Is 86 points enough for automatic promotion?

[beardy gull]

To see how many points have been needed historically for a 2nd place finish you need to see how many points the team in 3rd got then add +1 Gd. Simples.

 

[Kalimantan Gull]

Part way through a season I always look at goal difference rather than points. Its my belief that the team with the best goal difference is the best team, and over the course of a 46-game season that team gets the most points. Fairly obvious really.

there is usually one team a sesaon that bucks the trend - last year it was Derby being shit with a +29 GD, 3 years ago Hull came second with +9, but for the most part the league is in order of goal difference

 

[Machiavelli]

Part way through a season I always look at goal difference rather than points. Its my belief that the team with the best goal difference is the best team, and over the course of a 46-game season that team gets the most points. Fairly obvious really.

there is usually one team a sesaon that bucks the trend - last year it was Derby being shit with a +29 GD, 3 years ago Hull came second with +9, but for the most part the league is in order of goal difference

So it's not obvious. Why are so many on this thread so keen to take variables that don't matter -- number of wins, goal difference, etc -- when the only thing that does matter is finishing on more points (or with a better goal difference, although this is far less likely to materialise) than the team in third place.

 

[Triggaaar]

To see how many points have been needed historically for a 2nd place finish you need to see how many points the team in 3rd got then add +1 Gd. Simples.

Please tell me this is a joke :

 

[Kalimantan Gull]

So it's not obvious. Why are so many on this thread so keen to take variables that don't matter -- number of wins, goal difference, etc -- when the only thing that does matter is finishing on more points (or with a better goal difference, although this is far less likely to materialise) than the team in third place.

Because this is about predicting which teams will have the most points and I'm just saying that teams with the best goal difference midway through tend to rise to the top by the end.

 

[DJ NOBO]

Why much more likely - two positive results from next two games and we could be top by Saturday 3pm.

Boro, Burnley and Hull are just better resourced so more likely to end stronger......but Ok you have a point and the table is tight and we have knockaert. I'm formally removing the 'much'!!

 

[Joe Gatting's Dad]

In the next few weeks all the top six are playing one another at least once.

As in any season if you average one point a game you will go down and if you average two points a game you will go up. We are not far short of this.

 

[Rugrat]

In the next few weeks all the top six are playing one another at least once.

Burnley only play 2 - Boro and BHA
Boro play 3 - Hull, Burnley and BHA
Wednesday 3 - Hull, BHA, Derby
Derby 3 - Hull, Wednesday, BHA
Hull 4 - BHA, Wednesday, Boro, Derby

Whereas we have to play all of them!.

So whilst we have arguably the toughest challenge it also gives us the opportunity to take points from them vs relying on others. Can't make my mid up if that gives us an advantage but I'd much prefer the Burnley run in I think

 

[Nathan]

In the next few weeks all the top six are playing one another at least once.

As in any season if you average one point a game you will go down and if you average two points a game you will go up. We are not far short of this.

But we want to know how many points for second this season!

The problem is you can work out the average from whatever season and you can work out the points needed, but each season is different.

I think you are right, if we can average 2 points a game we will be close to top 2, but will not guarantee it!

 

[Machiavelli]

Burnley only play 2 - Boro and BHA
Boro play 3 - Hull, Burnley and BHA
Wednesday 3 - Hull, BHA, Derby
Derby 3 - Hull, Wednesday, BHA
Hull 4 - BHA, Wednesday, Boro, Derby

Whereas we have to play all of them!.

So whilst we have arguably the toughest challenge it also gives us the opportunity to take points from them vs relying on others. Can't make my mid up if that gives us an advantage but I'd much prefer the Burnley run in I think

Interesting. I'd definitely prefer Burnley's predicament. Slightly in our favour is that three of those games are at home, whereas two are away (one of which is the final game, so things ought to be far clearer as to what's required out of that game than the earlier ones).

 

[beardy gull]

Please tell me this is a joke :

Nope. It doesn't matter how many points the team in 2nd got. They only needed the same as the 3rd place and better GD. It's not difficult to follow.

 

[Triggaaar]

Nope. It doesn't matter how many points the team in 2nd got. They only needed the same as the 3rd place and better GD. It's not difficult to follow.

Yeah, except that you're wrong. Read the thread to see why.

 

[beardy gull]

Yeah, except that you're wrong. Read the thread to see why.

I've read the thread. Neither of my posts are wrong. Last season Watford finished 2nd with 89 points. They didn't NEED 89 points though. They would have gone up with 86 points and a GD of +49

 

[Triggaaar]

Last season Watford finished 2nd with 89 points. They didn't NEED 89 points though. They would have gone up with 86 points and a GD of +49

Yes agreed, that is an example of a team that only needed to beat 3rd place by a point. However, last season, how many points did Brighton need to beat 3rd place by? If we had beaten 3rd place by a point, we'd have 87 points, and we wouldn't have finished in the top two. That's why it's not so simple.

 

[beardy gull]

Yes agreed, that is an example of a team that only needed to beat 3rd place by a point. However, last season, how many points did Brighton need to beat 3rd place by? If we had beaten 3rd place by a point, we'd have 87 points, and we wouldn't have finished in the top two. That's why it's not so simple.

Oh dear. Oh dear dear me.

 

[The Wookiee]

Nope. It doesn't matter how many points the team in 2nd got. They only needed the same as the 3rd place and better GD. It's not difficult to follow.

I get what you mean. Basically we should be looking at what points the third placed team has got historically and 1 point more would be enough to finish second, it's irrelevant how many points the second placed team actually finished with.

 

[Triggaaar]

Oh dear. Oh dear dear me.

Is it too difficult for you?

I get what you mean. Basically we should be looking at what points the third placed team has got historically and 1 point more would be enough to finish second, it's irrelevant how many points the second placed team actually finished with.

We all get what he means, he's saying the same as was already said on page one, and has already been discussed in other threads several times over the years.

 

[The Wookiee]

Is it too difficult for you?

We all get what he means, he's saying the same as was already said on page one, and has already been discussed in other threads several times over the years.

But some people have posted quoted what points the second placed team has got.

In last 10 seasons, points won by 2nd team ranged from 79 to 93. On 5 occasions, 2nd team has earned 86 or less, 5 times more.

So 86 is right on cusp historically as to whether it is enough. My instinct is that the top 5 are so competitive this season that 86 probably will be enough, but who knows.

 

[The Wookiee]

Is it too difficult for you?

We all get what he means, he's saying the same as was already said on page one, and has already been discussed in other threads several times over the years.

I've seen no mention on this thread what points the third placed team has achieved historically ? If that's under 86 points then yes 86 points historically has been enough to get promoted

 

[beardy gull]

Is it too difficult for you?

Not for me, no. To answer you're question we'd be 3rd. And Watford would have needed 87 points and a better GD in your example. Enough now.