Civil War Brewing in the Ukraine?

[Czechmate]

So what are you suggesting are the probable outcomes if a) the EU doesn't invest in the Ukraine, and b) if it does?

Well don't know if I am honest , looks like Russia has pulled out the investment as I know a teacher who lives in East Ukraine has to work but at the moment is not being paid and is not sure when she will be , she can't afford to stop work because she will lose her job altogether and they are very hard to come by . I can't see Putin investing in Kiev at the moment , not sure if the Americans will invest , but the East detest and are very weary about the US . Personally at the moment I think the country may split come May , not just Crimea but East Ukraine and West Ukraine once the elections have happened but Kiev has to be very careful it can't be a viable country on it's own without outside investment . If the EU does invest then the country I think will split .
Just my opinion with the help of some inside information from East Ukraine !

 

[Uncle Buck]

The Turks still have the right to close the straits, that could cause the Russians a few issues.

I suspect the reality of any further intervention into Ukraine, would lead to Poland asking for NATO forces to protect their borders, so having NATO troops closer to Russia than in a long time.

 

[SULLY COULDNT SHOOT]

So you think he'll stop if he's threatened? What threats do you think are needed to make him stop?

No... I wont be led by your rope. I am not in a position to make a decision on which threats to use because I am not in position of all the facts. In this part of the world we are used to Putins methods though so if you think that going down the same path as 1938 is the right path by all means go ahead. You dont have to agree with me. But politics so often takes its lesson from bringing up kids. Kids who know where the line is drawn are happier than when the line keeps being re-drawn. I believe a line needs to be drawn very soon or this will spiral as in 1938.

Will he stop if threatened? I don't know. But will we ever know if we don't are or we so afraid that we just keep letting him rebuild the Russian Empıre?

 

[Triggaaar]

Well don't know if I am honest , looks like Russia has pulled out the investment as I know a teacher who lives in East Ukraine has to work but at the moment is not being paid and is not sure when she will be , she can't afford to stop work because she will lose her job altogether and they are very hard to come by

Is the Ukraine not capable of funding itself (in the long term)?

No... I wont be led by your rope.

You already said "it is clear that he's is going to keep pushing until soemone threatens him..." so you clearly think he should be threatened.

I am not in a position to make a decision on which threats to use because I am not in position of all the facts.

Indeed, which is why I was surprised you were so sure that the solution is to threaten Putin.

In this part of the world we are used to Putins methods though so if you think that going down the same path as 1938 is the right path by all means go ahead.

I haven't given an opinion on what is the right path. Plenty of people know more about the situation than I do, and I'm interested to hear what they think should be done.

But politics so often takes its lesson from bringing up kids. Kids who know where the line is drawn are happier than when the line keeps being re-drawn. I believe a line needs to be drawn very soon or this will spiral as in 1938.

It's a lot easier with kids. We have control over our kids, and they know this. We don't have control over Russia, and Putin knows this, so it's a lot harder to give him a line and stick to it. Also, giving him a line automatically tells him he can have everything he wants up to that line.

Will he stop if threatened? I don't know. But will we ever know if we don't are or we so afraid that we just keep letting him rebuild the Russian Empıre?

Fair enough. And perhaps that is what's happening behind the scenes. It would be easier for Putin to back down if the threats are kept secret. If the threats are made public, he'll lose face if he backs down.

 

[Bold Seagull]

No... I wont be led by your rope. I am not in a position to make a decision on which threats to use because I am not in position of all the facts. In this part of the world we are used to Putins methods though so if you think that going down the same path as 1938 is the right path by all means go ahead. You dont have to agree with me. But politics so often takes its lesson from bringing up kids. Kids who know where the line is drawn are happier than when the line keeps being re-drawn. I believe a line needs to be drawn very soon or this will spiral as in 1938.

Will he stop if threatened? I don't know. But will we ever know if we don't are or we so afraid that we just keep letting him rebuild the Russian Empıre?

I only just caught up with Niall Ferguson's 'The Pity of War' on iPlayer last night, with the pertinent question being left, would we recognise those tiny signs now that led to the catastrophic mistakes resulting in world war then. It was certainly alarming given this programme aired last Friday without recourse to the simultaneously unfolding events in Ukraine.

Well worth a watch if no one saw it. I suspect many people will disagree with Niall Ferguson's thesis, but his arguments make compelling viewing.

