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For all you fellow anoraks !



Blues Rock DJ

New member
Apr 18, 2011
4,007
Dorset
Courtesy of today's Times newspaper.......next Saturday (2nd March) when Southampton host QPR, both managers will be celebrating their birthday. The chances of this happening are 133,401 - 1 .:yawn:
 




MattBackHome

Well-known member
Jul 7, 2003
11,859
Don't know where they got that 133,401 figure from but I'd dispute it.

Assuming Premier league: Manager A plays 38 games a season so there is a 38/365 chance that any given match is on his birthday. To satisfy the 'double' Manager B has to also share the same birthday: 1/365.

Mutually exclusive events - multiply them up and you get 38/133k or roughly 1 in 3500?

Happy Monday everyone.
 


halbpro

Well-known member
Jan 25, 2012
2,902
Brighton
Don't know where they got that 133,401 figure from but I'd dispute it.

Assuming Premier league: Manager A plays 38 games a season so there is a 38/365 chance that any given match is on his birthday. To satisfy the 'double' Manager B has to also share the same birthday: 1/365.

Mutually exclusive events - multiply them up and you get 38/133k or roughly 1 in 3500?

Happy Monday everyone.

Are odds not longer than 38/365 as fixtures aren't played every day of the week? Believe it's only Saturday, Sunday and Monday so they've only got a 3/7 chance of their birthday being on a potential fixture day?
 


MattBackHome

Well-known member
Jul 7, 2003
11,859
Are odds not longer than 38/365 as fixtures aren't played every day of the week? Believe it's only Saturday, Sunday and Monday so they've only got a 3/7 chance of their birthday being on a potential fixture day?

Yeah that's true. So the chance varies every season depending on the number of managers with birthdays on Sat, Sun & Mon and the number with other days. But then assuming a random allocation of birthday days amongst managers, you'd expect that ratio to remain pretty constant over time.
 




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