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[Politics] General Election 2024 - 4th July







Eeyore

Colonel Hee-Haw of Queen's Park
NSC Patron
Apr 5, 2014
24,729
Can't see how they won't lick the final dregs from the barrel. I'd be surprised if they don't go the full term. But I'm guessing they'll be throwing all sorts of stuff at folk that the government can't afford. It's the problem with the party system.

I think I'd prefer a benign dictatorship.
 


A1X

Well-known member
NSC Patron
Sep 1, 2017
19,203
Deepest, darkest Sussex
As I see it, they have two realistic options;

1. Election in May at the same time as the local elections (2nd May). They could go on a date after that but I believe that if it turns out to be carnage for the Tories on that night, it will embolden the opposition and demoralise the Tory grassroots, plus in the minds of the public it will show that everyone else is voting against them so why shouldn’t they?

2. Election in October, launching the campaign at party conference season in September to “rally the troops”, hoping something “turns up” over the summer that they can cling to.

Of course there are other options, but I feel they’re less likely. Nobody wants to turn out and vote in the middle of winter (unless you’re determined to kick them out, obviously). People resent it happening too close to Christmas (people don’t want to be thinking politics while shoving mince pies and Quality Street in their faces). In high summer people are on holiday and it becomes an administrative nightmare with postal voting for people who’ve already booked two weeks in Tenerife (other summer holiday spots are available).
 


Harry Wilson's tackle

Harry Wilson's Tackle
NSC Patron
Oct 8, 2003
53,290
Faversham
Can't see how they won't lick the final dregs from the barrel. I'd be surprised if they don't go the full term. But I'm guessing they'll be throwing all sorts of stuff at folk that the government can't afford. It's the problem with the party system.

I think I'd prefer a benign dictatorship.
Nah. It is what it is and we have to use our vote judiciously.
 


Harry Wilson's tackle

Harry Wilson's Tackle
NSC Patron
Oct 8, 2003
53,290
Faversham
As I see it, they have two realistic options;

1. Election in May at the same time as the local elections (2nd May). They could go on a date after that but I believe that if it turns out to be carnage for the Tories on that night, it will embolden the opposition and demoralise the Tory grassroots, plus in the minds of the public it will show that everyone else is voting against them so why shouldn’t they?

2. Election in October, launching the campaign at party conference season in September to “rally the troops”, hoping something “turns up” over the summer that they can cling to.

Of course there are other options, but I feel they’re less likely. Nobody wants to turn out and vote in the middle of winter (unless you’re determined to kick them out, obviously). People resent it happening too close to Christmas (people don’t want to be thinking politics while shoving mince pies and Quality Street in their faces). In high summer people are on holiday and it becomes an administrative nightmare with postal voting for people who’ve already booked two weeks in Tenerife (other summer holiday spots are available).
If, as it seems, there is the 'border in Ulster' question to resolve, and a Brexit financial buggering round the corner, and no real prospect of the boats being stopped (except by winter) the Tories need to get the bribes in, then have a general election before the nation's lifeblood starts to seep onto the carpet. So an election in early 24 maps best to that narrative. The sooner the better (for them).

Or they could 'do a Callaghan' and hang on to the bitter end in the hope that nobody will think there is a crisis (what crisis?).

My gut feeling is they will do the latter, in which case my money is on the former.
 
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Eeyore

Colonel Hee-Haw of Queen's Park
NSC Patron
Apr 5, 2014
24,729
As I see it, they have two realistic options;

1. Election in May at the same time as the local elections (2nd May). They could go on a date after that but I believe that if it turns out to be carnage for the Tories on that night, it will embolden the opposition and demoralise the Tory grassroots, plus in the minds of the public it will show that everyone else is voting against them so why shouldn’t they?

2. Election in October, launching the campaign at party conference season in September to “rally the troops”, hoping something “turns up” over the summer that they can cling to.

Of course there are other options, but I feel they’re less likely. Nobody wants to turn out and vote in the middle of winter (unless you’re determined to kick them out, obviously). People resent it happening too close to Christmas (people don’t want to be thinking politics while shoving mince pies and Quality Street in their faces). In high summer people are on holiday and it becomes an administrative nightmare with postal voting for people who’ve already booked two weeks in Tenerife (other summer holiday spots are available).
Historically, winter elections don't affect turnout. In the last 50 years the highest figure was for February 1974. Looks like the motivation is issues more than anything. Folk can always vote by post.

