General Election 2015

[Mellor 3 Ward 4]

I also wonder about this. Why should a result in October be so radically different from one in May? There's too little time for a government to do anything positive or negative

Different leaders?

 

[Gwylan]

Different leaders?

Yes, that's a good point but Labour can only change at their conference so it would be tight. Conservatives can change at any time.

In 1974, both the leaders were the same. Heath resigned after he lost the second one

 

[ROSM]

As it looks very likely that tories will have the most seats but fail to 'win' a majority then they will need to make some friends pretty quick. If lib dems are decapitated (Clegg losing his seat) then Danny Alexander or David laws are the only top team pro tories left.

 

[ROSM]

Yes, that's a good point but Labour can only change at their conference so it would be tight. Conservatives can change at any time.

In 1974, both the leaders were the same. Heath resigned after he lost the second one

Did he resign or was he challenged. I thought he needed to be dragged kicking and screaming from the job

 

[Don Quixote]

As it looks very likely that tories will have the most seats but fail to 'win' a majority then they will need to make some friends pretty quick. If lib dems are decapitated (Clegg losing his seat) then Danny Alexander or David laws are the only top team pro tories left.

Alexander will be losing his seat almost certainly.

 

[peterward]

Alexander will be losing his seat almost certainly.

I quite like Danny Alexander, always calm and pretty reasoned arguments as has David Laws. Clegg however is a snake oil salesman.

 

[Simster]

Alexander will be losing his seat almost certainly.

Indeed:

http://www.oddschecker.com/politics...s-nairn-badenoch-and-strathspey/winning-party

Alexander paying the price for the Lib Dems getting into bed with the Tories. Never going to go down well in a Scotch constituency.

 

[Triggaaar]

A la Nick Clegg?

Yes, exactly. Do you disagree?

Not really. That sort of thing would immediately trigger a vote of no confidence, another election and the probability of the parties responsible losing more of their share of the vote.

True. But if the "common view" which got them into power in the first place breaks down sufficiently or proves unworkable it triggers a vote of no-confidence.

That's definitely a possibility. Whatever coalition forms, they'll be trying to do what's important to them while avoiding a vote of no confidence, but the danger is that while avoiding it, they do things that the majority of us don't like, even though we're not constantly up in arms enough to have another election.

 

[Simster]

Yes, exactly. Do you disagree?


That's definitely a possibility. Whatever coalition forms, they'll be trying to do what's important to them while avoiding a vote of no confidence, but the danger is that while avoiding it, they do things that the majority of us don't like, even though we're not constantly up in arms enough to have another election.

There's no more danger of that happening than a majority government doing, except with a majority government we'd have to put up with it for 5 years! No disrespect, but this seems a bit of a daft argument you're trying to make.

 

[Gwylan]

Did he resign or was he challenged. I thought he needed to be dragged kicking and screaming from the job

He was challenged for leadership by Thatcher; when he didn't win on first ballot (he trailed Thatcher) rather than go forward to the second ballot

 

[ROSM]

Yes, exactly. Do you disagree?


That's definitely a possibility. Whatever coalition forms, they'll be trying to do what's important to them while avoiding a vote of no confidence, but the danger is that while avoiding it, they do things that the majority of us don't like, even though we're not constantly up in arms enough to have another election.

I do disagree. Clegg had large support from his wider party and met with them a number of times pre signing the agreement

But he was still trying, to the end of the talks, to get a better deal. In fact, Gordon Brown and his advisors forced his hand somewhat by announcing his going to the palace to resign. It was documented at the time that Clegg begged him.to hang on one more night

 

[ROSM]

He was challenged for leadership by Thatcher; when he didn't win on first ballot (he trailed Thatcher) rather than go forward to the second ballot

There is a delicious irony that Cameron, who told people he was the 'heir to blair' will likely be 'brief like heath'

 

[peterward]

I understand what you're saying but I'm sitting here typing this in a country which has had a "grand" coalition for the past two years, a nation which has had numerous multicoloured coalitions over the past 4-5 decades. None have resulted in chaos. In fact there is a good argument to suggest it's been beneficial.

There is absolutely no foundation to your argument that a Labour/SNP will be chaos. None at all. The "ransom" comment is ludicrous. At best they can extract a few items but little more or they'll be voted out via no-confidence if they start pissing about. They're bullish but not stupid. Your argument is at best guess work, at worse scaremongering.

I'm all for coalitions HT, unless one party gets more than 50% of the national vote (not seats). I honestly do believe the SNP propping up labour will be a disaster and wont last the term as they are a narrow interest party, are labours biggest rival in Scotland, and not interested at all in the UK they want to split.

I know coalition works well in Germany as it does in many countries, as in my opinion has this last coalition,and any system of genuine PR would almost certainly guarantee coalition politics int he UK and that every vote counts and we get a true representation of voters. But in this next election with FPTP we wont get a milliband PM coalition government, (unless he's lying or the LD's have a last minute surge) we'll get a minority labour government relying on life support from a narrow self interest non UK party whose biggest rival is the party it props up. You don't think they'll pull the rug in the UK national interest and bring down Labour, if there's a chance that either the SNP or Scotland will benefit from doing so?

