David Cameron's non-appearance at the leadership debates...

[DTES]

Why is there this assumption the Greens will attack Labour? I'm sure they will "attack" but I don't see any evidence to suggest they will single Labour out.

The bottom line for me is Cameron is destroying the NHS, presiding over a failed economy and is totally incoherent with his immigration policy. These are the issues and knows he will have Labour, Lib, Greens and UKIP all gunning for him and is running scared.

I don't think they'll attack Labour any more than the other parties, but it's definitely Labour votes they are after. The best tactic to get them though might be to attack the Tories even more aggressively than Labour are doing, saying they offer the only genuine, radical alternative (which I guess kind of is an attack on Labour).

They might win some votes from the Lib Dems, but I suspect that anyone who's going to walk away from the Lib Dems has already done so. I don't see anyone jumping from Tory to Green, and they're so polar opposite of UKIP that that would be a very odd switch (bar those that just want somewhere to register a protest vote) so their best bet is to take left wing votes from Labour.

 

[Herr Tubthumper]

I don't think they'll attack Labour any more than the other parties, but it's definitely Labour votes they are after. The best tactic to get them though might be to attack the Tories even more aggressively than Labour are doing, saying they offer the only genuine, radical alternative (which I guess kind of is an attack on Labour).

They might win some votes from the Lib Dems, but I suspect that anyone who's going to walk away from the Lib Dems has already done so. I don't see anyone jumping from Tory to Green, and they're so polar opposite of UKIP that that would be a very odd switch (bar those that just want somewhere to register a protest vote) so their best bet is to take left wing votes from Labour.

Buzzer!

 

[Herr Tubthumper]

I don't think they'll attack Labour any more than the other parties, but it's definitely Labour votes they are after. The best tactic to get them though might be to attack the Tories even more aggressively than Labour are doing, saying they offer the only genuine, radical alternative (which I guess kind of is an attack on Labour).

They might win some votes from the Lib Dems, but I suspect that anyone who's going to walk away from the Lib Dems has already done so. I don't see anyone jumping from Tory to Green, and they're so polar opposite of UKIP that that would be a very odd switch (bar those that just want somewhere to register a protest vote) so their best bet is to take left wing votes from Labour.

I know they're gunning for Clegg's seat, which others are they targeting?

 

[Pavilionaire]

Watch PMQ then.

When Cameron's in PMQ he is surrounded by his cronies and backbenchers baying for Miliband's blood, and he's feeding off it. That is totally different to standing alone on stage under the scrutiny of the world's media.

 

[TimWatt]

As usual- it's nearly always worse than you think.
If he's going to be accused on ducking the debates (which he has every right to) Cameron could always organise some other stunt to draw attention to himself.
Let's face it his party has 3x the advertising spend of labour and he's shameless enough to use the murders of cartoonists and attended a marches for freedom of the press to announce policies to further restrict free expression.

The error was by OFCOM in refusing a platform for the greens - and the argument about national parties also being excluded is false since there are scheduled debates in Scotland, Wales etc where they will be invited.

TV Debates only happened once before and as predicted it marginally counted Against the favourite and doesn't change opinions very much.

My prediction is that greens will take votes mostly off liberal voters - but some Tories and labour but it will be very variable by constituency, depending local area strength.

So maybe a few MPs mostly in South and West with some surprises.
Rather than from or to any party though a bigger issue is the non-aligned that don't see themselves as voters for any one party - perhaps the majority?

UKIP are going for the disengaged voters but there are many first time voters and comfortably disengaged - these may vote green - and there could be big local swings to green.
There may be surprises and plenty of twists- bs the TV debates are near the end of that...

 

[DTES]

I know they're gunning for Clegg's seat, which others are they targeting?