 

[franks brother]

France has surrendered
http://hitthewoodline.com/satura/2014/3/3/france-surrenders-to-russia

 

[SULLY COULDNT SHOOT]

I'm interested why u find the idea of threatening so risky. Do u think chamberlain was right? Putins plan has been clear to us all along an she has already achieved it. What message do we send if we do nothing. He has no intention of pulling out and if we don't manage to remove him the lesson he learns is that he can do it again what does that make of UN/ NATO? How does it show we have changed since 1989? R we even able to defend ourselves. I am not a.

 

[Czechmate]

France has surrendered
http://hitthewoodline.com/satura/2014/3/3/france-surrenders-to-russia

Probably because Russia has two warships being built by the French at the moment

 

[sparkie]

I'm interested why u find the idea of threatening so risky. Do u think chamberlain was right? Putins plan has been clear to us all along an she has already achieved it. What message do we send if we do nothing. He has no intention of pulling out and if we don't manage to remove him the lesson he learns is that he can do it again what does that make of UN/ NATO? How does it show we have changed since 1989? R we even able to defend ourselves. I am not a.

You are so right. No one is talking of declaring war on Putler, just a wall of resolve and commitment, with sufficient military backup, so he knows it's simply not worth it to march further into Ukraine as he pleases.

 

[vegster]

It was incredibly brave or foolhardy for those unarmed Ukrainian troops to march up to their base and confront the armed " peace keeping " units firing over their heads, who had illegally taken their base.

 

[Driver8]

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-26442381

Hmmmmm....

 

[Triggaaar]

I'm interested why u find the idea of threatening so risky. Do u think chamberlain was right? Putins plan has been clear to us all along an she has already achieved it. What message do we send if we do nothing.

So you're saying we should do something. Great. What?

 

[sparkie]

It was incredibly brave or foolhardy for those unarmed Ukrainian troops to march up to their base and confront the armed " peace keeping " units firing over their heads, who had illegally taken their base.

The Ukrainian Commander asking the Russian soldier if he was really going to shoot at the Soviet flag was a piece of history that will be remembered.

 

[sparkie]

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-26442381

Hmmmmm....

Actually it had been planned for months. The Russians and Americans always give the other advance notice of ballistic missile launches so as there arn't any 'misunderstandings' that a nuclear strike has been launched.

 

[HovaGirl]

No... I wont be led by your rope. I am not in a position to make a decision on which threats to use because I am not in position of all the facts. In this part of the world we are used to Putins methods though so if you think that going down the same path as 1938 is the right path by all means go ahead. You dont have to agree with me. But politics so often takes its lesson from bringing up kids. Kids who know where the line is drawn are happier than when the line keeps being re-drawn. I believe a line needs to be drawn very soon or this will spiral as in 1938.

Will he stop if threatened? I don't know. But will we ever know if we don't are or we so afraid that we just keep letting him rebuild the Russian Empıre?

And get into a position where he can hold the West to ransom by denying them access to the fuel Russia now provides them with. Utter stupidity on the part of the West to give Russia such an Ace card.

 

[HovaGirl]

For over 700 years western Ukraine was part of Poland and later Austria-Hungary. The European roots are there in the majority of recorded history. The Soviet control of these areas only happened after WWII.

Well, Russia made a grab for Ukraine in about 1753. (Germany and Austria-Hungary made careers out of trying to squeeze Poland off the map.) The Crimean War of 1854 and the Charge of the Light Brigade was one of the outcomes.

 

[HovaGirl]

I know it just kicks the can down the road for 30 years, but perhaps the splitting off of the former country of Galicia to become an independent state fast tracked into the EU gives a decent solution for now. Not sure that is on the table.

That would involve taking a great chunk out of south-eastern Poland as well, which was also part of Galicia.

 

[HovaGirl]

Aren't the US and UK legally obliged to assist with defending the borders of Ukraine? World War 3 anyone?

Something like that. The UK (and other countries) have Treaty obligations, otherwise, Treaties are useless and any totalitarian leader can do what he likes and invade where he likes. That's why we had to defend Poland in 1939. The rumblings and diplomatic posturings going on at the moment are frighteningly reminiscent of the noises made just before war was declared in WWI and WWII.

 

[HovaGirl]

After all that bulls*** Putin spouted about Syria, he now decides to do this. What a Wan*er.
As far as I am concerned the EU should cut Russia off until he decides to stop being a c**t.

Cockweasel of the highest order

If we cut Russia off, we lose our coal and gas supplies from Russia.

 

[HovaGirl]

The Americans won't stand for this, it is only they who are allowed to invade and occupy states.

Don't be facaetious. This is serious.