[Politics] Far right party set to take power in Holland ?

[Trufflehound]

No - an example of why PR is a proper electoral system, FPTP is batshit nonsense and much of our media are utterly clueless.
Exit polls say veteran far right bigot Geert Wilders' PVV party is predicted to gain the most seats in the Dutch parliament with around 35% of the vote.
That is SHOCKING.
Cue FPTP programmed UK media trumpeting:
'FAR RIGHT WINS DUTCH ELECTION'.
No it hasn't.
I repeat: if true, their percentage is shocking. But they have benefited from the collapse of the 'moderate' Right. They have, as far as I can see, no one they can form an alliance with. The Left vote has gone up considerably too and the same polls predict that the Left and centre will have a majority.

Indeed. And just in the interests of accuracy, Wilders is currently predicted to win 37 seats in a 150-seat house, which is 25% not 35%. So "only" one in four voters picked him. Still shocking enough given the bile he spouts, but he's been knocking around there or thereabouts for two decades, so this was bound to happen eventually.

A lot of the problem here was that people were sick of the government that had ruled for the past 13 years (sound familiar), and all the other major parties were tainted by being involved in the ruling coalition at one time or other. Moreover, the Netherlands currently has a major housing crisis, and - rightly or wrongly - a lot of people seek to blame immigration for exacerbating the situation, rather than looking for a practical and sustainable solution. That current issue was weighing more heavily on most voters' minds than longer-term but important issues like climate change, something you can sort of ignore if you try, but which might actually determine whether any of us are still around in 50 years' time.

A third factor was a live TV debate earlier this week involving all the party leaders. All the others were fumbling around for answers trying their best not to tell the truth whilst not actually lying, and thus they came across as weak-minded. Wilders was direct and gave straight answers. Straight answers that were total made-up lies and bullshit of course, but as we know, as with Johnson, Trump et al, tell people whatever it is you think they want to hear boldly enough, and sufficient numbers of gullible folk will lap it up and vote for you. There were so many undecided people even at that late stage that this one event almost certainly was the clincher.

What happens now is probably down to the VVD in my opinion, and whether Wilders can change their stated minds and get them to work with him. I don't think any of the larger centre and left parties will work with him (certainly not the party I voted for yesterday, GL/PvdA, or D66, almost certainly not NSC*), so without VVD support he cannot form a majority.

Likewise, a centre-left-right coalition would also need VVD support to form a government. Probably whoever does form a government (and I sincerely hope it isn't Wilders), they will need to involve the BBB farmers' party in some way, since the BBB control the upper house, so getting any legislation passed without them will be tricky...

Hopefully the negotiations will be complicated and last the full four-year cycle, then we can vote them back out again without them causing too much damage.

(*that's New Social Contract btw, not North Stand Chat...)

 

[A1X]

What’s happened here is people had legitimate concerns personal to them and their living situations about immigration which weren’t listened to, and anyone who spoke up about these concerns were branded as racists/xenophobes/Islamophobes.

Probably because, as with this country and others, their “legitimate concerns” actually aren’t legitimate at all, they’re mostly prejudice and xenophobia.

 

[jcdenton08]

You think the PVV are a one-issue party that have swept in out of no where!?

There’s little similarity to UKIP which collapsed post-Brexit - it was always the Brexit party and primarily a political platform for Farage - once Farage left and Brexit was done, there was no real niche for them.

Wilders won votes because he toned down the anti-islam rhetoric and focussed his campaign more on tackling hot-button issues such as housing shortages, a cost-of-living crisis and access to good health care.

They’ve been on the fringe of opposition for decades - even came close in 2014 to forming a coalition government

You’ve wilfully ignored the crux of my point, again.

 

[Zeberdi]

Indeed. And just in the interests of accuracy, Wilders is currently predicted to win 37 seats in a 150-seat house, which is 25% not 35%. So "only" one in four voters picked him. Still shocking enough given the bile he spouts, but he's been knocking around there or thereabouts for two decades, so this was bound to happen eventually.

A lot of the problem here was that people were sick of the government that had ruled for the past 13 years (sound familiar), and all the other major parties were tainted by being involved in the ruling coalition at one time or other. Moreover, the Netherlands currently has a major housing crisis, and - rightly or wrongly - a lot of people seek to blame immigration for exacerbating the situation, rather than looking for a practical and sustainable solution. That current issue was weighing more heavily on most voters' minds than longer-term but important issues like climate change, something you can sort of ignore if you try, but which might actually determine whether any of us are still around in 50 years' time.

