Hats off to the Ferret

[El Presidente]

Tipped England to miss a penalty at 22-1.

I took his advice with £10 and 'back of the net'

 

[the right footed denilson]

absolutely superb- the guy knows his stuff!!

 

[Wozza]

How could anyone know a penalty would be missed? It's just a guess!

 

[El Presidente]

He has secret powers!

 

[Mustela Furo]

How could anyone know a penalty would be missed? It's just a guess!

Nobody can know that.

However it is all about knowing the probability of a penalty being awarded and, if that happens then the probability of it being missed.

You have to wrigh up factors such as referee, crowd, pressure and the penalty-kick taker.

Ultimately you can reach an opinion of what the true odds are.

If the odds on offer are greated than your opinion of the true odds then you are getting value

Successful punting is all about finding value - betting on odds that are greater than they should be.

For instance, It may not have been likely that England would be awarded and miss a penalty, but those odds should have been less than 22/1.


In theory - if you are disciplined enough to only bet on odds that are overpriced, then long-term you cannot lose.

Trouble is, most of us like too many punts - including 'gut feel' bets when there is no value there - therefore most punters lose, and most bookmakers drive Mercedes and smoke Havanas

 

[marvin]

So you're the bastaed that tripped him up!

 

[Theatre of Trees]

Tipped England to miss a penalty at 22-1.

I took his advice with £10 and 'back of the net'

I think 'back of the stadium' would be more appropriate

 

[Citrus]

 

[Sam]

i didnt take his advice, so its not back of the net or stadium for me

 

[NMH]

Ferret cheated.

 

[Icy Gull]

That is one random bet, wish I'd made it. Must be a strange sensation as an England fan, to hope we miss a penalty in a game as tight as yesterdays.

 

[El Presidente]

Having seen Beckham train with Jonny Wilkinson on the adidas adverts, it was only ever going over the posts