[Albion] Apparently 8th place "still gets Europe", if...

[Flounce]

At least Forest are almost injury free

As they have been pretty well all season

 

[oldboyroy]

Brighton play anything like the way they did against Liverpool and Spurs could play their entire squad and still get a pasting,

I’m infinitely more confident about Brighton than Forest this weekend.

Oops, that's done it. Spurs will play their best game of the season and we'll get hammered

 

[Brian Munich]

Sorry mate your memory is adrift. The video shows the state of play with the Reading fans celebrating on the pitch believing we'd drawn at Forest when we were actually still playing

Correct that Reading fans thought we’d drawn, but they knew that we’d gone 2-1 ahead with minutes to go. What they incorrectly thought had happened was that Forest had then equalised (due to a Radio 5 Live miscommunication). It was only when the scoreboard came on that they realised Forest hadn’t equalised.

The two games finished at almost exactly the same time. In fact, Reading almost took the lead about 30-40 seconds after Ulloa had scored and continues to press for a winner for around 3-4 mins full in the knowledge of what was happening at Forest.

 

[Bodian]

Who gives a fuk??

It was in relation to the comment that because Spurs have just won a cup - they'll be out partying and not in a fit state to play well on Sunday. I was merely pointing out that teams can also win a cup and be on a high for the next game. That's why I give a fuk - because I'd rather Spurs didn't replicate that thanks.

 

[Shaktarman]

I’ve just calc’d the fractional odds of the scenarios required, which is as follows:

BHA fail to get a point at spuds (0.24 probability) AND Brentford win at Vulvas (0.38 probability) - combined probability is 0.09 giving 1.09 fractional odds.

Forest to beat Chelsea and Chelsea beat RB is a 3.2 x 1.8 acca paying 5.76.

Villa failing to get a point at Man U is a 0.22 probability giving 1.22 odds.

Newcastle failing to get at point at home to Everton is a 0.095 probability giving 1.095 odds.

The above all combines to give an acca paying £8.40 per £1 stake. It’s not impossible, but it’s still an outside bet dominated by Forest and Chelsea results.

Chelsea don’t need to beat RB in 90 so those odds aren’t right. You just need them to lift the trophy which is shorter odds.

 

[Brian Munich]

Chelsea don’t need to beat RB in 90 so those odds aren’t right. You just need them to lift the trophy which is shorter odds.

You’re right. That reduces overall acca by a factor of 0.8. We’ll be down to even money soon enough!

 

[Mellotron]

Correct that Reading fans thought we’d drawn, but they knew that we’d gone 2-1 ahead with minutes to go. What they incorrectly thought had happened was that Forest had then equalised (due to a Radio 5 Live miscommunication). It was only when the scoreboard came on that they realised Forest hadn’t equalised.

The two games finished at almost exactly the same time. In fact, Reading almost took the lead about 30-40 seconds after Ulloa had scored and continues to press for a winner for around 3-4 mins full in the knowledge of what was happening at Forest.

Will never LIKE them as a club but will always feel a small amount of debt to the fact that Burnley - already promoted with nothing to play for - turned into prime AC Milan defensively that day. They withstood an absolute barrage from Reading.

 

[saafend_seagull]

You’re right. That reduces overall acca by a factor of 0.8. We’ll be down to even money soon enough!

As already included by me here. It’s 4.5/1 effectively when you factor in the chance of Brentford not winning.

 

[Shooting Star]

To save me from reading several pages, what has to happen this weekend for us to get Europe?

 

[Hotchilidog]

To save me from reading several pages, what has to happen this weekend for us to get Europe?

Forest need to beat Chelsea, we need to get a point and Chelsea need to win the Conference League

 

[Joey Jo Jo Jr. Shabadoo]

Forest need to beat Chelsea, we need to get a point and Chelsea need to win the Conference League

Villa need at least a point too.

 

[Iggle Piggle]

Forest need to beat Chelsea, we need to get a point and Chelsea need to win the Conference League

And Villa need a point or more at Man U

 

[Brian Munich]

As already included by me here. It’s 4.5/1 effectively when you factor in the chance of Brentford not winning.

Yes, don’t forget to factor the 1.4 for Chelsea needing to win the the EC though!

 

[Brian Munich]

Forest need to beat Chelsea, we need to get a point and Chelsea need to win the Conference League

Although we only need a point if Brentford beat Vulvas.

 

[The Maharajah of Sydney]

As already included by me here. It’s 4.5/1 effectively when you factor in the chance of Brentford not winning.

View attachment 202455

More like 6/1 than 9/2

1.25 Draw / Villa (1/4)
1.22 Draw / Albion (2/9)
3.25 Forest (9/4)
1.40 Chelsea to lift trophy (2/5)
---
6.93

14% chance of Conference League

 

[Brian Munich]

Will never LIKE them as a club but will always feel a small amount of debt to the fact that Burnley - already promoted with nothing to play for - turned into prime AC Milan defensively that day. They withstood an absolute barrage from Reading.

Yes they did. As per previous, I flicked over once we’d scored to watch the last 4-5 mins of their game, and the way they were defending you’d have thought that it was them that needed a draw to make the play offs.

Have always admired Dyche for the the professional way he had his team approaching the game that day.