The Greens, you mean? They're going for the other Sheffield seat, Sheffield Central which is currently Labour. Their targets, according to the Guardian, are:

Norwich South (Lib Dem)
Bristol West (Lib Dem)
St Ives (Lib Dem)
Sheffield Central (Labour)
Liverpool Riverside (Labour)
Oxford East (Labour)
Solihull (Lib Dem)
Reading East (Tory)
York Central (Labour)
Holborn & St Pancras (Labour)
Cambridge (Lib Dem)
Brighton Pavilion (Hove Born & Bred Party) (ok, maybe not)

I agree that plenty of those are Lib Dem - but my point is that the Lib Dem vote has already collapsed. They aren't fighting the Libs for those seats - they're fighting Labour to mop up the votes that are walking (or have already walked) away from the Lib Dems.

Edit: source: http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2014/oct/18/green-party-general-election-12-seats-england

 

[Norman Potting]

........It's essentially a dance recital for bellends.

Love it - wish they would just do a Harry Hill style "fight" whilst dressed in ludicrous costumes and using custard pies and crazy foam. Probably be just as much use and more fun.

Essentially is now seems to be "who's lies do I find the most believable" (awaits apostrophe police).

 

[Danny-Boy]

This was always likely to happen. Neither Camern nor Miliband really want the debates. Both are terrified at having to go up against Farage. The trick for both is that they have to appear keen while finding reasons to bail. Cameron's rationale is as good as any. The Greens have a sitting MP and parity with the LibDems in several polls. As such, they would seem to have as much right as UKIP to be a part of the debates.

It's a risky strategy for Cameron but probably not as risky as letting Farage have a platform in a debate. He'll remember the kick Clegg got in the polls after the last debates.

I'd be surprised if he turns up and I would still expect Miliband to find a way out too.

This. Cameron knows his support will be vulnerable from his "loonies and fruitcakes", just as Clegg will suffer from the Greens. Both Cameron and Miliband will want to squeeze the LD vote even more, and in particular their sitting MPs.

Just as well Miliband doesn't have to worry about Gorgeous George and "Respect" these days, there's no real Socialist Party out there now. And without a spokesman like Bob Crow to get on the mdia..

 

[TimWatt]

Fair enough. But you could say they are after those that voted libdem in 2010 - and don't forget polls only represent intended at the time the poll is taken.
As suggested though the greens have a targeted strategy much like the libdems in 2010, the outcome of which is highly unpredicatble, more so than labour and conservative 'carpet bombing'

 

[beorhthelm]

What a mess.

Ofcom have made their decision and if they back down then they look weak and lacking judgment.

it wasnt a decision, it is draft guidance. they can change it, or the TV companies can run with the Greens anyway. if anything, Miliband banging on about it has made the position more difficult as people are led to believe as you that its set and that someone has to back down.

in the end, empty chairing the PM and leader of one of the major parties isnt going to actually harm his party much in the polls - less so than a poor performance.

 

[Danny-Boy]

I don't think they'll attack Labour any more than the other parties, but it's definitely Labour votes they are after. The best tactic to get them though might be to attack the Tories even more aggressively than Labour are doing, saying they offer the only genuine, radical alternative (which I guess kind of is an attack on Labour).

They might win some votes from the Lib Dems, but I suspect that anyone who's going to walk away from the Lib Dems has already done so. I don't see anyone jumping from Tory to Green, and they're so polar opposite of UKIP that that would be a very odd switch (bar those that just want somewhere to register a protest vote) so their best bet is to take left wing votes from Labour.

My assessment is that those LD MP's who have a good local standing may get in with a personal vote, I'm thinking about places like Colchester, and maybe one locally... but any LD marginals and some like Clegg's where there will be a big "personality" protest over student fees will be vulnerable. The Greens really pulled one (Brighton) seat in 2010 by concentrating on it nationally, how much resources they can devote to fighting a large number spread across the country will be interesting to see. The university vote might help.

 

[TimWatt]

Another I've just noticed with Caroline Lucas is her focus at the moment seems to be - in addition to green issues like transport - on women's issues.
Perhaps she's not really trying to hit on those spending time on NSC so much!

