[Albion] If Stoke lose to Man City

[BensGrandad]

Weird isn't it, posters are predicting losing 6 of 8 games, and still having a 'healthy' goal difference.

They are obviously thinking along the lines of us losing each game by 1 goal.and the odd one by 2.

 

[Triggaaar]

They are obviously thinking along the lines of us losing each game by 1 goal.and the odd one by 2.

No, they're just not thinking at all.

Southampton are 6 points behind us. If they win the next two, and we lose the next two, they will be ahead on GD.

Others teams have worse GD than Southampton, so it'll be harder for them, but they won't need to win 4 more games than us:

Taking into account our goal difference teams would have to win 4 more games than us with 7 games games remaining.

There are 8 games remaining, and winning 4 more games than us is an extra 12 points - we're only 7 ahead.

 

[Wardy's twin]

No, they're just not thinking at all.

Southampton are 6 points behind us. If they win the next two, and we lose the next two, they will be ahead on GD.

Others teams have worse GD than Southampton, so it'll be harder for them, but they won't need to win 4 more games than us:
There are 8 games remaining, and winning 4 more games than us is an extra 12 points - we're only 7 ahead.

I think we need to concentrate on our own players and some self belief and get 5-6 points from the next 21 available and that should be more than enough so that the last game of the season is a celebration irrespective of the result.

 

[Official Old Man]

Some interesting games coming up
West Ham.
Currently on 30 pts.= they MUST WIN against Saints & Stoke (both H) because H to both Manchester Utd, City and Everton along with A to Chelsea, Arsenal & Leicester makes our run in look like a stroll.
I'd be checking the train times to Ipswich & Norwich if I was them.
Bournemouth
Should get min 5 points at H to WBA, Palace or Swansea so safe. Could send Saints and Swansea down in successive games. Safe
Hudders.
4 winnable homes that they'll lose only to win at Brighton and Man City. Safe.
Newcastle
Same as Udders. Likely to lose at H to Udders just to complicate things but win at Everton. Will send WBA down. Safe.
Saints
Humiliation will be being sent down at home by Bournemouth, but place your bets, especially if they lose to West Ham. Down.
Palace
Only one more top 6 team to play. Will play Stoke & WBA after they have both been sent down. Safe.
Swansea
With both Stoke & Saints at home plus WBA away it's in their court. Unbelievably Safe with PL manager of the year?
Stoke
Like us, 5 of the top teams to play. All over by the time they go to Swansea on the last day. Down
WBA
Already gone.

And if you count it's four down making West Ham v Southampton the biggest game this year with the winner staying up.

 

[West Upper Seagull]

I’m so hoping that we win our next 2 home games giving us that genuine sense of safety when we go to Palace and simply ‘play’ them with no pressure ! Hopefully we won’t then get the same sterile performance we witnessed at Everton on Saturday !

 

[Triggaaar]

And if you count it's four down making West Ham v Southampton the biggest game this year with the winner staying up.

Massive relegation decider:
31st March, West Ham vs Southampton

Palace have a good run in, I think they'll be fine.

...

 

[GT49er]

I know this has been done to death but just saying .

Absolutely!

 

[studio150]

draw with Leicester and beat Huddersfield will go a long way towards making us safe.

Beating Palace away after securing the 4 points at home will remove any doubt

 

[LamieRobertson]

Obviously getting to the suggested safety mark is the number one goal....but i’d Also hope for a reasonable end (despite the tough finish) so we don’t go into next season on the back of five defeats

 

[The_Viper]

38 will be enough, said it all season. Been times when I didn't think we'd get it tbf but right now I'm more confident than ever.

 

[el punal]

I must admit to being disappointed with the performance at Everton, but in truth half expected it. We had been on a good run culminating in the important win against Arsenal, Everton, the polar opposite, losing badly on their last two fixtures. So, instead of starting like we did when we played Stoke we let Everton dominate, and therefore we never really got into the game. It was a relief then, when the results came in, of those teams around/below us also performing badly. Southampton, West Brom, West Ham, Bournemouth, Palace all losing, and Huddersfield drawing with Swansea which was ideal.

If Stoke do lose to Man City then, yes, it would be a strangely satisfying set of results for the weekend fixtures. We pretty much stay as we are and the number of games left to play less.

To be 7 points clear of the bottom 3 with only 8 games to go is a huge advantage. Let's hope it stays that way until the end of the season.

 

[LVGull]

I think we will only need 4 more points.

38 will keep us up, finishing 4th from bottom

Obviously hope we finish much higher but having looked at all the fixtures left, I do think 38 with the best goal difference will just be enough.

I know this has been done to death but just saying .

We are safe guys. Stop worrying.

 

[Bold Seagull]

I have the bottom 3:

18 Swansea 35 points
19 Stoke 35 points
20 WBA 26 points

It’s been these 3 teams for me since the beginning of Feb.
I originally had WBA on 29, Swansea 34 & Stoke 36. The key is that the bottom clubs rarely have unexpected wins

I'm with you, although Southampton look dreadful too, but the gist of your post, I'm revising down my estimate and think 36 even 35 might be enough. There are too many teams down there that need to get pretty much 1ppg to get up to 34, and they haven't achieved 1ppg all season.

 

[Bold Seagull]

I think we will only need 4 more points.

38 will keep us up, finishing 4th from bottom

Obviously hope we finish much higher but having looked at all the fixtures left, I do think 38 with the best goal difference will just be enough.

I know this has been done to death but just saying .

I think you are over estimating what the bottom 4 or 5 will get. I think the bottom 5 will remain as they are, just perhaps switch around with each other. Very much doubt that more than 2 of that 5 will get more than 1ppg.

 

[Stat Brother]

It would be nice if CH were able to 'do a Dyche'.

Words to the effect of 'right lads you've got 40 points, now relax and enjoy yourselves'.

 

[Blue Valkyrie]

I think we could already have enough points, but will get very nervous if we lose to both Leicester and Huddersfield.

 

[Springal]

Even after Arsenal I was a bit nervous we were being over confident. I think we need minimum of a win from Leicester, Burnley or Palace but ideally 4 points. Big ask

 

[beorhthelm]

target should be 40 points. aiming for anything less leaves no room for error. we should be looking to get something out of the big games, by being bit more assertive, not just hoping to keep down the score.

 

[Bold Seagull]

Even after Arsenal I was a bit nervous we were being over confident. I think we need minimum of a win from Leicester, Burnley or Palace but ideally 4 points. Big ask

The big ask is Stoke, Palace, Southampton getting 6 or 7 points over the next 8 games just to get level with us. If it's a 'big ask' for us to get 3 or 4 points from 8, it is a gigantic task for them to double that.

 

[Bold Seagull]

target should be 40 points. aiming for anything less leaves no room for error. we should be looking to get something out of the big games, by being bit more assertive, not just hoping to keep down the score.

Well of course you don't aim for less.