Interesting article from the Times regarding how important LUCK can be in Tournaments:...
More than any other sport, football is routinely decided by matters beyond a competitor's control. So while we get force-fed 44 years of hurt all that, it is worth remembering that we are not as bad as our luck would have us believe. Take Italia 90 when Chris Waddle beat Bodo Ilgner in the German goal in extra time only for the ball to hit the post and bounce away to safety. Had that bounced in then England would have gone to the World Cup Final and we would now view ourselves very differently.
When England next made a World Cup in 1998, they went out to Argentina because the referee controversially disallowed a Sol Campbell goal. At Euro 2004, Campbell scored again. This time the referee adjudged John Terry to have fouled the Portuguese goalkeeper. The same goalkeeper who then scored the winning penalty in the shootout to take Portugal to the semis.
It goes back further. Just how did the referee fail to spot Diego Maradona's decisive handball in the 1986 quarter-finals? How did in-pomp Gary Lineker then fail to connect with a header from two yards out and, thus, send that game to extra-time. "Yeeesss!" Barry Davies cried on the commentary. "Nooo!," he quickly added, neatly summarising the yin and yang of England football.
There has been good luck, too, notably in the 1966 final and then, 30 years later, when England were gifted a win, on penalties, over Spain in the Euro 96 quarter-finals. That was all about Stuart Pearce's catharsis, Three Lions, 30 years of hurt. We quickly forgot Spain's two goals disallowed and two ignored penalty appeals.
The World Cup will, in all probability, be decided by luck. All you really need to be in with a shout is a decent bunch of players in an organised system (and preferably a good defence). Greece in 2004 and Italy in 2006 could scarcely claim to have been the best teams at those years' tournaments, but they still became European and world champions.
Indeed, ten-men Italy needed a very suspect last-minute penalty against Australia to progress from the second round in 2006. The man who was tripped/dived, Fabio Grosso, would score the winning penalty in the final. Funny old game.
Malcolm Gladwell, in his book Outliers, suggests luck and hard work can produce genius. It is a scientific thesis based on the old Gary Player maxim that the harder you practice, the luckier you get. But do these things even themselves out over a season? Do you make your own luck?
Liverpool's triumph in the 2005 Champions League Final was a fantastic story and a tribute to Steven Gerrard's inspirational qualities. However, the bottom line is Liverpool were in the final because they beat Chelsea with a goal that clearly did not cross the line. And many referees would not have awarded Gerrard a penalty when he tumbled dramatically during the revival in Instanbul. Xabi Alonso missed that penalty but the ball bounced back off the keeper to him. That may be construed as making your own luck by being in the right position, but Liverpool had nothing to do with Shevchenko missing from five yards.
In the seven World Cup Finals England have played in since 1966 they have never gone out by more than a single goal. In 1982 they were unbeaten. In 1990, 1998 and 2006 they went out on penalties. Of the rest Sir Alf Ramsey made a bad substitution, Maradona cheated and Ronaldinho scored a freak-cum-wonder goal.
The margin between success and failure is clearly very small when you are one of the best eight sides in the world, as England routinely are, and so it stands to reason that the role of luck will be amplified. So forget the debates about Walcott and Lennon and 4-5-1, the question Fabio Capello needs to ask himself is does he feel lucky. Well, do you?
More than any other sport, football is routinely decided by matters beyond a competitor's control. So while we get force-fed 44 years of hurt all that, it is worth remembering that we are not as bad as our luck would have us believe. Take Italia 90 when Chris Waddle beat Bodo Ilgner in the German goal in extra time only for the ball to hit the post and bounce away to safety. Had that bounced in then England would have gone to the World Cup Final and we would now view ourselves very differently.
When England next made a World Cup in 1998, they went out to Argentina because the referee controversially disallowed a Sol Campbell goal. At Euro 2004, Campbell scored again. This time the referee adjudged John Terry to have fouled the Portuguese goalkeeper. The same goalkeeper who then scored the winning penalty in the shootout to take Portugal to the semis.
It goes back further. Just how did the referee fail to spot Diego Maradona's decisive handball in the 1986 quarter-finals? How did in-pomp Gary Lineker then fail to connect with a header from two yards out and, thus, send that game to extra-time. "Yeeesss!" Barry Davies cried on the commentary. "Nooo!," he quickly added, neatly summarising the yin and yang of England football.
There has been good luck, too, notably in the 1966 final and then, 30 years later, when England were gifted a win, on penalties, over Spain in the Euro 96 quarter-finals. That was all about Stuart Pearce's catharsis, Three Lions, 30 years of hurt. We quickly forgot Spain's two goals disallowed and two ignored penalty appeals.
The World Cup will, in all probability, be decided by luck. All you really need to be in with a shout is a decent bunch of players in an organised system (and preferably a good defence). Greece in 2004 and Italy in 2006 could scarcely claim to have been the best teams at those years' tournaments, but they still became European and world champions.
Indeed, ten-men Italy needed a very suspect last-minute penalty against Australia to progress from the second round in 2006. The man who was tripped/dived, Fabio Grosso, would score the winning penalty in the final. Funny old game.
Malcolm Gladwell, in his book Outliers, suggests luck and hard work can produce genius. It is a scientific thesis based on the old Gary Player maxim that the harder you practice, the luckier you get. But do these things even themselves out over a season? Do you make your own luck?
Liverpool's triumph in the 2005 Champions League Final was a fantastic story and a tribute to Steven Gerrard's inspirational qualities. However, the bottom line is Liverpool were in the final because they beat Chelsea with a goal that clearly did not cross the line. And many referees would not have awarded Gerrard a penalty when he tumbled dramatically during the revival in Instanbul. Xabi Alonso missed that penalty but the ball bounced back off the keeper to him. That may be construed as making your own luck by being in the right position, but Liverpool had nothing to do with Shevchenko missing from five yards.
In the seven World Cup Finals England have played in since 1966 they have never gone out by more than a single goal. In 1982 they were unbeaten. In 1990, 1998 and 2006 they went out on penalties. Of the rest Sir Alf Ramsey made a bad substitution, Maradona cheated and Ronaldinho scored a freak-cum-wonder goal.
The margin between success and failure is clearly very small when you are one of the best eight sides in the world, as England routinely are, and so it stands to reason that the role of luck will be amplified. So forget the debates about Walcott and Lennon and 4-5-1, the question Fabio Capello needs to ask himself is does he feel lucky. Well, do you?
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