[Albion] Fab OUT

[BadFish]

I do find a lot of people who tweet during games contribute, if I managed to get enough signal or could be bothered to get my phone out to tweet what I thought during a game, I think it would be described as Toxic, but I generally keep that to myself, and have a beer on the train home and rationalise it. surely 90 minutes during the football is enough time to stop browsing social media for once. Far too many just say their opinion without a second thought during the game, and realise what stupid thing to say that was in hindsight (reaction to Webster mid game at Chelsea for example).

Thank god we don't have anyone doing one of those watch along things.

Wait, we don't do we?

 

[Withdean11]

I do wonder if we will go back in for Mckenna once Ipswich have gone down. He was clearly Blooms first choice last summer

 

[jackalbion]

Thank god we don't have anyone doing one of those watch along things.

Wait, we don't do we?

I have yet to see one

 

[Stato]

A couple of points I still want to vent somewhere...

Schooled by Ruud Van F***ing Nistlerooy, for what may be Leicester's last point of the season.

What was the point in signing Cashin if he doesn't even get a look in as 5th choice... It was Leicester at home... f***ing Leicester!

We can't score because we've coached the instinct out of the players. They receive the ball and consider their options: control, movement, look for others in better position, consider defender's position, consider goalkeeper's position, consider angle, shoot(?) cross(?) check wind, look for overlap, consider kicking foot and stride, wait-aren't I meant to pass it back if there are 3 defenders, or is that 4? CHANCE GONE. (Or half hearted cross-shot due to too much thought.)

A year ago these players just kicked the damn thing at the goal. It's not the players it's the coaching.

It's so slow and predictable, not to mention for the most part a dreadful watch. I know RDZ got a bit t**t like towards the end but at least I felt a modicum of excitement watching it. Besides comparing the two is pointless to a point, this season we supported FH with a £200M war chest, the season before we sold our crown jewels.

I have no doubt whatsoever we'd be sat where Forest are if RDZ had been here this season. Maybe it's just Potter Mk2 and he'll come good, before getting too big for his boots and believing he's special to leave us in the lurch before being found out elsewhere, where they'll likely have far less patience with his incompetence. Comes across as a nice bloke though.

OUT



...don't bother replying to tell me I'm wrong, as I don't give a ****.

I know you said don't, but you were so wrong, it was impossible to resist.

He wasn't 'schooled' by RVN. It was a draw. FH's side were dominant for most of the match, had an Xg above 4 and should have won at a canter. Conceding the second goal from a set piece after missing all of those chances knocked the stuffing out of the team and allowed Leicester the upper hand for twenty minutes. Nothing to do with FH's tactics. Nothing to do with RVN's tactics.

We've signed Cashin on a five year contract. We'll find out whether it was a good move. Brighton's record at developing and improving players should probably allow them a bit of trust that they might know how best to do it. One thing not in the manual is probably: 'Chuck the player out if he's not immediately ready'.

We can still score. We scored twice on Saturday and we are currently on 51 goals this season with six games remaining. We scored 55 over the whole of last season. We've scored an average of 1.8 goals per game over the last ten matches. We had 13 different EPL goalscorers last year. We already have 15 this year. Players in the Leicester game did shoot. We hit the bar and the post and missed more than a few decent chances, but not through hesitation.

A year ago Pedro, Welbeck and Mitoma had all scored less goals than they did this season. They've all already exceeded the number of league goals they scored last season. Rutter and Minteh also have five each, so that gives us five players who've scored more than five goals. Last year we had four.

RDZ's good season with us saw him inherit a squad of mature players. FH has arrived at a different point in the cycle. We have spent >£200m on investments that we hope will be worth more than we paid for them, not on players who are proven as the finished article.

I still love the madman, but had RDZ been our manager this season, his toys would have been out of the pram at the injury list and he would probably have gone off moaning to the media about why Bloom wouldn't spend another £200m in January to make up for the broken ones. It seems clear that he's a great manager when things are going his way, but that his volatility is a hindrance in tough times. Potter didn't get too big for his boots. He saw the prize and grabbed it. If he had been too big for his boots, he would have been talking to the press about whether he'd have to get assurances from the chairman before deciding whether he'd be lowering himself and seeing out his contract at Brighton, you know, like RDZ did.

Tony Bloom invests in talent and looks for market advantage. He is a patient man who didn't sell Alexis Mac Allister back to Argentina when he didn't immediately dominate EPL midfields, or sell Moises Caicedo off to some lower European league when he didn't shine in the Jupiler. He has set up a football organisation that clubs across the world both envy and want to replicate. He extended Potter's contract very early on because he could see that the numbers were there and that the results should eventually follow. He understands that coaches, like players, have the capacity to learn and improve. Even finishing where we are currently would see FH's newly assembled, young and inexperienced side battle through the worst injury record in the division to achieve Brighton's third highest finish in the club's history.

