Last 3 fixtures, are we blessed?

[Sussex Nomad]

All I can say is I love our enthusiasm on here, togetherness and confidence.

 

[Simster]

Yes, but you haven't been supporting Reading for 25 years like I have.

Games like that are Forest and Wigan certainties.

Do me a favour with your dumb hard luck stories - you've been promoted to the Premier League TWICE in those 25 years, unlike us!

 

[Sussex Nomad]

Do me a favour with your dumb hard luck stories - you've been promoted to the Premier League TWICE in those 25 years, unlike us!

How long did it take you to get an account on Massive? Been over a day I'm waiting now.

 

[Napper]

Pouring over "expected goals" statistics is a waste of time and an over-complication. Only one stat matters and that's the points tally.

Having seen the team regularly this season and actually watched the football, we have not been "lucky" any more than any other team, we are a good side who know how to get our noses in front in a match and stay there. Our downfall is when we fall behind, we often lose (save for the Bristol City match).

If we remain in the play-off places at the end of the season, we deserve to be there. And if we're not, then on balance we don't. It doesn't mean we've been lucky up until now.

Teams at the top all get luck.

To be fair , I thought we were a tad fortunate to get the point at your place.

If you had got the win there then the gap is 4 points.

As it is , 8 points over 22 games really is nothing.

Long way to go

 

[Simster]

How long did it take you to get an account on Massive? Been over a day I'm waiting now.

I can't remember. Sorry.

 

[Gazwag]

Yes, but you haven't been supporting Reading for 25 years like I have.

Games like that are Forest and Wigan certainties.

The way your fans treated Rosenior and the way that **** almost ended his career I really hope we get a repeat of the "on the pitch celebration" when Ulloa messed up your season.

 

[theroyal]

The way your fans treated Rosenior and the way that **** almost ended his career

I was at that game and a couple of fans were applauding Rosenior when he came over to take a throw.

Every club has its share of morons.

 

[Blue Valkyrie]

I am convinced Reading will finish in the top 4.

Whether they make top 2 remains to be seen.

 

[Rugrat]

Reading are currently the "luckiest" team in the Championship

Even more than Wendy who have scored 7 or 8 of their miserly total in stoppage time?

 

[Moshe Gariani]

If we remain in the play-off places at the end of the season, we deserve to be there. And if we're not, then on balance we don't. It doesn't mean we've been lucky up until now.

Fair enough. Points earned matter most and not levels of performance leading to chances created/allowed etc. but fans wasting time on a chat forum can delve a bit deeper into what might be most likely to happen over the rest of the season.

The "3-6-1" type stats and prediction of the final table are good for that. Based purely on stats and number crunching they have not fancied Reading all season and it is interesting to try and work out why that should be.

One possibility could be to do with Reading having so far played only 5 of the top 15 teams away from home. From those games Reading have taken 3 points - scoring 4 goals and conceding 16 - with the 3 points coming at Barnsley in September during a horror run for the hosts of 6pts out of a possible 39.

Reading's next 9 away games are all against the remaining teams from the top 15 and that will be working in combination with poor attack/defence stats in making the prediction.

 

[Kalimantan Gull]

Readings next nine away games are Derby, Birmingham, Ipswich, Huddersfield, Brighton, Preston, Sheff Wed, Norwich, Aston Villa (before they finish with Forest and Burton). If they're still close to us after that lot, then fair play to them

 

[Moshe Gariani]

Even more than Wendy who have scored 7 or 8 of their miserly total in stoppage time?

Nothing wrong with winning games late on. The later stages of matches often produce crucial goals and a team able to flourish during those periods will get rewards.

Massive have a strong squad and have apparently earned points in line with the quality of their attacking and defending stats. (according to 3-6-1).

 

[Justice]

We are Brighton over the many years of supporting our great club we are prone to major **** ups when everything looks rosie in the garden. IMO we are nowhere near promoted yet, last season the most frustrating game for me was Derby at home and we didn't in my mind seem to take it that seriously.

 

[theroyal]

One possibility could be to do with Reading having so far played only 5 of the top 15 teams away from home. From those games Reading have taken 3 points - scoring 4 goals and conceding 16 - with the 3 points coming at Barnsley in September during a horror run for the hosts of 6pts out of a possible 39.

