[Politics] By Elections x2

[Kuipers Supporters Club]

Key aspect here is boundary changes. I think its very likely Mid Sussex for example goes to the Dems as the constituency changes mean less well off villages in the Ashdown Forest - they've all gone to Uckfield and East Sussex - and a constituency more focused around Burgess Hill and Haywards Heath which both went orange in the council elections in May.

Current MP and DWP Minister Mims Davies has already jumped ship to run over in Uckfield and East Sussex, which looks the safer Blue seat on paper now.

Concur with Hastings, Worthing and Crawley - not sure about Lewes and Eastbourne, was a three way run off last time between Tories, Labour and Lib Dem, if Labour are on for as strong a majority as last night's results suggest, reckons that's the sort of seat that goes red.

She's done another chicken run? Hilarious and also pathetic.

 

[Mellor 3 Ward 4]

Horsham'll be the last bastion of blue locally. My dad used to say they'd vote in a baboon just because it had a blue arse

It recently elected a LibDem Council for the first time in a generation

 

[A1X]

The next elections will be interesting in Sussex. It seems very likely that Hastings, Worthing and Crawley would go Labour, Lewes and Eastbourne Lib Dem.

Given the results in the recent local elections, constituency boundary changes and the remain voting professional demographics of these constituencies, is there a realistic chance that Horsham and Mid Sussex could choose Lib Dem?

I'm not sure whether, or how, the boundary changes are impacting the seats, but how that falls could be key. Generally the actual "towns" (Horsham, Haywards Heath, East Grinstead etc.) are proper Tory vs Lib Dem battlegrounds, as most of the population tend to be the classic commuter / London forced out types. What tips the balance is the outlying rural areas (I believe in one election (possibly 2005) West Grinstead returned a 98% Conservative result). If they've been rejigged then they could be game on.

 

[A1X]

Interesting…i can’t remember when there last was a Labour MP locally

Outside Brighton, there was one in Crawley for a while at the height of the Blair years but not sure I can remember one more recently than that.

 

[Gabbiano]

I'm not sure whether, or how, the boundary changes are impacting the seats, but how that falls could be key. Generally the actual "towns" (Horsham, Haywards Heath, East Grinstead etc.) are proper Tory vs Lib Dem battlegrounds, as most of the population tend to be the classic commuter / London forced out types. What tips the balance is the outlying rural areas (I believe in one election (possibly 2005) West Grinstead returned a 98% Conservative result). If they've been rejigged then they could be game on.

Effectively, the chunk north of Haywards Heath and east of Pease Pottage, which was split between Horsham and Mid Sussex, is now moving to a new constituency (E Grinstead and Uckfield - crossing East and West Sussex, which was previously resisted).

This area votes pretty strongly Tory, and the result is two constituencies focused more on the towns of Horsham, Haywards Heath and Burgess Hill. It'll be interesting to watch.

The South Down areas within Horsham District are in the Arundel and South Downs constituency which is about as solid blue as it's possible to get.

 

[Weststander]

I’d say

Effectively, the chunk north of Haywards Heath and east of Pease Pottage, which was split between Horsham and Mid Sussex, is now moving to a new constituency (E Grinstead and Uckfield - crossing East and West Sussex, which was previously resisted).

This area votes pretty strongly Tory, and the result is two constituencies focused more on the towns of Horsham, Haywards Heath and Burgess Hill. It'll be interesting to watch.

The South Down areas within Horsham District are in the Arundel and South Downs constituency which is about as solid blue as it's possible to get.

I’d say that will be a Tory win.

Last night was in a big way due to Tories staying at home. No matter the worst of the two main parties, at GE’s the loyalists turn out.

I reckon 150 Tory wins.

 

[JackB247]

Erm these “less well off villages” is where I live and I see a lot of nice cars and people getting Waitrose deliveries, I think these villages will probably stay Tory unfortunately.

Apologies, poor grammar from myself Ted, I was very much suggesting that these villages are well off and therefore likely to stay Tory!

 

[HeaviestTed]

Apologies, poor grammar from myself Ted, I was very much suggesting that these villages are well off and therefore likely to stay Tory!

“Less well off” in terms of attitude maybe

 

[Gwylan]

Outside Brighton, there was one in Crawley for a while at the height of the Blair years but not sure I can remember one more recently than that.

Hastings and Rye was Labour from 1997 until 2010 when Amber Rudd won it

 

[Guinness Boy]

Sunak is a wolf in sheep's clothing. He continues to push the far right agenda of that wing of the party more than willingly, but tries to present himself as the reasonable and sensible face balancing the various factions of the Tories.

All he has to do is not be a bumbling fool like Johnson or Truss. Luckily the public seem to see through it.

It's a shame that Starmer and Labour have taken the approach of "stand back and watch them implode" rather than taking the initiative and building political standpoints of their own. I guess it makes sense given how divided their own support is post Brexit but it's hardly inspiring.

Labour needs votes from both Leave voting ex-industrial heartlands, and Remain voting multicultural metropolises. That's a hard balance to find, hence the wishy washiness that were seeing.

And that, in a nutshell, is why we had a Brexit referendum and why, now, no Brexit is Brexity enough.

It was all about an existential threat to the Tories. They took something that split their vote between them and UKIP and made it so that it split the population along liberal attitudes rather than traditional class based votes, giving Labour an instant headache.

We are now left with a floundering, divided Tory party with a government to the right of Genghis Khan and an opposition who are headed for government, but will have a massive headache staying there. Rather than, say, controlling our borders and extra cash for the NHS which mysteriously seems to have vanished.

 

[Audax]

I assume that Australia still has a constituency system? STV is better but not full PR is it?

STV is a version of full PR. And yes, the lower house is constituency using AV.