Aspinal's Body Double
Member
OK-I know it won't happen exactly like this, but this seems a logical starting point-and I haven't tried to fix this in our favour, I tried to pick best statistical model and was pleasantly surprised by results.
So, on the results so far this season, we have gained an average 1.56 points per game at home, 1.40 points per game away. So looking at our remaining fixtures I've predicted we lose at Middlesborough because their home average (2.13) is better than our away average (1.40). However, I predict a win at Bristol City because our away form (1.4) is better than their home form (1.25). Do this for all remaining fixtures for everyone (where pts average is same to 1 decimal place, call it a draw) and this is what I got.
Pos Team Pts
1 Cardiff 102
2 Hull City 94
3 Watford 90
4 Leicester 83
5 Crystal Palace 83
6 Brighton 76
7 Middlesbrough 73
8 Blackburn 68
9 Derby 66
10 Leeds 66
11 Burnley 65
12 Nott'm Forest 65
13 Charlton 64
14 Blackpool 63
15 Millwall 63
16 Bolton 59
17 Birmingham 59
18 Huddersfield 52
19 Bristol City 49
20 Sheffield Wed 45
21 Wolves 44
22 Ipswich 44
23 Barnsley 42
24 Peterborough 32
There are some obvious shortcomings-football games don't always go to form, past performance this season may not be replicated on run-in, teams at top of table get more points than is probable and vice versa those at bottom, current form/recent signings et.c. not taken into account, teams might look better than they are if their fixtures to date have been against weaker teams et.c.
Any thoughts?
So, on the results so far this season, we have gained an average 1.56 points per game at home, 1.40 points per game away. So looking at our remaining fixtures I've predicted we lose at Middlesborough because their home average (2.13) is better than our away average (1.40). However, I predict a win at Bristol City because our away form (1.4) is better than their home form (1.25). Do this for all remaining fixtures for everyone (where pts average is same to 1 decimal place, call it a draw) and this is what I got.
Pos Team Pts
1 Cardiff 102
2 Hull City 94
3 Watford 90
4 Leicester 83
5 Crystal Palace 83
6 Brighton 76
7 Middlesbrough 73
8 Blackburn 68
9 Derby 66
10 Leeds 66
11 Burnley 65
12 Nott'm Forest 65
13 Charlton 64
14 Blackpool 63
15 Millwall 63
16 Bolton 59
17 Birmingham 59
18 Huddersfield 52
19 Bristol City 49
20 Sheffield Wed 45
21 Wolves 44
22 Ipswich 44
23 Barnsley 42
24 Peterborough 32
There are some obvious shortcomings-football games don't always go to form, past performance this season may not be replicated on run-in, teams at top of table get more points than is probable and vice versa those at bottom, current form/recent signings et.c. not taken into account, teams might look better than they are if their fixtures to date have been against weaker teams et.c.
Any thoughts?
