Full national lockdown (not education) 4/11 - 1/12 possible

[Weststander]

Very much so...you add into that mix of kids from deprived backgrounds and unemployed parents ..the list goes on ..not sure that is represented by regular posters on NSC ...including me...but you have posted something that I havnt seen much of amongst the ‘debating’

It got talked about in NSC covid threads in the spring, many moons ago.

 

[The Clamp]

If a full lockdown does happen, it will depend a lot on financial aspects. People won’t be anywhere near as well off as the first lockdown this time as many have been made redundant after furlough and hundreds of thousands more have lost jobs, so I would guess there will be a lot more unrest this time round.

And anyone who believes this lockdown would end early December -

Yep. Boris, Cummings and the rest of the fairy godfathers will be tucked into their second homes in the country with their Fortnum & Mason hampers and Victorian parlour games compendium while the filthy masses can look forward to unemployment, 80% wages and an endless lock down.
Merry ****ing Christmas.

 

[Yoda]

R rates at some universities were six a few weeks ago.

If that were the case it would've ripped the the entire student population in a week from one single case at each university, and that's based on the largest university in the country, University College London (41,180 total students)

Day 1. 1 case
Day 2. 6 new cases
Day 3. 36 new cases
Day 4. 216 new cases
Day 5. 1,296 new cases
Day 6. 7,776 new cases
Day 7. 46,656 new cases

 

[atomised]

That sounds awful, but in terms of celebrating Christmas, 4 of you being together as immediate family hasn't been an issue re covid since day one, so why would it be an issue over Christmas?!

Well HKFC seemed to think it was an issue. He made a judgement on my situation and felt my planned behaviour was worthy of calling me a selfish prick

 

[LamieRobertson]

I have on the other hand made clear on many threads what my Christmas is. Selfish prick was a completely unwarranted insult in my opinion

You know my feelings about the original post ..but just something to bear in mind that HKFC lost his father earlier this month ....just maybe that had some bearing on his reply

 

[Wardy's twin]

I was called a selfish prick for no reason though. True I didn't give numbers and the post maybe came across that way but the response was uncalled for from someone who just assumed what my post referred to

ok let's agree that a mistake has been made , your initial unconditioned comment and my quick response but having just watched the news i was annoyed at the 'f*ck you' guy on the news. So hope that clears the air , it's easy for us to get wrapped up in our own worlds especially when they are not going well.

 

[atomised]

You know my feelings about the original post ..but just something to bear in mind that HKFC lost his father earlier this month ....just maybe that had some bearing on his reply

That's fair enough. I will remain disappointed by his judgement but understand that it may impact his response

 

[Bozza]

If that were the case it would've ripped the the entire student population in a week from one single case at each university, and that's based on the largest university in the country, University College London (41,180 total students)

Day 1. 1 case
Day 2. 6 new cases
Day 3. 36 new cases
Day 4. 216 new cases
Day 5. 1,296 new cases
Day 6. 7,776 new cases
Day 7. 46,656 new cases

Not sure that's correct - there are two things at play...

- The number of people each person infects (this is R)
- The speed with which that reinfection occurs.

Stuff I've read suggests that most people who develop symptoms do so between 4-6 days after infection, and that people typically start to become infectious a day or two before the onset of symptoms. I'm not sure what this means for those who remain asymptomatic throughout, but it feels like a good guess to suggest they also won't be immediately infectious.

If these are correct (and I'm not going to research that now at twenty past midnight) then no one can infect anyone the day after they became infected themselves as per your model.

I would also think that as soon as you start confining people to their accommodation, an R of 6 would plummet very, very quickly.

 

[atomised]

ok let's agree that a mistake has been made , your initial unconditioned comment and my quick response but having just watched the news i was annoyed at the 'f*ck you' guy on the news. So hope that clears the air , it's easy for us to get wrapped up in our own worlds especially when they are not going well.

So true and thank you. I was so pleased in lockdown 1 with the kindness that people showed generally. All that has sadly drifted now

 

[Weststander]

So true and thank you. I was so pleased in lockdown 1 with the kindness that people showed generally. All that has sadly drifted now

Hopefully the vast majority will still be considerate and kind.