Ten out of the last eleven have been in spring though.

It would be odd to call an election early. I can only assume they are putting plans in place for a long build up. Who knows ?
 




Pavilionaire

Well-known member
Jul 7, 2003
30,966
Given that they have a 20 point swing to turn around you'd think the Tories would need all the time available.

And given people will be skint after Christmas and the weather miserable that won't be great for growth, high street footfall. Then there is the war in Palestine that will no doubt be rumbling on.

Therefore, I'd be surprised if the GE was any earlier than April. My money would be on June, then only 1 month to summer recess before party conference season in September 2024.

Worst case scenario for Tories is they lose but deny Labour time to keep momentum going, whilst themselves being able to get the inquest into defeat out of the way, possibly choose a new leader and then regroup at their party conference late September then start laying into Labour before they get settled.

Best case scenario for the Tories is by June inflation and interest rates fall, the economic figures improve, Palestine War might be behind us, Ukraine regaining territory, Putin looking weaker, people are happier with the NI cut and minimum wage rises, a month of football to look forward to with the Euros for England, Scotland and possibly Wales and - just possibly - a few Labour own goals and red top shitehousery to sow seeds of doubt.
 




Hugo Rune

Well-known member
NSC Patron
Feb 23, 2012
22,600
Brighton
Can't see how they won't lick the final dregs from the barrel. I'd be surprised if they don't go the full term. But I'm guessing they'll be throwing all sorts of stuff at folk that the government can't afford. It's the problem with the party system.

I think I'd prefer a benign dictatorship.
Remember, the Tory mindset is ALWAYS to look after No.1 and your own selfish interests above all else. Slimy Sunak is the antithesis of this mindset.

Assuming that he is the key decision maker here and that the Tories will surely lose the next election by a huge amount, is he keen on staying on as leader (if so, he might want to ride the wave of the NI cut) or is he after some sort of executive role on the board of an oil company or something similar? With Cameron brought into advise him about the post-PM lifestyle, he’ll be desperately trying to mould the Tory election strategy around his own profound greed and ambition.

Certainly, an interesting few months ahead because by Jan 1st 2025, they’ll surely be worse off in the polls once people have realised that their tax bribes don’t amount to much.

I think Rishi could go for an election in March. He doesn’t need another summer or unchallenged boat crossings to lesser his appeal even more.
 


Zeberdi

“Vorsprung durch Technik”
NSC Patron
Oct 20, 2022
5,695
The taxation tweaking has got so complicated though, I doubt whether most of the electorate know that the overall taxation has gone up rather than down - If the Tories do try and see out the Term and lose in 2028, Labour will be met with a huge budget deficit from the current frozen thresholds becoming unfrozen and the upward trajectory of tax burdens forecast to be at a post-war all time high of 37.7% under the current fiscal policy.

Health/NHS will be the overriding issue for the electorate IMO followed by the economy - not people arriving in small boats (although in the eyes of the Daily Mailers there’s a causative link there) and not climate or education or foreign policy. They can bribe the electorate with tax handouts prior to a GE then remove them at the next budget but they can’t lift a chronically sick NHS off it’s knees within a few months - it needs a major overhaul - a promise to build a few extra hospitals and take 10 minutes off waiting times won’t convince anyone.
 
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Blue3

Well-known member
Jan 27, 2014
5,696
Lancing
Nah. It is what it is and we have to use our vote judiciously.
The press this morning is suggesting a snap spring election however I think It should a winter election should not be ruled out for the following advantages it would hand to the Tories.

Winter provides dark, cold possibly wet and snowy weather.
New rules (first time used in a general election) at polling stations.
Post Christmas / New Year lull in the public mood
The world is turning right even far right

I agree that using our vote Judiciously will be vital the ruling party knows this and will use any advantage it thinks it can to disrupt opposition supporters from voting.
 
