393538[/tweet]
 


Swansman

Pro-peace
May 13, 2019
22,320
Sweden
Yes and I confirmed I quoted the wrong the number. You were right.

I just thought it was worth highlighting that slippage of the pound v dollar is not a new thing (as you will well know). Our Florida trip next year is getting more and more expensive!

If anyone who isn't a millionaire will be able to go vacation in Florida next years, things will have gone very very well all things considered, so let's hope for an expensive trip for you guys.
 




Audax

Boing boing boing...
Aug 3, 2015
3,106
Uckfield
It's been a pretty relentless slide for the last year. Can't blame Liz. Yes you can blame the Tories. But the Liz bit is a very temporary blip by comparison.

You shouldn't look at GBP USD in isolation, especially in relation to what's happened in the last week. Here's a comparison chart showing GBP->USD and EUR->USD shifts over the last 12 months. Notice that both GBP and EUR have been sliding against the USD all year. But look at the very end of the chart. GBP had, in general, been more resilient than the EUR - right up until that "fiscal event" was announced, at which point GBP fell off a cliff relative to both EUR and USD. There is a clear and obvious impact there from the fiscal event.

So two stories here:

1. USD has been strengthening in general since March 2022, affecting pretty much all currencies.

2. UK Fiscal event last week, layered on top of the above trend, has sent the GBP down sharply.

currency.png
 


PILTDOWN MAN

Well-known member
NSC Patron
Sep 15, 2004
18,980
Hurst Green
The BoE has chucked £65 at the problem caused by this government. That is now a debt.

The price of food and goods has risen mainly due to the cost of fuel and electricity etc. There is an issue on shortages of products that has led to a rise in certain areas but mainly it's the cost of production and delivering the goods.

Fuel is taxed at over 50% then VAT added after that raising around £40b per year for the government. If they zero rated fuel for all companies in the UK (via tax rebates) and zero rated utilities this would have a dramatic effect on costs. This could be offset with a tax grab on the oil company's profits.

A simple way of reducing inflation.

We also as a nation need to stop wanting all things all the time and get back to seasonal variances in our food, those produced here. Bring back Buy British Products where the suppliers are given help through tax breaks.

Food waste in this country is down to many factors but a large one is over production. There's far too much choice as everyone demands everything grown worldwide to be available in our local supermarkets. We need to stop importing all this luxury stuff and get back to basics. Yes we need to import produce that is a staple in our food but do we really need exotic fruits from Africa?
 


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