House prices to crash

[Uncle C]

No...(IMHO).....amateurs, have no place in spouting forecasts in this most difficult and important area.

So the Professionals have done a better job over the last 2 decades?

Any professional involved in the housing market including estate agents, banks, brokers, house builders etc has a vested interest in talking up the market. If anyone is gullible enough to believe them, thats not my problem.

 

[beorhthelm]

The lack of supply is gradually being corrected ever since the abolision of the House Information Pack.

how do you make that out? cant see HIPs maked a blind bit of difference other than alot of bleating. anyone who cant afford £400 for one cant really afford to move. the only problem with HIPs was they didnt enforce the banks to accept them, thus removing/reducing/transfering the costs of alot of the conveyancing.

 

[Uncle C]

how do you make that out? cant see HIPs maked a blind bit of difference other than alot of bleating. anyone who cant afford £400 for one cant really afford to move. the only problem with HIPs was they didnt enforce the banks to accept them, thus removing/reducing/transfering the costs of alot of the conveyancing.

Just have a look at the stats. Hips were viewed as an obstacle to marketting ones property, more metal than financial.

Once HIPs were abolished loads of people tested the selling market and nunbers of houses for sale increased markedly.

Some of you are convinced I'm talking out my arse so I thought I better include at least one reference
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/10310870

 

[beorhthelm]

Just have a look at the stats. Hips were viewed as an obstacle to marketting ones property, more metal than financial.

certinaly agree its more mental. but where are the stats? have the reports of increased instructions been carried through past the first month of no HIPs? how many of those are instructions that were held back in the previous few months anticipating the HIPs going? or in otherwords, whats the quater to quater, half to half comaprions?

you should re-read your reference, its speculation and doesnt qualitfy the "sharp increase" of instructions to sell with any actual numbers.

 

[Uncle C]

certinaly agree its more mental. but where are the stats?

Sorry, but I dont hold references to everything, so you could always Google like I did.

With information, I read, enjoy, assimilate and move on.

Next time I come across a factual article I will post here.

 

[Uncle C]

OK have stumbled across some data you can study

http://www.housepricecrash.co.uk/graphs-rics.php

What do I get from this.

% of surveyors reporting a rise in house prices

Very small numbers in late 07 and 08 (first price drop). Picking up in 09 and early 10 (Bull trap) and decreasing again to date.

Average stock of houses per surveyor

High levels of stock in 08 as houses refused to sell after price drop, and loss of confidence, peaking at 91.7 in Feb 08.

A gradual decline in stock levels thereafter to 58.4% in May 09 resulting in a high demand and low supply = price rises in Bull trap.

Stock levels increased thereafter and still rising at July 10 = a reversal of supply and demand and pointing to a decline in future prices.

 

[beorhthelm]

its a little sad that someone has taken the time to create a site dedicated to house prices crashing. its as if they willing it to happen.

what i thought was most interesting is the graph on the front page that shows historic price with trned line. this has a 2.9% annual increase apparently. im pretty sure thats below inflation over the time, and shows current post peak prices are about right. of course, a pessimist could point that we are due a further fall into negative teritory. graphs, like stats, can be read to tell the story you want to hear.

 

[pintsawhiskey]

There is only ONE reason why houses do not sell. They are too expensive.

If every house was marketted at at a price of 1 penny then 100% of them would sell. So the real value of any house is not what the Estate Agent says, not what the homeowner thinks, but it is somewhere between 1 penny and the price it refuses to sell at.

Get that right, and every house will sell.

Bang on, things are worth what people want to pay, not what an estate agent says.

put a property in a auction, what ever it gets bid/ sold for thats its WORTH, they are buying it!!!!

 

[Uncle C]

its a little sad that someone has taken the time to create a site dedicated to house prices crashing. its as if they willing it to happen. There are a lot of first time buyers and divorced singles etc looking for house prices to become more realistic. This site only serves as a balanced to all the Media hype about house price rises.
what i thought was most interesting is the graph on the front page that shows historic price with trned line. this has a 2.9% annual increase apparently. im pretty sure thats below inflation over the time, and shows current post peak prices are about right. I would sooner look at the afforability table which shows houses far too expensive compared to peoples wages - now that cant lie of course, a pessimist could point that we are due a further fall into negative teritory. graphs, like stats, can be read to tell the story you want to hear.

..............

 

[beorhthelm]

... pointless circular arguement avoided. time will tell.

 

[Uncle C]

... pointless circular arguement avoided. time will tell.

Average wages are barely rising if at all, there is escalating inflation on food and commodities, job uncertainties exist particularly in the public sector, interest rates are only able to go up-wards, taxes are going up, worker unrest is about to kick off and Brighton have so far failed to sign a striker.

You don't need the gambling prowess of US to guess which way this graph is going.

 

[seagullsovergrimsby]

its a little sad that someone has taken the time to create a site dedicated to house prices crashing. its as if they willing it to happen.

what i thought was most interesting is the graph on the front page that shows historic price with trned line. this has a 2.9% annual increase apparently. im pretty sure thats below inflation over the time, and shows current post peak prices are about right. of course, a pessimist could point that we are due a further fall into negative teritory. graphs, like stats, can be read to tell the story you want to hear.

Investors with spare cash want the market to crash so they can wade in and hoover up property at rock bottom prices. First time buyers wont get a look in if this did happen as cash is king.

 

[Giraffe]

Investors with spare cash want the market to crash so they can wade in and hoover up property at rock bottom prices. First time buyers wont get a look in if this did happen as cash is king.

Exactly this, which is the reason that at the bottom level there is no chance of a serious reallignment in the house prices. As soon as they go 10% lower investors and first time buyers will be competing with investors winning most of the time and this will hold the prices up.

Higher up the property spectrum I would expect a higher proportionate adjustment though, maybe 20%.

 

[Uncle C]

As soon as they go 10% lower investors and first time buyers will be competing with investors winning most of the time and this will hold the prices up.

But just 2 years ago the market crashed way more than your 10% figure.

Also in America and even Ireland prices have dropped about 40%. Dont you think they have investors there.

 

[cjd]

Could anyone be kind enough to copy and paste the thread....."O/T-house valuation" started by Uncle C on 24-10-2010.

It gives the impression that his knowledge of the housing market is less than "expert".

Post 33 was very interesting.

 

[Uncle C]

Could anyone be kind enough to copy and paste the thread....."O/T-house valuation" started by Uncle C on 24-10-2010.

It gives the impression that his knowledge of the housing market is less than "expert".

Post 33 was very interesting.

Since when did I claim to be an expert?

Anyway here is the link
http://www.northstandchat.com/showthread.php?t=169579&page=2&highlight=house+valuation
What exactly is your problem here?

 

[cjd]

Since when did I claim to be an expert?

Anyway here is the link
http://www.northstandchat.com/showthread.php?t=169579&page=2&highlight=house+valuation
What exactly is your problem here?

When people start threads with sensational title threads like yours, I like to occaisionally enquire as to the posters credibilty.

I,m satisfied now that your credibilty is poor on this subject.

 

[Uncle C]

When people start threads with sensational title threads like yours, I like to occaisionally enquire as to the posters credibilty.

I,m satisfied now that your credibilty is poor on this subject.

And post 33 that you quoted specifically?

 

[1066gull]

I was looking at prices for one bedroom houses / flats. currently around 90k, if this actually does happen i may be able to afford to buy in 18months if the price drops to around 50k meaning i could rent it out

 

[Cheeky Monkey]

In StLoS you can buy decent flats for 60k. The life of riley 1066...Mavis Riley.