House prices to crash

[Mr Burns]

Bloody hell, is this thread still going!!!

Have house prices crashed yet?

Is it impossible to get a mortgage yet?

 

[The Antikythera Mechanism]

Fears grow as autumn house sales flatline

Fears of a second crisis for housebuilders were growing this week after sales data showed that the hoped-for autumn recovery had failed to materialise.

Building understands that confidential weekly sales figures collected by the Home Builders Federation (HBF) from its members show that transactions in September are only marginally above where they were in the same month in 2008, when the credit crunch was at its worst.

The news comes as the NHBC recorded its lowest level of daily sales since records began in 1998.

Industry figures said the low level of sales reflected nervousness on the part of buyers and their banks over the economic outlook.


One director at a large housebuilder said: “Sales just haven’t come back at all - there’s been nothing. I’ve talked to all our competitors - Bellway, Taylor Wimpey - they’re all saying the same thing.

“A housebuilder confirmed the HBF figures show that the rate of sales in September has fluctuated between 0.35 and 0.38 per active site per week, compared with 0.7 in the boom. This is the same level as recorded since July, and only slightly above the sales per site recorded in September 2008. It is down sharply on the figures recorded in September last year.

Roger Humber, strategic policy director of the House Builders Association, said: “All the information shows the situation is really bad and it’s getting worse. It’s quite clear the seasonal upturn has simply not happened.

“Sales figures for listed housebuilders have weakened since the start of the year, but so far most have blamed this on the usual summer slowdown in sales.

August data from the NHBC showed that home starts fell from 10,638 in July to 9,954; daily sales fell to 242, the lowest figure since the start of the credit crunch. Housing data firm Hometrack said prices fell 0.4% in the month.

An analysis carried out by the Financial Services Authority showed that house prices could fall “significantly” if proposed changes to mortgage regulations were carried out.

However, the HBF weekly data is the only information on the autumn selling season.

The HBF declined to comment on the figures, but said: “Mortgage availability is still an issue and there’s concern about spending cuts. There’s no question about the long-term demand for homes, however.”


From Building.co.uk

Looks like Uncle C could be on the right track after all

 

[Uncle C]

Looks like Uncle C could be on the right track after all

There is yet another reason to believe house prices are set a drop.

Baby boomers now reaching retirement have relatively poor pensions and have always seen their properties as additional funds. How many people have you heard say that their house is their pension?

So, many thousands will be looking to sell up and downsize.

These figures bely the theory of a property shortage in the UK. They reveal a massive spare capacity of living accommodation in that 47% of existing owner occupied houses are under occupied - a massive 6.8 million houses.

By contrast the rental market only has 18% under occupied

http://www.investmentandbusinessnews.co.uk/house-prices/housing-undersupply-myth-house-price-crash-bring-families-closer/

 

[Uncle C]

"The gloomy outlook for the construction industry was reinforced today by figures showing that housebuilding activity slumped for the first time in more than a year. Orders for building firms fell in September for the fourth straight month as the recovery in demand which has seen a brief recovery in the industry's fortunes went into reverse."

http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2010/oct/04/housebuilding-slumps-after-year-recovery

 

[Tim Over Whelmed]

There is no crash about to happen other than the usual scaremongering ...

You sound like an Estate Agent

There is no crash about to happen; unless you class a crash as a 5% drop or a massive hike as a 5% increase. Prices will always fluctuate and crashes will, at some point, happen, but not now.

No not an Estate Agent, a realist with no interest in property other than owning my own home which I'm not selling, renting or borrowing against.

 

[Uncle C]

There is no crash about to happen; unless you class a crash as a 5% drop or a massive hike as a 5% increase. Prices will always fluctuate and crashes will, at some point, happen, but not now.

So did you read this in the tea leaves, or do you have some supportive evidence to share?

 

[redneb]

"The gloomy outlook for the construction industry was reinforced today by figures showing that housebuilding activity slumped for the first time in more than a year. Orders for building firms fell in September for the fourth straight month as the recovery in demand which has seen a brief recovery in the industry's fortunes went into reverse."

http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2010/oct/04/housebuilding-slumps-after-year-recovery

first time in more than a year - meaning the previous 12 months had shown a rise followed by a 1 month drop.