It would be my guess that Mr Bloom will be looking at long term trends. He will have the understanding that the likes of Nottingham Forest are enjoying the kind of 'nothing can go wrong' season that Sheffield United experienced in their first EPL year under Wilder. It took only a couple of key parts to go missing for it all to turn to dust. Our young and inexperienced manager has had a baptism of fire in terms of injuries. He's come through fairly admirably and will almost certainly be given the opportunity to build. It's the Brighton way.

 

[Dorset Seagull]

Pedant alert
Out of interest I think the xG of 4 for the Leicester game is misleading. The 2 pens were worth an xG of about 1.6 but the chances that were created for those pens would have been significantly lower. I imagine the more accurate xG for the match would have been nearer 2.8.

 

[Stato]

Pedant alert
Out of interest I think the xG of 4 for the Leicester game is misleading. The 2 pens were worth an xG of about 1.6 but the chances that were created for those pens would have been significantly lower. I imagine the more accurate xG for the match would have been nearer 2.8.

That's a fair enough critique of Xg's handling of penalties, but it's not unique to that game. Wouldn't fair comparison make it necessary to apply the same logic across all matches that featured penalties and this would negate most of the apparent requirement for a reduction?

 

[Bozza]

Pedant alert
Out of interest I think the xG of 4 for the Leicester game is misleading. The 2 pens were worth an xG of about 1.6 but the chances that were created for those pens would have been significantly lower. I imagine the more accurate xG for the match would have been nearer 2.8.

1.52-1.56 - a Premier League penalty is 0.76-0.78 per most models I've seen.

1.8 for two penalties would (somewhat obviously) be 0.9 each, and 90% of penalties are not scored.

But, yes, penalties - particularly more than one in a game - inflate xG markedly.

A few of us kicked this about on another thread a few days back. In short, I said that we, as fans, dramatically over-estimate conversion rates of chances.

The one I used as an example was O'Riley's header which he put wide. From memory that xG was c0.25, so a 1-in-4 chance. I imagine many of us were saying something like "he just HAS to be scoring that".

 

[Ooh it’s a corner]

1.52-1.56 - a Premier League penalty is 0.76-0.78 per most models I've seen.

1.8 for two penalties would (somewhat obviously) be 0.9 each, and 90% of penalties are not scored.

But, yes, penalties - particularly more than one in a game - inflates xG markedly.

A few of us kicked this about on another thread a few days back. In short, I said that we, as fans, dramatically over-estimate conversion rates of chances.

The one I used as an example was O'Riley's header which he put wide. From memory that xG was c0.25, so a 1-in-4 chance. I imagine many of us were saying something like "he just HAS to be scoring that".

And I’m not sure that missed header was included in the main highlights packages, including the clubs, so it can’t quire have been as much of a certain goal as many of us thought at thetime

 

[Flounce]

I do find a lot of people who tweet during games contribute, if I managed to get enough signal or could be bothered to get my phone out to tweet what I thought during a game, I think it would be described as Toxic, but I generally keep that to myself, and have a beer on the train home and rationalise it. surely 90 minutes during the football is enough time to stop browsing social media for once. Far too many just say their opinion without a second thought during the game, and realise what stupid thing to say that was in hindsight (reaction to Webster mid game at Chelsea for example).

True, I never post if I am at the game but I tend to pass comment at half time if I am watching on TV. Not sure I’ve ever posted OUT though I have certainly thought it on a few occasions this season. I have not warmed to Fab and his boring comments and I really can‘t work out what the ”process” is. However although I am often on the fence (as per currently) I accept that this is a project and there have been some games where we look quality (or should I say some “halves” where we look quality, seldom do we look good for 90 mins+, is that the manager or that we have a young team that can’t yet do 90 mins at this level)

I did notice that Villa were capable of coming back from a horrendous start last night, I wonder if that is because they have so many experienced players who clearly believe in their “process”. With my Albion hat on I thought they were going to be on the end of a hammering when they conceded the second.

 

[jackalbion]

True, I never post if I am at the game but I tend to pass comment at half time if I am watching on TV. Not sure I’ve ever posted OUT though I have certainly thought it on a few occasions this season. I have not warmed to Fab and his boring comments and I really can‘t work out what the ”process” is. However although I am often on the fence (as per currently) I accept that this is a project and there have been some games where we look quality (or should I say some “halves” where we look quality, seldom do we look good for 90 mins+, is that the manager or that we have a young team that can’t yet do 90 mins at this level)

I did notice that Villa were capable of coming back from a horrendous start last night, I wonder if that is because they have so many experienced players who clearly believe in their “process”

I think you have summed up the same view as myself really on the subject of Fabian, its very much how I feel. I'm intrigued what the summer brings, and I do think some people have never given him a choice because he isn't a certain Italian. I think some of the problems we have as well are not solely down to the manager.

 

[Bozza]

I think you have summed up the same view as myself really on the subject of Fabian, its very much how I feel. I'm intrigued what the summer brings, and I do think some people have never given him a choice because he isn't a certain Italian. I think some of the problems we have as well are not solely down to the manager.