A third factor was a live TV debate earlier this week involving all the party leaders. All the others were fumbling around for answers trying their best not to tell the truth whilst not actually lying, and thus they came across as weak-minded. Wilders was direct and gave straight answers. Straight answers that were total made-up lies and bullshit of course, but as we know, as with Johnson, Trump et al, tell people whatever it is you think they want to hear boldly enough, and sufficient numbers of gullible folk will lap it up and vote for you. There were so many undecided people even at that late stage that this one event almost certainly was the clincher.

What happens now is probably down to the VVD in my opinion, and whether Wilders can change their stated minds and get them to work with him. I don't think any of the larger centre and left parties will work with him (certainly not the party I voted for yesterday, GL/PvdA, or D66, almost certainly not NSC*), so without VVD support he cannot form a majority.

Likewise, a centre-left-right coalition would also need VVD support to form a government. Probably whoever does form a government (and I sincerely hope it isn't Wilders), they will need to involve the BBB farmers' party in some way, since the BBB control the upper house, so getting any legislation passed without them will be tricky...

Hopefully the negotiations will be complicated and last the full four-year cycle, then we can vote them back out again without them causing too much damage.

(*that's New Social Contract btw, not North Stand Chat...)

Good summary

 

[Zeberdi]

You’ve wilfully ignored the crux of my point, again.

eh? Again?

The crux of your post was that this was a ‘flash in the pan’ success from a short-lived party and Wilders campaigned on purely anti-islamic rhetoric- it isn’t - the PVV has been hovering on the edges of power for decades - and he didn’t -he greatly toned the ant-islamic messaging down - or did you mean something else?

 

[Ali_rrr]

What happens now is probably down to the VVD in my opinion, and whether Wilders can change their stated minds and get them to work with him. I don't think any of the larger centre and left parties will work with him (certainly not the party I voted for yesterday, GL/PvdA, or D66, almost certainly not NSC*), so without VVD support he cannot form a majority.

Well summarised. One thing though:


Omzigt has said is not ruling it out. I think he will join to be honest. They aren't worlds apart on immigration either.

Omtzigt kiest woorden zorgvuldig, maar sluit Wilders niet uit: ‘Wij zijn beschikbaar voor het landsbestuur’

NSC-leider Pieter Omtzigt heeft in een eerste reactie op de verkiezingsuitslag laten weten dat zijn partij beschikbaar is voor het landsbestuur. Hij sluit de PVV van Geert Wilders niet bij voorbaat uit.

www.volkskrant.nl

 

[jcdenton08]

Probably because, as with this country and others, their “legitimate concerns” actually aren’t legitimate at all, they’re mostly prejudice and xenophobia.

This is the very reasoning which causes people to vote for extreme options. Like when Brown dismissed a woman on the campaign trail as a “bigoted woman” for asking a perfectly reasonable question any politician should be able to easily field.

The point is in certain towns which change entirely, yes, due to immigration (legal or otherwise), you’re left with people who are disillusioned with their personal circumstances which, frankly, someone who hasn’t lived in their shoes can’t relate to at all.

People in towns like Burnley and Dover have seen massive changes in their economy, property prices and unemployment rates due to cheap EU labour, for example. Might not mean anything to you and can be very easy to bracket them all as “racists” but then we’ve not seen our towns change with a direct effect on our own standard of living.

This is what the comfortably well-off “I’m alright Jack” southern voter doesn’t understand. It’s actually a very Tory mindset to be honest.

 

[The Clamp]

This is the very reasoning which causes people to vote for extreme options. Like when Brown dismissed a woman on the campaign trail as a “bigoted woman” for asking a perfectly reasonable question any politician should be able to easily field.

The point is in certain towns which change entirely, yes, due to immigration (legal or otherwise), you’re left with people who are disillusioned with their personal circumstances which, frankly, someone who hasn’t lived in their shoes can’t relate to at all.

People in towns like Burnley and Dover have seen massive changes in their economy, property prices and unemployment rates due to cheap EU labour, for example. Might not mean anything to you and can be very easy to bracket them all as “racists” but then we’ve not seen our towns change with a direct effect on our own standard of living.

This is what the comfortably well-off “I’m alright Jack” southern voter doesn’t understand. It’s actually a very Tory mindset to be honest.

Plus northerners are really prejudiced and xenophobic so it’s a perfect storm really.














I jest.

 

[Trufflehound]

Well summarised. One thing though:


Omzigt has said is not ruling it out. I think he will join to be honest. They aren't worlds apart on immigration either.

Omtzigt kiest woorden zorgvuldig, maar sluit Wilders niet uit: ‘Wij zijn beschikbaar voor het landsbestuur’

NSC-leider Pieter Omtzigt heeft in een eerste reactie op de verkiezingsuitslag laten weten dat zijn partij beschikbaar is voor het landsbestuur. Hij sluit de PVV van Geert Wilders niet bij voorbaat uit.

www.volkskrant.nl

Even if NSC change their minds, I think he'll still struggle to get a majority without VVD backing.