There were ********s in Lockdown 1.

 

[LamieRobertson]

At least we’ll have some live football to watch on the box this time. According to the EPL on 14th Oct:


View attachment 129952

Dam GP was hoping for another project restart

 

[Weststander]

Dam GP was hoping for another project restart

That crossed my mind too.

Each EPL CV19 shutdown is worth 12 points to us.

We need the EPL to be shut down three times this season to give us safety.

 

[The Clamp]

I thought all that pot banging was supposed to stop the hospitals over-flowing? I shan't bother this time round.

 

[drew]

All very valid points. I can’t argue with that. I guess it comes down to trust in those making the decisions though. We obviously don’t have access to the details but I know someone in the NHS who was told 6 weeks ago that these would be the dates of the lockdown. That seems odd to me. The same person says they have never been quieter at this time of the year.

I very much doubt that your friend was told categorically that 4th Nov would see the start of national lockdown. The stats at that time whilst increasing didn't suggest the country needed a full lockdown hence all the local restrictions. It may well be there were several models looked at and one of them suggested 4th Nov (possibly on basis it would stop large crowds on bonfire night!

 

[drew]

When they talk about the NHS being over run, where is this? Because it hasn’t happened in the North where cases have peaked and plateaued. It hasn’t happened in the South.

And to the best of my knowledge they still haven’t used any of the Nightingale hospitals this time round either, all of which means we still have massive unused capacity.

And on a separate point of order. No one can sacrifice Christmas. Jesus was born, approximately 2020 years ago. Whether we have 20 people for lunch on Christmas Day or 6, thats still a fact.

To be fair, they are anticipating problems. Look at ventilator cases, on 18 Sept, there were 138 ventilated patients across the UK. Today there were 975, nearly a 7 fold increase.

It would be abject neglect by a government if they waited until the beds were full before taking action.

 

[drew]

I thought all that pot banging was supposed to stop the hospitals over-flowing? I shan't bother this time round.

Charming!!

 

[sparkie]

If that were the case it would've ripped the the entire student population in a week from one single case at each university, and that's based on the largest university in the country, University College London (41,180 total students)

Day 1. 1 case
Day 2. 6 new cases
Day 3. 36 new cases
Day 4. 216 new cases
Day 5. 1,296 new cases
Day 6. 7,776 new cases
Day 7. 46,656 new cases

You do know that the R value is not the daily case growth rate ?


An R-value of 6 simply means that 1 infected person will on average infect 6 others. It does not mean that all 6 of those will be the next day.

 

[JackB247]

To add my two cents on this - the first time was understandable, the world (and this country) was in shock and had little knowledge on how to deal with this pandemic. The economy had to come second in this instance.

This time round it just feels like failure - government has had a good 6 months to prepare and stop a second wave yet hasn't done so. The testing system just simply isn't where it should be and that goes right to the heart of the Johnson administration. It is eminently disappointing that this will cost us at least a months worth of freedom once again and a hell of a lot in terms of the Exchequer.

 

[Weststander]

To add my two cents on this - the first time was understandable, the world (and this country) was in shock and had little knowledge on how to deal with this pandemic. The economy had to come second in this instance.

This time round it just feels like failure - government has had a good 6 months to prepare and stop a second wave yet hasn't done so. The testing system just simply isn't where it should be and that goes right to the heart of the Johnson administration. It is eminently disappointing that this will cost us at least a months worth of freedom once again and a hell of a lot in terms of the Exchequer.

It couldn’t be stopped, without everyone being in Lockdown for 15 months. Printing of money would have to end at some stage.



Countries that had it under control the first time are being overwhelmed.

In Germany which had one of the best track n trace systems on the planet, addressing parliament on Thursday Mrs Merkel said that "winter will be hard - four long, difficult months - but it will come to an end".

"This pandemic brings the question of freedom to the fore. Freedom is not 'every man for himself', it is responsibility - for oneself, one's family, the workplace. It shows us we are part of a whole.”

 

[vegster]

Sounds like it's coming soon, some type of lockdown seems inevitable given the recent surge in numbers.