beorhthelm
A. Virgo, Football Genius
- Jul 21, 2003
- 35,332
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[Albion] Football crowds could return in September, says FA chief executive
- Thread starter Bozza
- Start date
Medwayseagull
JCB
How would that work with social distancing ? If they spread around the stadium some would have seats without arms - totally unthinkable !
Unless it’s a top six side the 1901 sections are never full to to capacity.
That's about it I suspect, too.
Regarding the testing app, apparently the one trialled in the IOW has been binned today in favour of one like the Germans have (which HMG pooh poohed initially - fancy that?
). Trouble is it is thought it will take months before we have any idea how good it is. So....September it is, then.My view has changed a lot since the early days. As posted elsewhere if you are under 50 and without a comorbidity, risk of death if you catch Covid is negligible (on a par with regular flu - maybe even less lethal). So I'd be happy to see full crowds, but with very strong warnings to the high risk folk to not attend (better than compulsion - let the people decide but, unlike the case with Brexit, with the full facts made available). The alternative is to keep the stadia almost empty till we have a vaccine. I personally am happy to 'shield' till we get a vaccine. And, no, I wouldn't risk attending a game. And although I'm 62, I'm healthy.
Cowfold Seagull
Fan of the 17 bus
Reduced leg room too, not to mention further to walk to the bar!
Totally disgraceful.
southstandandy
WEST STAND ANDY
- Jul 9, 2003
- 5,660
What Social Distancing?
This term is practically now just a soundbite. I've been in to Brighton shopping, to the supermarkets, seen the mass protests on the TV for the Black lives matter gatherings, seen the crowds on the beach at weekends etc etc etc, and it seems vast swathes of people just don't seem bothered with this anymore.
Personally I still agree in principle to this ethos but it seems from my experience recently (and maybe I'm in the minority), that I think a further 3 or 4 months down the line fans could realistically be seen back at grounds, even in limited numbers. Whether that's right is anyone's guess. We can all say we should be, and are adhering to 'Social Distancing' but in reality this is clearly being eroded week on week.
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The Large One
Who's Next?
Interesting stuff, but I am going to take it with a large pinch of salt.
If nothing else, it flies right in the face of the Premier League's thinking on fans returning to stadia. Secondly, it's on the back of a wishlist from HMG who, to my mind, are rushing things back without the science backing it up.
If nothing else, it flies right in the face of the Premier League's thinking on fans returning to stadia. Secondly, it's on the back of a wishlist from HMG who, to my mind, are rushing things back without the science backing it up.
Sorrel
Well-known member
They are obviously going to start with some fans and then after a while allow some more. But being full in any section is a long way off.
I wonder how they will determine tickets - maybe in cost order for season tickets?
I wonder how they will determine tickets - maybe in cost order for season tickets?
nicko31
Well-known member
Right now its fantasy land stuff, lets try and get through this season first.
Quite likely to have been scrapped by September - hence the suggestion
el punal
Well-known member
Answers :
1. Climb a very tall pole outside the East Stand use the zip wire to reach the West Upper - where my seat is.
2. Take your own flask (the club are allowing this in these strange times) and do your business while modestly cloaked in a re-issued Withdean poncho.
3. The club are only using the Mill Road P&R site. Double decker buses will then be used to go via Tongdean Lane and through the railway bridge by our old home. Fans are advised to duck as the bus detaches its roof and becomes an open top vehicle.
yet , deaths and new cases continue to fall.
It is just the second spike crew that still are accepting the fear thats put out
el punal
Well-known member
“Second Spike Crew” - great name for a band, or perhaps a new hooligan firm with attitude.
The Large One
Who's Next?
'Second spike crew'...?
You mean 'those who listen and respect scientific evidence from experts' - that crew?
You're in no position to lecture anyone on the social or political concept of 'Fear'.
I'm personally of the opinion that having crowds of any kind at stadiums will not happen until such a time we are able to entirely drop the concept of social distancing. Logistically, the getting to, out and back from grounds isn't going to work.
Question is, could that happen by September? I was bored, so I did a bit of 'back of fag packet maths'. The average number of new cases for the past 7 days is 1,305; for the same period in May it was 3,502 and in April it was 5,503. That means that April to May saw a decline of 36.5%, and May to June a decline of 62.7%. Ergo: not only are the cases coming down, the rate at which they are dropping is increasing (all with a backdrop of increasing test numbers)
This is a big assumption (I'll come back to this in a moment), but if that rate of acceleration in the decline of the numbers is to continue, we can expect daily cases to have dropped by 78% month-on-month by this point in July, 87% August and 93% September. Here's what that would look like.
In effect then, based on this very rudimentary model we could have practically eradicated the virus by mid-September - at least back to levels where track and trace systems can effectively contain it. Is it realistic though?
I don't have a crystal ball, but we do have countries that have had similar outbreaks to our own which are a bit further on in their recovery. So, I took a look at where those countries were a month after hitting the circa 1,300 daily cases mark. Here's how it stacks up:
Italy: 200 - 350
Spain: 250 - 400
France: 200 - 500 (their case reporting looks less consistent)
Give or take a little, they're not all that far off where my fag packet suggests they should have been. Of course, the critical part is what happens between the end of month 1 and month 3; my model assumes that the virus is fizzling out for reasons other than social distancing and that there is no second wave. I personally don't think there will be, but I am 100% a layman and I accept there is absolutely no certainty whatsoever in those two pre-requisites.
But for me it does serve as optimism that we could be back in full stadiums sooner than you might think. If not September, then maybe October. I hope I'm right*.
*Caveat: I'm usually not.
Question is, could that happen by September? I was bored, so I did a bit of 'back of fag packet maths'. The average number of new cases for the past 7 days is 1,305; for the same period in May it was 3,502 and in April it was 5,503. That means that April to May saw a decline of 36.5%, and May to June a decline of 62.7%. Ergo: not only are the cases coming down, the rate at which they are dropping is increasing (all with a backdrop of increasing test numbers)
This is a big assumption (I'll come back to this in a moment), but if that rate of acceleration in the decline of the numbers is to continue, we can expect daily cases to have dropped by 78% month-on-month by this point in July, 87% August and 93% September. Here's what that would look like.
In effect then, based on this very rudimentary model we could have practically eradicated the virus by mid-September - at least back to levels where track and trace systems can effectively contain it. Is it realistic though?
I don't have a crystal ball, but we do have countries that have had similar outbreaks to our own which are a bit further on in their recovery. So, I took a look at where those countries were a month after hitting the circa 1,300 daily cases mark. Here's how it stacks up:
Italy: 200 - 350
Spain: 250 - 400
France: 200 - 500 (their case reporting looks less consistent)
Give or take a little, they're not all that far off where my fag packet suggests they should have been. Of course, the critical part is what happens between the end of month 1 and month 3; my model assumes that the virus is fizzling out for reasons other than social distancing and that there is no second wave. I personally don't think there will be, but I am 100% a layman and I accept there is absolutely no certainty whatsoever in those two pre-requisites.
But for me it does serve as optimism that we could be back in full stadiums sooner than you might think. If not September, then maybe October. I hope I'm right*.
*Caveat: I'm usually not.
- Thread starter
- #59
Caught a bit on 5Live that suggested La Liga are targeting something like:
10-15% of capacity - before the end of the current season
30% of capacity - September
50% of capacity - December
Full capacity - January
10-15% of capacity - before the end of the current season
30% of capacity - September
50% of capacity - December
Full capacity - January