Full national lockdown (not education) 4/11 - 1/12 possible

[LamieRobertson]

FFS - I'm not suggesting they are.

But, amongst a certain group of people, there are "get outs" to almost everything that is happening.

Problem: Lots of positive cases.
Answer: Lots of them will be false positives.

Problem: Lots of people in hospital with Covid-19.
Answer: They were in for something else and just happened to test positive whilst there.

Problem: lots of people reportedly dying of Covid-19:
Answer 1: WITH Covid-19, not OF Covid-19.
Answer 2: Someone could test positive with Covid-19 28 days ago, have no symptoms, and be knocked over by a child on a three-wheel scooter, go home and put a plaster on and suffer an extreme allergic reaction from the adhesive on the plaster and die and they'd be included as a Covid-19 death.

Problem: Only very few people have had Covid-19, so we have a large population of people with no immunity.
Answer: T-cell immunity.

It goes on and on and on. People who talk about T-cells today had never heard of them a year ago, yet suddenly they are spouting about them as if they are a world-leading virologist.

The latest one seems to the "well, it's flu season, isn't it?" Well, it's the start of the flu season, certainly, with the real bad stuff to come. Meanwhile we're already getting more hospitalisations today, in October, than we usually get in a BAD December.

[tweet]1322255390793498629[/tweet]

I really shouldn't bite. The deniers / excusers / "it's not that bad"-ers have a get-out to absolutely everything. I sincerely hope they are right. It's a massive ****ing gamble to pin the lives of millions of people on some of this stuff though.

Have a great weekend

 

[beorhthelm]

Hospitals across the majority of the U.K. are at normal capacity or below capacity - the north are struggling.
False positives are a real issue when you are doing 300000 tests a day
With COVID/Of COVID - I’m pretty sure everyone would like to know how many people actually died of the virus directly.
T-cells - they are real, and I suggest you learn more to understand, why you’ve included that I don’t know. If you’re dismissing T cells you are essentially dismissing a vaccine being a way out because we’ve seen immune antibodies decline in most people 4-8 weeks after infection which means a vaccine would be totally inefficient on a global scale.

And as for learning to live with it, whether or not you back Lockdown now, that’s a real possibility down the line and the sooner people realise a vaccine might never be the golden bullet the better.

so you accept the consequences of "living with it"? tens of thousands of elderly will suffer from a couple weeks on a respirator before dying. meanwhile nothing else gets treated because most capacity of health service is occupied by this one illness. OR... we adopt some triage for Covid that selects those to put on respirator or those for palliative care to end their suffering. they are the options.

either way please, please stop this trying to make distinction between with/of covid. its doesnt matter when contracting covid changes hundreds of thousands from a state of managed illness to a state of potential death within a fortnight.

 

[dazzer6666]

It’s an impossible position....
If we don’t lockdown, case numbers (and ultimately deaths) will continue to explode upwards

We can’t simply shield the vulnerable and let the rest get back to normal. For a start, 26% of men and 29% of women in the UK are classified as obese (with 60%+ being overweight) so immediately more than a quarter of adults evidently need to shield.....add to that other medical conditions etc and the number required to shield is huge to allow ‘the rest of us’ to crack on.

 

[cheshunt seagull]

I’ve said this since April - this is the biggest overreaction in the history of humanity, driven by the immediate, 24/7, hysterical media and compounded by the most incompetent leaders since royal families ran the world.
It will get ****ing worse too, imagine once we’re out of this, the media will be waiting for the next one like the ambulance chasing wankers they are.

My mother died of Covid at the Royal Sussex 2 weeks ago, my aunt and a member of my work team died of it in May. Please excuse me for taking this seriously although maybe I am being hysterical.

 

[jessiejames]

No surprise, looks like it’s been coming for a while. Depressing but inevitable. Will it work ? Not sure.

NO it ****ing wont. All that will happen is that the economy takes another battering, you will know more people who have lost jobs than you will know who has had Covid, we will muddle along hearing different stories about either how bad it is, or it's not as bad as the so called experts are saying (this from same groups of experts), get Christmas out the way, come January/February we will need to go through this again.
Repeat cycle.

This is a virus it's not going away, will a vaccination be ready and enough for everyone be ready soon? I doubt it, and even if it was will it work?