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Nobby

Well-known member
Sep 29, 2007
2,809
May, at the same time as the local council elections. The pensioners will have received their rise in April, as announced yesterday, and another budget in March will offer bribes.
Yep I think so too. Weather getting better, the sunny uplands approaching. Another six months for people to forget just how bad the last 13 years have been
 




Harry Wilson's tackle

Harry Wilson's Tackle
NSC Patron
Oct 8, 2003
53,290
Faversham
Yep I think so too. Weather getting better, the sunny uplands approaching. Another six months for people to forget just how bad the last 13 years have been
And let's not forget, by slashing inflation in half, with a record reduction in just 12 months, the Tories have shown that unlike labour they can be trusted with the economy.
 


Gwylan

Well-known member
Jul 5, 2003
31,514
Uffern
The press this morning is suggesting a snap spring election however I think It should a winter election should not be ruled out for the following advantages it would hand to the Tories.

Winter provides dark, cold possibly wet and snowy weather.
New rules (first time used in a general election) at polling stations.
Post Christmas / New Year lull in the public mood
The world is turning right even far right

I agree that using our vote Judiciously will be vital the ruling party knows this and will use any advantage it thinks it can to disrupt opposition supporters from voting.
Not sure that it's true that the world is turning right: it did in Italy, Argentina, Finland, Slovakia and, to a certain extent in Netherlands. But the centre-right party was defeated in Germany, the far right in Poland and the centre left coalition held on in Spain. Next year, there'll be elections in the UK and in Portugal and centre left parties maintain a healthy lead in opinion polls. There have certainly been more moves to the right than the left but it's overstating things to say that the world is turning right.

But I generally agree that a winter election is possible, next year's increase in tax threshold will negate any NI cuts and there's the thorny issue of the boats, a summer of arrivals won't look good for a PM who's vowed to stop them.

The other factor is the febrile atmosphere at Westminster. We already know that letters of no confidence in Sunak have been sent, not many at the moment but enough to unsettle things. The last thing any PM wants is to fight an election knowing that a big chunk of his own party is against him. He may want to tip any revolt in the bud.
 


jcdenton08

Offended Liver Sausage
NSC Patron
Oct 17, 2008
11,940
I’ll be voting for S Baldrick of the Adder Party
 






Is it PotG?

Thrifty non-licker
Feb 20, 2017
24,289
Sussex by the Sea
Baron Von Thunderclap

2017_2681_Baron_Von_Thunderclap.jpg


NOT the same as the other trough snouters
 


chickens

Have you considered masterly inactivity?
NSC Patron
Oct 12, 2022
2,251
Not sure that it's true that the world is turning right: it did in Italy, Argentina, Finland, Slovakia and, to a certain extent in Netherlands. But the centre-right party was defeated in Germany, the far right in Poland and the centre left coalition held on in Spain. Next year, there'll be elections in the UK and in Portugal and centre left parties maintain a healthy lead in opinion polls. There have certainly been more moves to the right than the left but it's overstating things to say that the world is turning right.

But I generally agree that a winter election is possible, next year's increase in tax threshold will negate any NI cuts and there's the thorny issue of the boats, a summer of arrivals won't look good for a PM who's vowed to stop them.

The other factor is the febrile atmosphere at Westminster. We already know that letters of no confidence in Sunak have been sent, not many at the moment but enough to unsettle things. The last thing any PM wants is to fight an election knowing that a big chunk of his own party is against him. He may want to tip any revolt in the bud.

Absolutely, I think Sunak has to hold the general election before the local elections.

If results are bad in the local elections, Sunak will certainly be challenged for the leadership by one of the far right frothers currently infesting the Conservative Party, so I don’t think he can afford to wait.

His only chance of retaining power and keeping the Conservatives at least partially out of the far-right’s grip is to call the election and rely on the general public having really short memories. (Spoiler: they do)

I don’t currently see a path for the Conservative Party to win the next election, but they have a united and organised network of client journalists across the Mail, Express, Sun, Times and Telegraph, plus I suspect @Is it PotG? still watches GBeebies, so there’s at least one vote won for them there.

The attack dogs are going to be relentlessly focused on Starmer/Labour from the New Year onward, Starmer is going to have to continue his policy of making himself and Labour as small a target as possible right up to election day.

None of the media outlets listed above have enough clout to swing an election individually, but cumulatively they have the effect on people’s minds that “if they’re all saying it, it must be true.”
 


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