Final points this season

[BensGrandad]

If you wish you can go on to bbc.co.uk/sport and completea league based on what you believe the results will be. You could do this for the remainder of the season entereing evry game in The CCC if you so desired but it would take quite along time.

 

[Bromley shrimp]

How many more points are we and our rivals going to get this season?

Based on a strict mathematical formula that says any home team will beat any teams below it in the table and the next four teams above it, and that it will draw with the next eight above it, and lose to the rest, and working out the result equally for both current League position and current form over the last 8 games, produces these final points totals:

Plymouth 54
Millwall 44
Derby 43
ALBION 41
----------------
Sheff Wed 39
Crewe 32
Leicester 31

Leicester's problem is that they are the worst team in the League on form over the last 8 games and of their 8 remaining home games they have to play 5 of the current top 8. It's not going to finish like this of course, but it does make our home games against Leicester and Sheff Wendy must-wins....

Over to you!

The frailty of your system is that it ignores mini league upsets, which are bound to happen. For example we have to beat Millwall rather than Leeds as your system predicts, but what actually happens is the opposite and an ADDITIONAL 3 points effectively come into play, (and in this instance are lost to the Albion) which your system disrecards.

 

[paddy]

It all depends on the other teams. Lets face it, for the remainder of this season, whether we sign anoyone or not, we are still going to be a very inconsistant team. If the teams around us have got hard fixtures for the remainder of the season, we have a great chance of staying up.

 

[Reinelt 62]

Re: Re: Final points this season

The frailty of your system is that it ignores mini league upsets, which are bound to happen. For example we have to beat Millwall rather than Leeds as your system predicts, but what actually happens is the opposite and an ADDITIONAL 3 points effectively come into play, (and in this instance are lost to the Albion) which your system disrecards.

Shrimp, read what I wrote. This is not how it will end up, but a starting point. With 16 games left there are bound to be shifts in form. Teams like Southampton (1 win and 6 defeats in 7) and Stoke (no wins in 6) are both in poor form and might enter the equation. If Leicester start winning they would rapidly climb out.

Sorry, you've lost me with the Leeds argument. Correct me if I am wrong, but I seem to recall that we have played Leeds twice already this season, so unless there is a third scheduled game that I am unaware of, games against Leeds do not enter the equation any more...

 

[Reinelt 62]

50 or your doomed

It is truly depressing to see that the educational standards we associate with the slums in SE25 have spread to Lancing.

 

[paddy]

It is truly depressing to see that the educational standards we associate with the slums in SE25 have spread to Lancing.

Only some people in Lancing. Its only the people who originaly come form the slums that have a poor education - mainly because they are not allowed in our fine South Coast schools.

 

[Yorkie]

Re: Re: Re: Final points this season

Shrimp, read what I wrote. This is not how it will end up, but a starting point. With 16 games left there are bound to be shifts in form. Teams like Southampton (1 win and 6 defeats in 7) and Stoke (no wins in 6) are both in poor form and might enter the equation. If Leicester start winning they would rapidly climb out.

Sorry, you've lost me with the Leeds argument. Correct me if I am wrong, but I seem to recall that we have played Leeds twice already this season, so unless there is a third scheduled game that I am unaware of, games against Leeds do not enter the equation any more...

I think what he is saying that we tend to lose the mini league games but pull surprises out of the hat against the higher placed teams.
We did that last year.

 

[dougdeep]

Only some people in Lancing. Its only the people who original came form the slums that have poor education - mainly because their not allowed in our fine South Coast schools.

If you are going to be picky, at least you could ensure that your post is free from errors.

 

[Vanity]

If you wish you can go on to bbc.co.uk/sport and completea league based on what you believe the results will be. You could do this for the remainder of the season entereing evry game in The CCC if you so desired but it would take quite along time.

Do you have an actual link to where that is on the BBC site, I can't find it?

 

[Reinelt 62]

Re: Re: Re: Re: Final points this season

I think what he is saying that we tend to lose the mini league games but pull surprises out of the hat against the higher placed teams.
We did that last year.

Yorkie, thank you for the translation from Shrimp-Speak. The mini leagues exist more in the mind than in reality imo, and change throughout the season.

One other stat worth mentioning though, is that of our last 16 games left to play, 7 are against the bottom 8 on current form over the last 8 games (excluding ourselves of course).

In the order Team P W D L F A GD Pts Last eight results:

16 Millwall 8 2 3 3 5 8 -3 9 L L D D W W L D

17 Brighton and Hove Albion 8 3 0 5 9 17 -8 9 L W W L L L W L

18 Luton Town 8 2 1 5 10 10 0 7 L L D W L L L W

19 Derby County 8 1 4 3 11 15 -4 7 D D D L D L W L

20 Stoke City 8 2 1 5 9 14 -5 7 W W L L L D L L

21 Burnley 8 2 1 5 8 14 -6 7 L W W L L D L L

22 Southampton 8 2 0 6 5 13 -8 6 W L L L L W L L

23 Crewe Alexandra 8 0 3 5 10 20 -10 3 L D D D L L L L

24 Leicester City 8 0 2 6 6 14 -8 2 L D D L L L L L

The only one of those we have not got to play is Derby.

 

[paddy]

If you are going to be picky, at least you could ensure that your post is free from errors.

See edit.

 

[Bromley shrimp]

Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Final points this season

Yorkie, thank you for the translation from Shrimp-Speak. The mini leagues exist more in the mind than in reality imo, and change throughout the season.

One other stat worth mentioning though, is that of our last 16 games left to play, 7 are against the bottom 8 on current form over the last 8 games (excluding ourselves of course).

In the order Team P W D L F A GD Pts Last eight results:

16 Millwall 8 2 3 3 5 8 -3 9 L L D D W W L D

17 Brighton and Hove Albion 8 3 0 5 9 17 -8 9 L W W L L L W L

18 Luton Town 8 2 1 5 10 10 0 7 L L D W L L L W

19 Derby County 8 1 4 3 11 15 -4 7 D D D L D L W L

20 Stoke City 8 2 1 5 9 14 -5 7 W W L L L D L L

21 Burnley 8 2 1 5 8 14 -6 7 L W W L L D L L

22 Southampton 8 2 0 6 5 13 -8 6 W L L L L W L L

23 Crewe Alexandra 8 0 3 5 10 20 -10 3 L D D D L L L L

24 Leicester City 8 0 2 6 6 14 -8 2 L D D L L L L L

The only one of those we have not got to play is Derby.

All I'm saying is the formula is unreliabe due to it's crudity. I only used Millwall/Leeds as an example where we already knew the results not because I thought there was a third fixture looming against Leeds. I'm not saying we're more or less prone to pulling off surprises than any other team scrapping it out (Yorkie), only that it happens with surprising regularity. Finally if I have to explain mini-league, me you or both of us is on the wrong site.