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House prices to crash



Uncle Spielberg

Well-known member
NSC Patron
Jul 6, 2003
42,898
Lancing
Industry experts claim the number of mortgage brokers has now fallen to around 10,000.

Speaking at a recent Mortgage Strategy and Abbey for Intermediaries round table, Ben Thompson, head of mortgages at Legal & General, says the accepted figure of 12,000 is probably too high.

He says he knows of a lender that has dealt with just over 10,000 brokers in the last 12 months.

The Association of Mortgage Intermediaries’ figures show there were between 30,000 and 32,000 brokers at the peak of the market and 12,000 three months ago.

But Jonathan Cornell, head of communications at First Action Finance, says: “I think the total number of mortgage brokers is now less than 10,000.”

Robert Sinclair, director of AMI, says the current figures are the ones he works around.

He adds: “Whether we drop below the magic 10,000 number is not known. But we continue to see people leaving the industry and the number of brokers continues to decline.”

Thompson adds: “You don’t want the number of brokers to fall too far because the top five or six lenders are saying that in two years’ time the mortgage market will be back to a degree.”

The Council of Mortgage Lenders last week gave a gloomy warning that the Mortgage Market Review is fatally flawed and could cause negative net lending for years to come.

Net lending is currently less than £10bn compared with over £100bn in 2007.

Speaking at the CML’s Future Housing Conference last week, Michael Coogan, director-general of the CML, cautioned that it was vital that the MMR was re-evaluated now.

He says: “The risk of negative net lending is real as we enter 2011 because of funding issues, but if the un-spoken aim is to shrink mortgage debt, this could become the norm.”

Coogan adds that more needs to be done to slow down the Financial Services Authority’s steamroller and that the trade body is planning to release its own research assessing the impact of the MMR on consumers.

He says that the unintended consequences of new mortgage regulation are likely to stifle innovation and opportunity.
 




Uncle Spielberg

Well-known member
NSC Patron
Jul 6, 2003
42,898
Lancing
Simon Jones, director at Savills Private Finance, has quit the brokerage to train as a diving instructor in Indonesia.

Jones joined Savills Private Finance in 1999 and has been with the brokerage for over 11 years, having previously worked as a mortgage broker for four years at John Charcol.

Jones is training at the Blue Season Bali Diving centre in Indonesia.
 


Uncle C

Well-known member
Jul 6, 2004
11,690
Bishops Stortford
the 3 x earnings mantra bears so relevance. It should be based on affordability and ability to pay and 3 x income with rates historically low bears no relation or logic to 3 x income when rates were 15%. The future will be based more on income and expenditure rather than an income multiple plucked out of the air for no good reason.

I think the key here is that interest rates can only go up from here.

A comfortable mortgage at 1 or 2% becomes a milestone at 6 or 7%.

In Nov 1979 bank base rate hit 17%. That would bring tears to the eyes of anyone holding a variable rate mortgage and it could be argued that the financial situation in this country is many times worse than in 1979.

And no I'm not being pessimistic, just not burying my head in the sand like many others.
 


Arthritic Toe

Well-known member
Nov 25, 2005
2,411
Swindon
It's irrelevant who was in power, no party would have interfered with the lending decisions made by the finance sector.

Its called regulation. Would the other parties also have failed to regulate? -probably. That doesn't absolve the previous government of the blame. The financial service commission (created by Brown) fiddled while Rome burned.
 


Uncle C

Well-known member
Jul 6, 2004
11,690
Bishops Stortford




Shropshire Seagull

Well-known member
Nov 5, 2004
8,571
Telford
Houses are a comodity to which the basic laws of economics will still apply.
In simple terms it comes down to supply and demand [I know most of you will already know this].

The UK housing market [availability] in acknowledged to be in short supply.
The UK propensity for home ownership continues to remain high.

All the time there is a demand for something in limited supply, the price will be controlled and will be higher based on the change in supply and the change in demand.

Just because mortgages are harder to come by, doesn't change the individuals desire to be a home owner - only when the ownership attitude changes will the prices of housing likely to reduce.

To correct and earlier post - all the BTL mortgages I've had [there's been a few] never took in to account my earnings. All they were ever interested in was the rent-ability to loan ratio [usually 125% necessary] to confirm the rent would cover the mortgage payments. The rentable value formed part of the survey.

My view - no housing crash will occur until a change in home ownership culture changes first - this will not happen in my lifetime.

Final comment - when you give up work at retirement - if you don't own your home, how will you be able to afford to rent it? This is what drives the insatiable demand for home ownership in the UK.
 


jakarta

Well-known member
May 25, 2007
15,653
Sullington
Houses are a comodity to which the basic laws of economics will still apply.
In simple terms it comes down to supply and demand [I know most of you will already know this].

The UK housing market [availability] in acknowledged to be in short supply.
The UK propensity for home ownership continues to remain high.