 

[Uncle C]

first time in more than a year - meaning the previous 12 months had shown a rise followed by a 1 month drop.

Well do you think the upcoming cuts in the public sector (schools, hospitals, prisons etc etc) are going to help things?

 

[Caveman]

A drop maybe, but a crash?

People will always die, families will expand and need to move on, whilst others will want to retire and down size. Then, there are first time buyers who will want to get on the ladder (I know this is very difficult, but they should be saving for this to happen and they are out there).

Negativity doesn't help, if you aren't prepared to take a gamble in life, then you will never get anywhere.

 

[CAPTAIN GREALISH]

work in construction work has dried up the way things are going charlton will be my last game HOPE NOT?

 

[Uncle C]

A drop maybe, but a crash?

People will always die, families will expand and need to move on, whilst others will want to retire and down size. Then, there are first time buyers who will want to get on the ladder (I know this is very difficult, but they should be saving for this to happen and they are out there).

Negativity doesn't help, if you aren't prepared to take a gamble in life, then you will never get anywhere.

Its difficult to define the word 'crash'. The press seem to see it as anything in double digits, but for me its anything above 20%

The reduction in 2008 took the market, in general, down by between 20 and 25% of its peak in 2007. It since recovered during late 2009 and early 1010 to remain today between 5 and 10% down on its 2007 peak. Some areas like central London where there is a lot of foreign money did better than this.

So that early drop of say 25% took house prices back to where they had been in about 2004. In America reductions in some States have taken prices back to their levels in 1998.

If petrol prices were predicted to drop this would not be seen as negative, so why is discussing a drop in house prices seen as negative? Its just conditioning.

Incidentally 2 out of these 3 examples you quote here would lead to an excess of accommodation and assist in a decline in prices.

"People will always die, families will expand and need to move on, whilst others will want to retire and down size."

 

[eastlondonseagull]

House prices are down month on month in SE18 - by £300. FFS

.

 

[Uncle C]

House prices are down month on month in SE18 - by £300. FFS

.

Patience is a virtue.

 

[Albumen]

If there's a way of making me more broke I'm sure the Tories will find it.
*expects crash*

 

[Uncle Spielberg]

"The gloomy outlook for the construction industry was reinforced today by figures showing that housebuilding activity slumped for the first time in more than a year. Orders for building firms fell in September for the fourth straight month as the recovery in demand which has seen a brief recovery in the industry's fortunes went into reverse."

http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2010/oct/04/housebuilding-slumps-after-year-recovery

You are a barrel of laughs. We need people to TALK UP the economy not revel in every bit of bad news. . These types of people will create a self fulfilling prophecy if they spread their doom and gloom.

 

[Caveman]

Incidentally 2 out of these 3 examples you quote here would lead to an excess of accommodation and assist in a decline in prices.

"People will always die, families will expand and need to move on, whilst others will want to retire and down size."

If people are down sizing and others moving into bigger properties aren't they basically swapping houses, ok not literally, but you know what I mean. So this would be classed as two sales surely?

For people dieing, isn't this opening up run down properties for the bottom of the ladder?

I guess you can view it both ways?

 

[Norman Potting]

You are a barrel of laughs. We need people to TALK UP the economy not revel in every bit of bad news. . These types of people will create a self fulfilling prophecy if they spread their doom and gloom.

Lots of house building work in progress in Crowborough, some nearly finished some just beginning, some still in planning. Would guestimate around 150 - 200 houses involved on various sites. Whether or not anyone will buy them is another thing but presumably those sinking the money into the schemes must think so.

 

[The Modfather]

Surely we are just seeing a correction in what was an over priced market.

Property prices here in Brighton have hardly reduced at all.

 

[hitony]

Lots of house building work in progress in Crowborough, some nearly finished some just beginning, some still in planning. Would guestimate around 150 - 200 houses involved on various sites. Whether or not anyone will buy them is another thing but presumably those sinking the money into the schemes must think so.

What is the Developer/s name? in my experience anyone who has tried to build through a recession/ bad times has caught a bad cold, and in this economic climate, they will go bust, unless they have someone with a vast amount of money to fund them.

 

[Tom Hark Preston Park]

House prices are down month on month in SE18 - by £300. FFS

.

Still take a couple of decades before they become 'affordable' tho eh?