We need to live with this, yes people will die, people die every every day that's collateral damage in afraid.

 

[Napper]

average age of death is 81.

 

[LamieRobertson]

My mother died of Covid at the Royal Sussex 2 weeks ago, my aunt and a member of my work team died of it in May. Please excuse me for taking this seriously although maybe I am being hysterical.

That’s very sad...we all have a story to tell directly or indirectly because of Covid...none is more real than another

 

[The Clamp]

Absolutely, a government that never led us into a futile war against weapons of mass destruction that never even existed causing the unnecessary death of military personnel

Great isn’t it. This mob have found a way to kill thousands without even leaving No.10

 

[jessiejames]

That’s very sad...we all have a story to tell directly or indirectly because of Covid...none is more real than another

Neighbour died of Covid, but was never tested for it.

 

[Yoda]

Not sure that's correct - there are two things at play...

- The number of people each person infects (this is R)
- The speed with which that reinfection occurs.

Stuff I've read suggests that most people who develop symptoms do so between 4-6 days after infection, and that people typically start to become infectious a day or two before the onset of symptoms. I'm not sure what this means for those who remain asymptomatic throughout, but it feels like a good guess to suggest they also won't be immediately infectious.

If these are correct (and I'm not going to research that now at twenty past midnight) then no one can infect anyone the day after they became infected themselves as per your model.

I would also think that as soon as you start confining people to their accommodation, an R of 6 would plummet very, very quickly.

Haha! Yes, I was tired and not sure why I used consecutive days last night when I posted that, but it does still give a picture of how quickly the virus spreads IF the R was that high.

The role of people who remain truly asymptomatic does raise a question again that I asked in April/May. Has there been any real scientific studies done in the role that they play? I remember seeing a report at that time from Japan or Korea (can't remember which now) where they did contact tracing on someone that was infected but remained truly asymptomatic. All of his close contacts produced negative PCR tests. All available evidence I can find isuggests that asymptomatically infected individuals are much less likely to transmit the virus than those who develop symptoms, but then again I suppose it would unethical to shove a load of uninfected people in an enclosed room with someone that was asymptomatic. There's nothing to say those people thought to be being infected by an asymptomatic case didn't pick up the virus elsewhere through lake of hand washing etc....

 

[Bozza]

average age of death is 81.

Mean, mode or median?

 

[Half Time Pies]

NO it ****ing wont. All that will happen is that the economy takes another battering, you will know more people who have lost jobs than you will know who has had Covid, we will muddle along hearing different stories about either how bad it is, or it's not as bad as the so called experts are saying (this from same groups of experts), get Christmas out the way, come January/February we will need to go through this again.
Repeat cycle.

This is a virus it's not going away, will a vaccination be ready and enough for everyone be ready soon? I doubt it, and even if it was will it work?

We need to live with this, yes people will die, people die every every day that's collateral damage in afraid.

You are full of heart....would you feel OK if one of your close family members died from the virus? Would you be OK with them being 'collateral damage'?!

People that lose jobs can get another one when the economy recovers, people who die cannot unfortunately be brought back to life!

 

[LamieRobertson]

You are full of heart....would you feel OK if one of your close family members died from the virus? Would you be OK with them being 'collateral damage'?!

People that lose jobs can get another one when the economy recovers, people who die cannot unfortunately be brought back to life!

Are those the jobs on the magic job tree? Only we might be needing a magic money forest

 

[Wardy's twin]

My mother died of Covid at the Royal Sussex 2 weeks ago, my aunt and a member of my work team died of it in May. Please excuse me for taking this seriously although maybe I am being hysterical.

I am truly sorry for your losses

Some people don't get it , this is a serious disease and it its a killer but it has also left many survivors with very serious health conditions. This is much worse than flu or pneumonia when it strikes anyone with any weakness.

 

[Stat Brother]

Great isn’t it. This mob have found a way to kill thousands without even leaving No.10

TBH this is life (or not) now and Covid isn't what they signed on for.

With that in mind it would be nice if they weren't being such dicks about it.

'We've also listened to the advise Kier has taken on board, but feel for these reasons it's not the way to go now'.

 

[Yoda]

Thank you for asking.