All the time there is a demand for something in limited supply, the price will be controlled and will be higher based on the change in supply and the change in demand.

Just because mortgages are harder to come by, doesn't change the individuals desire to be a home owner - only when the ownership attitude changes will the prices of housing likely to reduce.

To correct and earlier post - all the BTL mortgages I've had [there's been a few] never took in to account my earnings. All they were ever interested in was the rent-ability to loan ratio [usually 125% necessary] to confirm the rent would cover the mortgage payments. The rentable value formed part of the survey.

My view - no housing crash will occur until a change in home ownership culture changes first - this will not happen in my lifetime.

Final comment - when you give up work at retirement - if you don't own your home, how will you be able to afford to rent it? This is what drives the insatiable demand for home ownership in the UK.

Agree with most of the above. I posted about a million pages ago about how the UK has a growing population (touted to be 70 million plus in 20 years time) and that we don't build many dwellings especially in the places where people want to live i.e the South-East of England.

Surely these are the two basic reasons why there cannot be a 'crash' in house prices unless there is a massive depression with 6 -7 million unemployed.

A slow but sure decline in prices over the next few years while we are collectively in the financial shit, which is known as deflation, I can understand.

Can someone who knows more about me about the housing market (Uncle S/Uncle C?) explain why there will not be massive pressure on house prices to move upwards in the long term, unless we address either or both of the two factors mentioned?
 


Uncle Spielberg

Well-known member
NSC Patron
Jul 6, 2003
42,898
Lancing
Houses are a comodity to which the basic laws of economics will still apply.
In simple terms it comes down to supply and demand [I know most of you will already know this].

The UK housing market [availability] in acknowledged to be in short supply.
The UK propensity for home ownership continues to remain high.

All the time there is a demand for something in limited supply, the price will be controlled and will be higher based on the change in supply and the change in demand.

Just because mortgages are harder to come by, doesn't change the individuals desire to be a home owner - only when the ownership attitude changes will the prices of housing likely to reduce.

To correct and earlier post - all the BTL mortgages I've had [there's been a few] never took in to account my earnings. All they were ever interested in was the rent-ability to loan ratio [usually 125% necessary] to confirm the rent would cover the mortgage payments. The rentable value formed part of the survey.

My view - no housing crash will occur until a change in home ownership culture changes first - this will not happen in my lifetime.

Final comment - when you give up work at retirement - if you don't own your home, how will you be able to afford to rent it? This is what drives the insatiable demand for home ownership in the UK.

There is only 1 btl lender who will now lend without a requirement for a personal income level, The Mortgage Works. They apply a rental income calculation like all other lenders. All other lenders require income proof now and a minimum personal income of £ 25k pa usually.
 




rool

Well-known member
Jul 10, 2003
6,031
Last week had a mortgage agreed on a new build, however this has all fallen through as the lender valued the property 25k under the asking price and the developers won't budge.

Bummer
 


LA1972

New member
May 20, 2009
638
West Sussex
I don't think this is a doomsday scenario. House prices have dropped before by about 25% in the UK and I don't remember anyone dying.

We all need a big dose of reality and to view houses as places to live in and not as assets that drive up in value faster than inflation.

Home owners have become speculators, wooed by TV makeover programs, and everyone else with a vested interest such as Estate Agents have helped themselves to a bit of the action.

If a few fingers are burn whilst house prices return to normality (mortgages no more than 3 times average wages) that's a hard lesson but one that has to be learned.

If people want to speculate then buy shares, gold, baked beans or rare paintings and leave houses alone.

Just my opinion like.

Hmmmm not a home owner then Uncle C? Right old bundle of joy:tantrum:
just my opinion like.
 


Uncle C

Well-known member
Jul 6, 2004
11,690
Bishops Stortford
Hmmmm not a home owner then Uncle C? Right old bundle of joy:tantrum:
just my opinion like.

Yep I am, and why does everyone think I am miserable just because I post this stuff.
 
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Uncle C

Well-known member
Jul 6, 2004
11,690
Bishops Stortford
Houses are a comodity to which the basic laws of economics will still apply.
In simple terms it comes down to supply and demand [I know most of you will already know this].

The UK housing market [availability] in acknowledged to be in short supply.
The UK propensity for home ownership continues to remain high.

All the time there is a demand for something in limited supply, the price will be controlled and will be higher based on the change in supply and the change in demand.

Absolutely true, thats why we had the rises during 2009. Experts now agree that this was due to a shortage of properties for sale. It has also been well documented here that this shortage has now been reduced considerably.

Just because mortgages are harder to come by, doesn't change the individuals desire to be a home owner - only when the ownership attitude changes will the prices of housing likely to reduce.

Everyone has the desire to own a Farrarri but if you cant afford it then the factual demand becomes low.

My view - no housing crash will occur until a change in home ownership culture changes first - this will not happen in my lifetime.

