General Election 2015

[London Irish]

Probably the last major opinion poll for this election...

IPSOS Mori:

Con 36%
Lab 35%
UKIP 11%
LDem 8%
Green 5%
Others 5%

And the important thing there was MORI was only pollster left showing a big Tory phone poll lead - now say near tied too

CON—36% (+1)
LAB—35% (+5)
UKIP—11% (+1)
LDEM—8%
GRN—5%

If there has been a last day surge for anyone, it ain't the Tories

 

[jimbob5]

Christ! you are easily pleased!!

Yeah. Now you mention it. I would not trust any of them!

 

[Surf's Up]

She's quite cute looking.

Can I politely suggest you arrange an appointment with your optician as a matter of some urgency? I fear you may be in need of some spectacles.

 

[jimbob5]

Politicians? Opinion polls? or women??

Any of them! Although, to be fair, since 1992, the polls have usually been accurate by luck or judgement.

 

[Cian]

I'm in bad shape already. Are a long couple of days in Bristol I had a few ciders last night, was up well beyond midnight before falling asleep on the sofa.

I need to re-think my strategy for tonight.

Early dinner, power nap, alarm for 10:30 (there won't be a declaration before then)

 

[Rodney Thomas]

Early dinner, power nap, alarm for 10:30 (there won't be a declaration before then)

Is probably the best plan.

I'm in Belgium so it'll be early to bed for me and up at 5am. In time to see a large chunk of the counts coming in after 4am UK time.

 

[Herr Tubthumper]

Milliband clearly has good taste.

Stephanie Flanders as well. I wonder if some of the bile sent his way is jealousy due to him being such a hit with the ladies? If I was a dull suburban Tory voter knowing my wife, like most women it seems, dreams of Brand and Miliband I'd probably feel the same.

 

[jimbob5]

Stephanie Flanders as well. I wonder if some of the bile sent his way is jealousy due to him being such a hit with the ladies?

As a rampant homosexual, I can see what you mean.

 

[gregbrighton]

Come on Ed. You can win!

 

[jimbob5]

Come on Ed. You can win!

That would be good but I'm worried that he'll be in the pocket of the awful SNP.

 

[Titanic]

Come on Ed. You can win!

It would have, and perhaps should have, been a lot easier if he hadn't BLOWN a 7 point opinion poll lead and completely alienated his core vote in Scotland though.

 

[Herr Tubthumper]

And the important thing there was MORI was only pollster left showing a big Tory phone poll lead - now say near tied too

CON—36% (+1)
LAB—35% (+5)
UKIP—11% (+1)
LDEM—8%
GRN—5%

If there has been a last day surge for anyone, it ain't the Tories

Those "shy" Tories really are shy.

 

[Herr Tubthumper]

Come on Ed. You can win!

Nice avatar!

 

[jimbob5]

It would have, and perhaps should have, been a lot easier if he hadn't BLOWN a 7 point opinion poll lead and completely alienated his core vote in Scotland though.

OOOH! He can blow MY 7 point lead any time!

 

[seagullsovergrimsby]

Those "shy" Tories really are shy.

Judging by the conversations on the way out of the polling station here earlier this morning they've tactically voted UKIP

 

[London Irish]

Final final final poll

The final Guardian/ICM #GE2015 poll:

LAB 35%
CON 34%
UKIP 11%
LDEM 9%
GRN 4%

 

[deletebeepbeepbeep]

Final ICM poll has Labour a point ahead.

 

[synavm]

What does all this mean seat wise? Is it likely, according to the polls, that Labour will be marginally the largest party, or does the situation with Scotland harm their averages?

 

[seagullsovergrimsby]

What does all this mean seat wise? Is it likely, according to the polls, that Labour will be marginally the largest party, or does the situation with Scotland harm their averages?

Its all swings and roundabouts , the national percentages don't necessarily follow in the key marginals and until the polls close we don't know if tactical voting has swung it one way or the other.

 

[London Irish]

What does all this mean seat wise? Is it likely, according to the polls, that Labour will be marginally the largest party, or does the situation with Scotland harm their averages?

That % includes their well deserved meltdown in Scotland.

I always thought the boundary seat arithmetic favoured Labour in terms of close %s but Ive seen some learned pieces in the last few days that say otherwise