I guess she has what is being called Long Covid. She has been left breathless and not being able to walk up inclines, stairs etc, very tired and lethargic and has some nerve damage which means her left thumb is always painful and has problems with her left arm. She also developed more blood clots. The irony is that she caught COVID when she was an outpatient following her treatment for Lymphoma ( a blood cancer).

Last year she was diagnosed with Lymphoma, had two different types of chemo that did not work, 15 days of radiotherapy over last Christmas (at least she had the two days off) followed by a brand new treatment, she was first NHS patient in South East to have it. Process is called CAR-T where her blood T-cells are extracted then sent to the US for modification and then put back in. This was combined with another round of very high dosage chemo to lower her immune system. The cells are put back in and resulted in her body fighting them which resulted in her first visit to ICU. The lymphoma treatment has worked as the lumps have disappeared and scans are clear.

With the COVID she was in initially for 4 weeks including ICU , then another 2 weeks , then home then another 4 weeks. Most of the COVID treatment was done at the Royal Marsden and its clear to me that the cancer doctor's intervention was vital. They advised use of the steroid that later became well publicised.

Apart from her getting Covid, that is an amazing good story to hear on here, both that she has seen the lumps disappear and that she was treated at the Royal Marden for Covid making the use of the steroids to be known as a way of helping the very sick fight it.

I would say I wouldn't be so sure the nerve damage is a cause of the long Covid though. My mother has pain and numbness in her feet due to cancer treatment, a possible side effect of a type of steroid and chemo.

 

[jessiejames]

You are full of heart....would you feel OK if one of your close family members died from the virus? Would you be OK with them being 'collateral damage'?!

People that lose jobs can get another one when the economy recovers, people who die cannot unfortunately be brought back to life!

Unfortunately it's part of life that someday my loved ones will die, I have to accept that. When I hear of conflicting reports from people who work together in the same departments I don't know what to believe.
I will have to carry on working if there is another lockdown, just like the last one, I'm not apparently a key worker, I'm a step above according to the government, I provide an essential service I don't get a choice, who is protecting me? Maybe that's why some may think I'm heartless.

 

[Harry Wilson's tackle]

Hi Harry,
No, I don't think you should just suck it up. You can work from home and that is fine.
My point was that the person who posted was fortunate and that maybe his post came over as rather insensitive to those who are not in his position. Sort of, 'bollocks, if it's not safe for me to visit a non essential shop, then it's not safe for me to sit in an office at work. I'm going to work from home, whatever my employer wants."
I just pointed out that he was fortunate to have that choice.
For the record, I am fortunate that at 72, I am retired and can do f... all, my wife is self employed in the fitness industry and her business has taken a severe hit during this pandemic and it looks likely that she will have to shut again. Daughter is self employed and may well have to shut up shop. Number one son is a supply teacher and has had one day of work since March and number two son works for a multi national company in London and can work from home.
I do hope you will not be laid off at the drop of a hat, but it can happen to anybody. It happened to this old bugger, four times during my career. Each time I just had to pick myself up and get on with it.

Fair enough.

In reality if I get laid off tens of thousands of academics would have been laid off before me, and the country would be a very different place ecen to what it is now.

I'm worried about my son whose job isn't secure, and who's not especially resourceful. It will be what it will be, though. I'm turning my 'office' into a spare bedroom in case he has to move in with us.

All the best

 

[Yoda]

The one thing I do not get with this, is that this is leaked in a week where appears the number of new cases are plateauing and the R estimate has fallen to 1.1. <-- This data is from King's College combined with the Zoe app. They have the largest and most up to date data set being used.

Lets not forget SAGE use Imperial College (who have by and large been a joke through out this with their predictions), whose recent ReACT study was using ONS data, which uses a smaller sample of random general population testing plus actual data from standard testing. This ONS data is always at a minimum of two weeks lag.

 

[Half Time Pies]

Are those the jobs on the magic job tree? Only we might be needing a magic money forest

I don't know how anyone looking at the crisis can not finally see that the government actually does have a magic money tree, its called the Bank of England! Where do you think that all this money to fund the crisis suddenly has come from??!

Although UK national borrowing has gone up by £200 Billion this year, the Bank of England (on behalf of the government) has spent £250 billion buying back UK National debt using freshly created money through the process of QE.