Britain facing 100 days of heavy snow in the worst winter since 1947. [Daily Express]

[Papa Lazarou]

Ok, this IS only the GFS model run, so not the complete picture, BUT, there isn't even the hint of snow down here in the next two weeks. For snow to be shown there will be a little symbol along the bottom with a percentage chance, based upon the 20 ensemble members. So currently none of them fancy it at any time.



And looking at temperatures, as they've spoken about us developing a cold pool under high pressure.



Nothing showing there.

Let's just say, with my rational, fact based approach to forecasting, I can see no indicators that their story is likely to come to pass.

 

[vegster]

Ok, this IS only the GFS model run, so not the complete picture, BUT, there isn't even the hint of snow down here in the next two weeks. For snow to be shown there will be a little symbol along the bottom with a percentage chance, based upon the 20 ensemble members. So currently none of them fancy it at any time.

View attachment 49389

And looking at temperatures, as they've spoken about us developing a cold pool under high pressure.

View attachment 49390

Nothing showing there.

Let's just say, with my rational, fact based approach to forecasting, I can see no indicators that their story is likely to come to pass.

Bugger..... Papa, do you know where I can get a fairly cheap dining table and four chairs from ? seeing as 2 hours ago I smashed them up for much needed firewood .

 

[LamieRobertson]

Bugger..... Papa, do you know where I can get a fairly cheap dining table and four chairs from ? seeing as 2 hours ago I smashed them up for much needed firewood .

should have bought up copies of the express and burnt that..its about all its good for

 

[rcf0712]

If only the UK weather was as predictable as it is here in WA - for the imminent test match debacle at the WACA, in the unlikely event it goes to 5 days, we're expecting and will most probably therefore get 39, 36, 36, 35 and 36 - cooling down nicely there on day 4......

 

[dougdeep]

Do you remember the experts predictions for last summer?

 

[Mo Gosfield]

If only the UK weather was as predictable as it is here in WA - for the imminent test match debacle at the WACA, in the unlikely event it goes to 5 days, we're expecting and will most probably therefore get 39, 36, 36, 35 and 36 - cooling down nicely there on day 4......

I wouldn't concern yourself with day 4 at the WACA.
England 192 and 238. Australia 277 and 154-5. Job done at 5.14pm on day three. Three up with two to play.

 

[OzMike]

Just got a forecast here for 2 weeks of above 30 and getting above 40 on some days, that really is not funny.

 

[jimhigham]

Serious question but how far ahead can forecasters realistically predict? I thought that beyond five days out it really does get a little fuzzy.

 

[RandyWanger]

To me, that sounds like an amazing winter! Wish we had 100 days of snow forecasted. Currently sat here looking up the Bossons glacier to Mt Blanc and seeing too many trees and rocks We;ve not had any decent snow for 2 weeks and the weather forecast is sunshine for another 2.
Send it our way please!

 

[casbom]

Serious question but how far ahead can forecasters realistically predict? I thought that beyond five days out it really does get a little fuzzy.

Correct, however even then for some weather scenarios you can't really predict with any confidence more than 3 days in advance! So at the moment the fuzzy predictions up to Xmas would be no snow around here, however the weather has a habit of making fools out of Forecasters at the best of times!

 

[vegster]

Just been out to the car and I have noticed that one of my Dahlias is still growing fairly well. Dahlias obviously don't read The Daily Express either.

 

[Papa Lazarou]

Correct, however even then for some weather scenarios you can't really predict with any confidence more than 3 days in advance! So at the moment the fuzzy predictions up to Xmas would be no snow around here, however the weather has a habit of making fools out of Forecasters at the best of times!

The converse is where you have a relatively stable synoptic pattern, similar to what we have currently; in those situations it's possible to predict general weather patterns some way out (not specifics though).

As we are currently we have a large high pressure over us and the near continent.