There's a nice little swingometer tool here where you can plug in your own parties and see how they can (or cannot) form a government: https://app.nos.nl/nieuws/tk2023/

Without VVD (and assuming GL/PvdA, D66 and SP stick to their guns), he'd need to involve half a dozen minor parties, which would be ungovernable...

If he is going to be the next PM, then it has to be a PVV-VVD-NSC-(and possibly BBB for the reasons stated above) coalition. It's the only workable combination...

 

[Ali_rrr]

Even if NSC change their minds, I think he'll still struggle to get a majority without VVD backing.

There's a nice little swingometer tool here where you can plug in your own parties and see how they can (or cannot) form a government: https://app.nos.nl/nieuws/tk2023/

Without VVD (and assuming GL/PvdA, D66 and SP stick to their guns), he'd need to involve half a dozen minor parties, which would be ungovernable...

I'm curious about the VVD's intentions, whether or not they will choose to stay in opposition and wait for the inevitable collapse.

I'm more scared of the FvD having any say in politics than anything else.

 

[RandyWanger]

Fair play to them, the previous government f***ed about and found out. Bill will have to try steal someone else's farms now

 

[Trufflehound]

I'm curious about the VVD's intentions, whether or not they will choose to stay in opposition and wait for the inevitable collapse.

I'm more scared of the FvD having any say in politics than anything else.

I think FvD are a spent fringe force. A lot of people who voted for them in the past did so as a protest vote, and aren't as extreme as Baudet thinks they are. They have all switched to "still pointy-headed but slightly less extreme" alternatives like BBB and PVV.

 

[Trufflehound]

I'm curious about the VVD's intentions, whether or not they will choose to stay in opposition and wait for the inevitable collapse.

I'm more scared of the FvD having any say in politics than anything else.

Out of interest, did you (or any of the other NL-based NSC'ers for that matter) get a vote yesterday, or am I the only one with Dutch nationality?

 

[shingle]

There's no sugar coating this one I'm afraid, for 'liberal' Holland to lurch to the 'far right' something is happening over there, as it is all over Europe.

Don't forget that it wasn't that long ago that Geert Wilders was banned from entering the Uk, and he might soon be visiting here as Dutch PM.

 

[beorhthelm]

Probably because, as with this country and others, their “legitimate concerns” actually aren’t legitimate at all, they’re mostly prejudice and xenophobia.

maybe the politicans explained and sold the benefits of migration, encourage and educate people to not fear. instead of beating them with a "you're stupid" stick, which just reinforces their sense of being unheard and unrepresented by centre politics, driving them to the right.

 

[Trufflehound]

There's no sugar coating this one I'm afraid, for 'liberal' Holland to lurch to the 'far right' something is happening over there, as it is all over Europe.

Don't forget that it wasn't that long ago that Geert Wilders was banned from entering the Uk, and he might soon be visiting here as Dutch PM.

The concept that the Netherlands is 'liberal' has always been bullshit. It might be true of Amsterdam and some of the other bigger cities (which incidentally, voted overwhelmingly for GL/PvdA, the Green-Socialist alliance), but like in the UK, the majority of people who live in the smaller towns and villages are mostly conservative and fearful of change...

 

[The Clamp]

The concept that the Netherlands is 'liberal' has always been bullshit. It might be true of Amsterdam and some of the other bigger cities (which incidentally, voted overwhelmingly for GL/PvdA, the Green-Socialist alliance), but like in the UK, the majority of people who live in the smaller towns and villages are mostly conservative and fearful of change...

I think the Dutch, for good reason, have largely had a very, very dim view of the far right for 80 or so years.

 

[Hugo Rune]

No - an example of why PR is a proper electoral system, FPTP is batshit nonsense and much of our media are utterly clueless.

Yes, FPTP is utterly antiquated and wretched but this election is a great example of the limitations and pitfalls of PR. Way too much choice allowing the far right populists to sneak in by being the loudest and most offensive.

A modern and advanced preferential voting system is much better than both PR and FPTP. It protects a country against extremism in much the same way as FPTP but makes sure the majority’s least favourite option does not get in (57.6% of the electorate did not vote Tory in the last election and did not want them in).

 

[Trufflehound]

I think the Dutch, for good reason, have largely had a very, very dim view of the far right for 80 or so years.

A lot of people here would vociferously agree with you on that, but at the same time they will spew anti-Islamic nonsense without thinking about it, they believe innocently, and not see the connection...

 

[Kinky Gerbil]

WTF, was that decided on a Crodo poll? I missed that.

Do you want more Mrs Browns Boys or to work with PVV