Yeah. As I alluded earlier, in every match we've won we have scored the first goal, with the exception of Bristol City on Monday. We've also kept clean sheets in about half of our wins. Every match we've lost we've conceded first, and when we lose we often lose badly, with 5-0 Fulham, 4-1 Newcastle, 4-1 Brentford making up 3 of our 6 losses so far.

So I don't think it's luck as such, just we're excellent if we get the first goal, and shite if we concede first, which is most likely a result of the system we play. Although maybe a corner has been turned earlier this week in that regard.

 

[Gazwag]

I was at that game and a couple of fans were applauding Rosenior when he came over to take a throw.

Every club has its share of morons.

You obviously missed the abuse most of the right hand stand were giving him, I guess those applauding were those celebrating when he was on the stretcher

 

[FatSuperman]

Only one stat matters and that's the points tally.

If we remain in the play-off places at the end of the season, we deserve to be there. And if we're not, then on balance we don't. It doesn't mean we've been lucky up until now.

Absolutely, only stat that matters at the end is points. However the points to date aren't always the best indicator of what is going to happen for the rest of the season, to make some predictions about the finishing position you certainly do need to consider where the points have been garnered from, what matches remain, etc etc. Obviously you can cut it a thousand ways, but when you look at some of the statisticians (and they do tend to be individuals rather than professional outfits in this league), then you'll see that Reading are unfancied. It is felt that you've got away with it a bit more than the average (more penalties, some amazing games from AAH). On balance, you face more shots than a lot of other teams and the quality of those shots would indicate, that over a season you will finish lower than you currently are.

All of that said, there is nothing to say you won't simply outperform those statistics for the rest of the season - Leicester did and BHA have also been over performing recently (either through luck or individual skill).

 

[Blue Valkyrie]

I expect you'll be fine by then.

By contrast our run-in is Rotherham (H), Forest (A), Wigan (H) and Burton (A)

12 easy points there.

 

[theroyal]

Absolutely, only stat that matters at the end is points. However the points to date aren't always the best indicator of what is going to happen for the rest of the season, to make some predictions about the finishing position you certainly do need to consider where the points have been garnered from, what matches remain, etc etc. Obviously you can cut it a thousand ways, but when you look at some of the statisticians (and they do tend to be individuals rather than professional outfits in this league), then you'll see that Reading are unfancied. It is felt that you've got away with it a bit more than the average (more penalties, some amazing games from AAH). On balance, you face more shots than a lot of other teams and the quality of those shots would indicate, that over a season you will finish lower than you currently are.

All of that said, there is nothing to say you won't simply outperform those statistics for the rest of the season - Leicester did and BHA have also been over performing recently (either through luck or individual skill).

Fair play.

But I would say, on the penalties front - we've missed half of them! And I wouldn't say having a player have some good games is luck. AAH has been excellent for since last season.

 

[FatSuperman]

So I don't think it's luck as such, just we're excellent if we get the first goal, and shite if we concede first, which is most likely a result of the system we play. Although maybe a corner has been turned earlier this week in that regard.

There should be some good stats on that somewhere.

https://experimental361.com/2016/12/29/championship-trends-28-dec-2016/

Check this out, it shows each club's performance based on 'expected goals' and there actual results. The red line is where you are expected to be in terms of goal difference (based on a 10-game rolling average). Anything positive means you are winning the game. The blue line is your actual result.

The blue shading shows where you are outperforming the expected result, red shading shows where you are underperforming. It's hard to say why but ultimately it's either 'luck' or skilled players (clinical finishing from unlikely efforts etc). If a club is performing exactly in line with the expectation, then there won't be much shading, the blue and red lines will be close.

Currently Reading are significantly outperforming the expectation, whether that is due to player quality or luck is open to opinion. Note that Brighton are also outperforming the model, although over a much longer period so you could argue it's more likely to do with player/team quality. Same with Newcastle - the squad makes up the difference. First half of last season our actual results and expected results were very closely tracking.

 

[FatSuperman]

Fair play.

But I would say, on the penalties front - we've missed half of them! And I wouldn't say having a player have some good games is luck. AAH has been excellent for since last season.

Yes I remember being amazed by him last season as well, imagine if he faced less shots - I suspect this discussion would be very different!