 

[seagullsovergrimsby]

I know they're gunning for Clegg's seat, which others are they targeting?

Labour are after Sheffield Hallam.

 

[Pavilionaire]

it wasnt a decision, it is draft guidance. they can change it, or the TV companies can run with the Greens anyway. if anything, Miliband banging on about it has made the position more difficult as people are led to believe as you that its set and that someone has to back down.

in the end, empty chairing the PM and leader of one of the major parties isnt going to actually harm his party much in the polls - less so than a poor performance.

Do you really believe that the Tory party won't suffer if there's an empty chair next to Nigel Farage come the first TV debate? He will annihilate Cameron for not being there and make a case for him being weak and spineless, regardless of whether it is justified. Many viewers will tune in just to see the carnage unfold, and every laugh at Cameron's expense will be several more thousand votes for UKIP.

Farage will have a ready-made supply of gags and, if he's on his game, he'll get the other leaders to join in the fun.

And even leaving aside Farage, Nick Clegg will look positively presidential as he'll be the senior government figure on the stage and be able to take the credit for all the good stuff the coalition have achieved, so if he plays it right the Lib Dem position will also improve.

What IS Cameron thinking?

 

[Questions]

I've decided that I will watch the live debates if they ALL state that they wont turn up.

 

[dibsy]

I thought the first TV debate is just Miliband and Cameron, the second includes Clegg and the third includes Farage, so he should only not turn up for the last one surely?

 

[beorhthelm]

Farage will have a ready-made supply of gags and, if he's on his game, he'll get the other leaders to join in the fun.

it isnt Have I got News For You, he can make a couple of references to it, but if they start make every topic about Cameron's absence the public will switch off (metaphorically and literally). they will be accused of using it to deflect from lack of policy. i do agree that it give Clegg an opportunity to take alot of credit.

whats barmy is they've taken such polarising position in the first place, starting with Cameron mis-judged responce. he should has said he would ask Ofcom to revisit putting the Greens in, and the others should have said the same - it doesnt look great that they rather try to embarrass through an empty podium than advocate another minority party should join in. its sums up our politcs, score points rather than address real issues with actual solutions.

 

[The Birdman]

Is this going to turn out to be one of the worst decisions in modern politics?

Why can't the Greens be on this stage I agree with DC although I hope the Torys win the green seat in Brighton as well as keep Hove And Kemp Town. We need to pay this country's debts off for our children sake and with the extra money look after our NHS andageing population and me in my retirement ! Just watched PM questions DC walked all over Millaband.

 

[Herr Tubthumper]

What IS Cameron thinking?

If he doesn't turn up the leader of the nation looks like a shitter
If he turns up and the Greens don't he looks like a bull-shitter
If he turns up and the Greens do he'll get battered by 4 different parties.


Some have suggested it was a shrewd move

 

[Pavilionaire]

it isnt Have I got News For You, he can make a couple of references to it, but if they start make every topic about Cameron's absence the public will switch off (metaphorically and literally). they will be accused of using it to deflect from lack of policy. i do agree that it give Clegg an opportunity to take alot of credit.

whats barmy is they've taken such polarising position in the first place, starting with Cameron mis-judged responce. he should has said he would ask Ofcom to revisit putting the Greens in, and the others should have said the same - it doesnt look great that they rather try to embarrass through an empty podium than advocate another minority party should join in. its sums up our politcs, score points rather than address real issues with actual solutions.

I get the impression the public think Cameron should be up on stage and if he's not there then he'll be fair game for a ribbing. What makes you think there won't be plenty of fun poked at Cameron - the TV audience for HIGNFY is the same one that watches these debates. Boris Johnson showed that you can go far if you can combine comedy and politics.

Farage is a man of the people, he'll recognise this and I think he will go on the attack because I think he'll actually be quite angry at what Cameron has done.