But that is only to do with betting patterns.Betting Market still has us to finish at least 6pts above Huddersfield ( was an 8pt margin 3 games ago ).
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But that is only to do with betting patterns.
Nothing to do with our "7" point lead, the quality of our squad, our form and the nature of our remaining fixtures....
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Not according to the sages of NSC.On the contrary, all of that has been 'priced in'.
Toon 4/11
Us 2/1
100/1 bar
And for a top 2 finish...
Toon 1/100
Us 1/33
I think us at 2-1 to win the league is a good bet.
TB
Us 1/14, Bet365.And for a top 2 finish...
Toon 1/100
Us 1/33
Toon 4/11
Us 2/1
100/1 bar
And for a top 2 finish...
Toon 1/100
Us 1/33
Those odds surprise me.
IF you agree with their top 2 odds, then they've are effectively assuming that us and Newcastle are guaranteed to be the top two. If that is the case, and looking at the respective run-ins, then 2/1 on the Albion nicking top spot is very generous.
I think 2-1 is about right. Those odds dictate a 1 in 3 chance. We are only a point behind with a favourble run in
I tend not to bet on the Albion, but if I did, those odds would look tasty to me:
Matching the games in pairs:
BHA v Brum
NU v Burton
(IMO) Easiest fixture on paper: NU
QPR v BHA
v NU
Easiest fixture on paper: BHA
Wolves v BHA
NU v Leeds
Easiest fixture on paper: BHA
BHA v Wigan
Ipswich v NU
Easiest fixture on paper: BHA
Norwich v BHA
PNE v NU
Easiest fixture on paper: NU
Cardiff v NU
BHA v Bristol C
Easiest fixture on paper: BHA
Villa v BHA
NU v Barnsley
Easiest fixture on paper: NU
Therefore, I think we edge it in terms of the fixture list, but need 2 points to overhaul them. I think we might come up just short but surely 2/1 grossly underestimates our chance of the title?
Norwich v BHA
PNE v NU
Easiest fixture on paper: NU
Preston drew at home to Forest on Saturday. Head to head, I'd take their game against Preston rather than ours away to Norwich all day long.Not convinced about that: PNE are not only a point ahead of Norwich but are much more consistent. Norwich had a storming start and fell away, the exact opposite of Preston
I tend not to bet on the Albion, but if I did, those odds would look tasty to me:
Matching the games in pairs:
BHA v Brum
NU v Burton
(IMO) Easiest fixture on paper: NU
QPR v BHA
v NU
Easiest fixture on paper: BHA
Wolves v BHA
NU v Leeds
Easiest fixture on paper: BHA
BHA v Wigan
Ipswich v NU
Easiest fixture on paper: BHA
Norwich v BHA
PNE v NU
Easiest fixture on paper: NU
Cardiff v NU
BHA v Bristol C
Easiest fixture on paper: BHA
Villa v BHA
NU v Barnsley
Easiest fixture on paper: NU
Therefore, I think we edge it in terms of the fixture list, but need 2 points to overhaul them. I think we might come up just short but surely 2/1 grossly underestimates our chance of the title?
I've just done the same thing on a fag packet but arbitrarily assigned an extra point or two where the expected difference in difficulty is greater, and I've got us coming out level on points, but only after Newcastle extend their lead to being 4 points clear of us after the next three games. So I DO fancy a nibble on us to win now, but I'm going to wait until after Wolves I think.