This looks like it will establish over Europe in the coming days, at which point it will continue to be topped up by ridges from the Azores high being pushed Eastwards by the jet to the north. It's a very stable setup, with a strong and cohesive Polar Vortex. It's the default setup for many of the winters mid 90s to early 2000s. Stable in setup, with weather ranging from Anticyclonic (like today) to wet and windy (when the high retreats over Europe).

I'd anticipate 10 days ot 2 weeks of this sort of weather, with the high retreating SE at times to allow rain to reach us, followed by a re-inforcement from trhe Azores and drier periods, with frost / fog possibly returning. The mildest weather will mostly be to the far NW, but it'll never be that cold, especially in terms of upper air.

 

[HawkTheSeagull]

Its now their SIXTH spectacularly wrong prediction this Winter - yet people still fall for it.

Basically, unless their source is the Met Office, just ignore it.

 

[Papa Lazarou]

Its now their SIXTH spectacularly wrong prediction this Winter - yet people still fall for it.

Basically, unless their source is the Met Office, just ignore it.

According to the Express, November was going to be the worst in living memory, December was going to be Arctic with deep snow even in the South, and somehow from now until the end of the winter we've still got to cram in 100 days of snowfall. (which is over 3 month's worth).

 

[vegster]

According to the Express, November was going to be the worst in living memory, December was going to be Arctic with deep snow even in the South, and somehow from now until the end of the winter we've still got to cram in 100 days of snowfall. (which is over 3 month's worth).

I just wish that once in a while they would hold their hands up and admitted that they got things badly wrong. If Cameron had got up in the commons and said " prepare for the worst winter since 1947, stockpile food and candles, and don't be shy about eating your plumpest child in a crisis " and then it never happened, the newspapers would give him hell.

 

[goldstone]

According to the Express, November was going to be the worst in living memory, December was going to be Arctic with deep snow even in the South, and somehow from now until the end of the winter we've still got to cram in 100 days of snowfall. (which is over 3 month's worth).

I never read the rag, but don't any of their readers ever write in to the editor to ask what is wrong with their weather predictions?

 

[Billy the Fish]

It's a wonder they're actually allowed to print this stuff when it's so clearly a blatant lie. Surely if enough people complained they'd get a slap on the wrist and told to stop doing it.

 

[Papa Lazarou]

I never read the rag, but don't any of their readers ever write in to the editor to ask what is wrong with their weather predictions?

I'm sure they do, but i doubt /she cares. It sells papers.

 

[Curious Orange]

Jonathan Powell, forecaster for Vantage Weather Services

... and here is the reason not to believe a word of the article.

A quick Google of Jonathon Powell Vantage brings up all sorts of interesting articles about this chap and his wild claims!

http://www.theguardian.com/environm...aily-express-weather-forecast-jonathan-powell
http://www.northdevonjournal.co.uk/...s-8220-worst/story-19934266-detail/story.html
http://www.newstatesman.com/blogs/media/2012/08/dont-trust-daily-expresss-weather-reports

(yes, even the North Devon Journal have twigged the charlatan)

 

[casbom]

The converse is where you have a relatively stable synoptic pattern, similar to what we have currently; in those situations it's possible to predict general weather patterns some way out (not specifics though).

As we are currently we have a large high pressure over us and the near continent.


View attachment 49392

This looks like it will establish over Europe in the coming days, at which point it will continue to be topped up by ridges from the Azores high being pushed Eastwards by the jet to the north. It's a very stable setup, with a strong and cohesive Polar Vortex. It's the default setup for many of the winters mid 90s to early 2000s. Stable in setup, with weather ranging from Anticyclonic (like today) to wet and windy (when the high retreats over Europe).

I'd anticipate 10 days ot 2 weeks of this sort of weather, with the high retreating SE at times to allow rain to reach us, followed by a re-inforcement from trhe Azores and drier periods, with frost / fog possibly returning. The mildest weather will mostly be to the far NW, but it'll never be that cold, especially in terms of upper air.

Spot on Papa, I didn't want to say for sure what was going to happen for the next couple of weeks, after agreeing saying you couldn't predict more than 5 days! Yes it's a horrible pattern for coldies