RDZ was a lovable lunatic who took the club to heights few thought possible.

He was flawed, of course - most geniuses are - but he was a very tough act for anyone to follow.

Pretty much every manager in world football would seem dull after De Zerbi.

 

[Flounce]

I think you have summed up the same view as myself really on the subject of Fabian, its very much how I feel. I'm intrigued what the summer brings, and I do think some people have never given him a choice because he isn't a certain Italian. I think some of the problems we have as well are not solely down to the manager.

Well I am not going into the last 6 games this season hoping the manager fucks off, as I did at this stage last season

It won’t bother me too much though if TB decides he doesn’t much like the “process” and has another manager change lined up.

 

[jackalbion]

Well I am not going into the last 6 games this season hoping the manager fucks off, as I did at this stage last season

It won’t bother me too much though if TB decides he doesn’t much like the “process” and has another manager change lined up.

Definitely agree with that, but I'm not certain there's many options out there we'd go for that will improve us (maybe, maybe Rosenior) but for now, I think we should stick rather than twist.

 

[Greg Bobkin]

I do find a lot of people who tweet during games contribute, if I managed to get enough signal or could be bothered to get my phone out to tweet what I thought during a game, I think it would be described as Toxic, but I generally keep that to myself, and have a beer on the train home and rationalise it. surely 90 minutes during the football is enough time to stop browsing social media for once. Far too many just say their opinion without a second thought during the game, and realise what stupid thing to say that was in hindsight (reaction to Webster mid game at Chelsea for example).

Or post on NSC! I know that's the point of a messageboard, but once you've committed your feelings or opinions to print, it's potentially there forever! Hence why people get so sniffy about being called out for something they've written in the heat of the moment.

 

[Flounce]

Definitely agree with that, but I'm not certain there's many options out there we'd go for that will improve us (maybe, maybe Rosenior) but for now, I think we should stick rather than twist.

Maybe, but I’d never heard of Potter, RDZ or FH until we were rumoured to be signing them.

I tell a lie, I was aware of GP as his Swansea side came close to beating City in the Cup, but that was the sum total of my knowledge of him.

 

[Greg Bobkin]

I do wonder if we will go back in for Mckenna once Ipswich have gone down. He was clearly Blooms first choice last summer

Why? It's not like WE are going down like Ipswich. The truth is no-one knows exactly what went on in the recruitment process and, more importantly why. And there is no guarantee that McKenna would've done any better than Fab this season.

It would be mad, IMO, to recruit someone to a job, support them through it for less than a year and then go back to one of the other original candidates for the job and effectively start all over again! Unless something seriously went wrong or there was a clash of personalities or people (neither of which look like the current situation at BHAFC), no-where in work would that happen.

 

[Flounce]

Why? It's not like WE are going down like Ipswich. The truth is no-one knows exactly what went on in the recruitment process and, more importantly why. And there is no guarantee that McKenna would've done any better than Fab this season.

It would be mad, IMO, to recruit someone to a job, support them through it for less than a year and then go back to one of the other original candidates for the job and effectively start all over again! Unless something seriously went wrong or there was a clash of personalities or people (neither of which look like the current situation at BHAFC), no-where in work would that happen.

In fairness to Fab, he has taken setbacks on the chin and I haven‘t heard a single gripe about injuries or lacking players he’d like us to sign. He seems to onboard with what TB sees as his “process”. That is a big plus imo.

I would hate us to bin Fab for McKenna who would be out the door as fast as possible if he had us challenging and a bigger team came in for him, especially if it was United. He is also alleged to be on a salary that is not even close to what TB would pay imo.

 

[pigmanovich]

McKenna has really not covered himself in glory this season IMO, Ipswich get no credit from me for consistently looking like the least likely of the promoted sides to go down only to ultimately make staying up fairly easy for Wolves. I know there are structural factors that make surviving your first season in the PL a tall order, increasingly so, but I think he will have regrets about the campaign.

 

[Bozza]

McKenna has really not covered himself in glory this season IMO, Ipswich get no credit from me for consistently looking like the least likely of the promoted sides to go down only to ultimately make staying up fairly easy for Wolves. I know there are structural factors that make surviving your first season in the PL a tall order, increasingly so, but I think he will have regrets about the campaign.

Agreed - feels to me as though McKenna's stock has fallen somewhat this season.

 

[Don Tmatter]

Itll be an interesting Summer window for sure, whoever’s in charge when it opens, were we to lose JPvH, Baleba, Mitoma &/or Joao Pedro, and IF we are to ship out Buonanotte, Barco & Enciso that’s a considerable hole out of the 1st team squad ready players and no matter if quality replacements are found it would hardly be conducive to challenging for a European place next season.

As an aside, where we’ve been told previously the manager’s position here is one of the most attractive in Europe, it doesn’t seem to have been quite the case when we’ve poached from other clubs 2 of our last 3 managers