In Germany if a party from the former East arose that was determined to re-split Germany into East/West, That was not intersted in a united Germany, that wanted stay in the EU but disassociate from West Germany, to massively increase borrowing and had an agenda to see a disproportionate amount of wealth flowing West Germans to East Germans to shore up their support in East Germany at the expense of West Germans, set out its manifesto only to favour those from East at the expense of all other regions, but still wanted to vote on issues that only affect the West. Could they become the kingmaker that Merkel relies on as the only way to be chancellor? could they be the next biggest party on Merkel's side of the political spectrum with the 3rd largest number of seats (15%) but only 4% of national votes? Would the people in Cologne, Bonn and Munich be expected to think nothing of it, there's no risk to the European powerhouse economy, after all we still get to keep Merkel?

 

[seagullsovergrimsby]

Nobody is predicting 5 seats. SoG is making it up.

http://may2015.com/category/seat-calculator/

So Election Forecast is spot on because they say 1 seat ? So Elections Etc (4 seats) Poll Observatory (3 seats) Guardian (4 seats) are all wrong because they can be ignored if you don't like the figures ? I actually posted 4-5 seats but you ignored 4 and chose to mention 5 to get daveinprague frothing at the mouth about the thought of individuals having a personal choice to vote UKIP. In 1992 it was Tory voters who were too embarrassed to say which way they intended to vote , In 2015 it could well turn out to be UKIP voters (note the variance between face to face/phone polls and online polls). FYI I am voting Labour on May 7th.

 

[Triggaaar]

There's no more danger of that happening than a majority government doing, except with a majority government we'd have to put up with it for 5 years! No disrespect, but this seems a bit of a daft argument you're trying to make.

I appreciate the lack of disrespect, thanks. I don't see how it's a daft argument. Of course a majority government might do things we don't like, but generally speaking we have voted for their policies. The same is not true if, as Andrew Neil said, a small party hold the government to ransom.

 

[Simster]

So Election Forecast is spot on because they say 1 seat ? So Elections Etc (4 seats) Poll Observatory (3 seats) Guardian (4 seats) are all wrong because they can be ignored if you don't like the figures ? I actually posted 4-5 seats but you ignored 4 and chose to mention 5 to get daveinprague frothing at the mouth about the thought of individuals having a personal choice to vote UKIP. In 1992 it was Tory voters who were too embarrassed to say which way they intended to vote , In 2015 it could well turn out to be UKIP voters (note the variance between face to face/phone polls and online polls). FYI I am voting Labour on May 7th.

Hold on, you said 4-5 seats.

Election forecast predict 1 seat
Poll observatory predict 3 seats
Ladbrokes "predict" 3.5 seats
The Guardian predict 4 seats
Elections Etc predict 4 seats

You said 4 to 5. It isn't 4 to 5, it's 3 to 4 at best, or more accurately, 1 to 4.

 

[Simster]

I appreciate the lack of disrespect, thanks. I don't see how it's a daft argument. Of course a majority government might do things we don't like, but generally speaking we have voted for their policies. The same is not true if, as Andrew Neil said, a small party hold the government to ransom.

You're still having your cake and eating it. The point is that regardless of who takes office, there is nothing any of us can do to prevent that government doing what they want. You can't say that doesn't apply to a majority government but does to a coalition.

"A small party hold the government to ransom" is nonsense. They are part of the government, that's the point. There is political horse-trading involved of course, but you'd expect that.

I don't understand your point. Perhaps you could illustrate it with some sort of example of a scenario that you're worried about?

 

[glasfryn]

Yes, but that was in a two party system (the Liberals had just a handful of seats), a small swing would have made a big difference. That wouldn't be the case when there are four, five or six parties

I love the way clegg is assuming he will have the balance, when in fact he might have so few seats it will not make an iota of difference to anyone, have people forgotten how he has sold the students down the swanee, they for sure won't have.


also I think people do not listen to the SNP they are saying that whatever they will vote against any tory measures including the Queens speech

and to add to that how many youngsters would love to have an apprentiship, now the tories are saying the will make 5000 ,so why now what about the last 5 years

TORY PARTY NOT THE ONE FOR THE BRITISH YOUNG

 

[peterward]

There is a delicious irony that Cameron, who told people he was the 'heir to blair' will likely be 'brief like heath'

He wont be as brief as Ed though matey, unless Labour can cobble together a majority government?

My hunch Milliband will walk through downing street door sometime in May in a minority government, Dave will step down, the Tory's will have a coronation of Boris (who is hugely popular nationally). the Labour confidence and supply will collapse within 1 year and a Tory majority government will ensue with Boris as PM and no change at all to FPTP.

I don't underestimate either the desire for power of the tories or the desire for independence of the nationalists, Cameron didnt want to be remembered as the PM who lost the union, but losing Scotland would almost certainly ensure majority Tory governments, and that Labour would struggle to ever get one. In brief opposition, i wouldn't be at all suprised if the Torys and SNP cut a secret deal to have a new vote in Scotland (which the SNP will almost certainly win), if the SNP pull the plug to bring down Milliband at the opportune time. Tory Governments south of the border SNP ruling independent Scotland north of it and killing Labour will be in both of their parties interests.

Unless youre mad enough to believe the SNP will act in UK national interest and will put the interests of the Labour party before its own agenda?

Labour would never willingly see an independent Scotland as it would be a death knell to majority Labour government, Turkeys don't vote for Christmas but the SNP will have him snookered as thats exactly what the nationalists want and what would most benefit the Torys.

watch this space, Red Ed will be Dead

 

[sydney]

the what..?