So if you look at graphs of UK house prices (corrected for inflation) then the price drops occuring in mid 70's, early 80's, end of 90's and 2008 are all figments of the imagination. Even if you dont like inflation adjusted prices are you still in denial over the price drop of up to 25% in 2008.
http://www.whatprice.co.uk/financial/housing-market/house-prices.html

Looks like you're still stuck in the denial phase whilst the market has moved on through return to "normal"

bubble-lifecycle.gif
 


burrish-gull

Active member
Mar 24, 2009
813
End of thread :bowdown:

Houses are a comodity to which the basic laws of economics will still apply.
In simple terms it comes down to supply and demand [I know most of you will already know this].

The UK housing market [availability] in acknowledged to be in short supply.
The UK propensity for home ownership continues to remain high.

All the time there is a demand for something in limited supply, the price will be controlled and will be higher based on the change in supply and the change in demand.

Just because mortgages are harder to come by, doesn't change the individuals desire to be a home owner - only when the ownership attitude changes will the prices of housing likely to reduce.

To correct and earlier post - all the BTL mortgages I've had [there's been a few] never took in to account my earnings. All they were ever interested in was the rent-ability to loan ratio [usually 125% necessary] to confirm the rent would cover the mortgage payments. The rentable value formed part of the survey.

My view - no housing crash will occur until a change in home ownership culture changes first - this will not happen in my lifetime.

Final comment - when you give up work at retirement - if you don't own your home, how will you be able to afford to rent it? This is what drives the insatiable demand for home ownership in the UK.
 


Uncle C

Well-known member
Jul 6, 2004
11,690
Bishops Stortford
End of thread :bowdown:

I would join your mate in the denial phase. Its quite comforting with your head in the sand. Dont you think the same demand for housing existed in the USA and their housing market is f***ed, even with current low interest rates.

Thread continues till I am proved wrong and then everyone can call me a twat.

Till then no discussions have been won or lost. This is just a debate at present.
 
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Arthritic Toe

Well-known member
Nov 25, 2005
2,411
Swindon
Houses are a comodity to which the basic laws of economics will still apply.
In simple terms it comes down to supply and demand [I know most of you will already know this].

The UK housing market [availability] in acknowledged to be in short supply.
The UK propensity for home ownership continues to remain high.

Just to pick up on this one point....

This "short supply" argument is often stated, rarely challenged and often taken as read. However it is largely a myth (while accepting that this varies between areas).

It was used by estate agents, lenders, Kirsty, Phil and everybody during the boom years to explain why house prices would always continue to rise and never again fall. It was often quoted that there were 10 potential buyers for each house on the market. On closer analysis though, there were 9 BTL investors and just 1 'real' buyer fighting for each property.

The government fell for it too, setting massive building targets (which haven't materialised since the credit crunch).

The number of properties for sale now outweighs the number of buyers, however for some reason, the 'shortage of supply' myth has persisted. There is absolutely no hard evidence to support it. Yes, the population of the UK has increased, but the number of new houses built has kept pace with that (and in some areas exceeded it).
 


Uncle C

Well-known member
Jul 6, 2004
11,690
Bishops Stortford
Just to pick up on this one point....

This "short supply" argument is often stated, rarely challenged and often taken as read. However it is largely a myth (while accepting that this varies between areas).

It was used by estate agents, lenders, Kirsty, Phil and everybody during the boom years to explain why house prices would always continue to rise and never again fall. It was often quoted that there were 10 potential buyers for each house on the market. On closer analysis though, there were 9 BTL investors and just 1 'real' buyer fighting for each property.

The government fell for it too, setting massive building targets (which haven't materialised since the credit crunch).

The number of properties for sale now outweighs the number of buyers, however for some reason, the 'shortage of supply' myth has persisted. There is absolutely no hard evidence to support it. Yes, the population of the UK has increased, but the number of new houses built has kept pace with that (and in some areas exceeded it).

Thanks for that.:thumbsup:
 


Westdene Seagull

aka Cap'n Carl Firecrotch
NSC Patron
Oct 27, 2003
21,190
The arse end of Hangleton
J

The number of properties for sale now outweighs the number of buyers, however for some reason, the 'shortage of supply' myth has persisted. There is absolutely no hard evidence to support it.

And the hard evidence to show the number of properties for sale outweighs the number of buyers is where exactly ?
 


Uncle C

Well-known member
Jul 6, 2004
11,690
Bishops Stortford
And the hard evidence to show the number of properties for sale outweighs the number of buyers is where exactly ?

I think it lies in the fact that across the Estate Agents in the UK there are always properties for sale. That for me says there are more houses than buyers. When did you last see a queue outside an Estate Agent waiting for a house to come in?
 






Don Quixote

Well-known member
Nov 4, 2008
8,357
Of course it will crash, what happens when interest rates go up? They have to go up soon, we are going to have a lot of inflation. People always say "it will never crash" but they are always wrong.
 


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