[Albion] Apparently 8th place "still gets Europe", if...

[tstanbur]

Why do we need Newcastle to get a point - they're above Chelsea on GD? Surely if both lose, Newcastle would need to get absolutely pumped by Everton at St James to finish below?

Exactly. Even in the very unlikely scenario that happens and Chelsea finish 6th and Newcastle 7th then it doesn't make a difference to what we need.

 

[Machiavelli]

I’ve just calc’d the fractional odds of the scenarios required, which is as follows:

BHA fail to get a point at spuds (0.24 probability) AND Brentford win at Vulvas (0.38 probability) - combined probability is 0.09 giving 1.09 fractional odds.

Forest to beat Chelsea and Chelsea beat RB is a 3.2 x 1.8 acca paying 5.76.

Villa failing to get a point at Man U is a 0.22 probability giving 1.22 odds.

Newcastle failing to get at point at home to Everton is a 0.095 probability giving 1.095 odds.

The above all combines to give an acca paying £8.40 per £1 stake. It’s not impossible, but it’s still an outside bet dominated by Forest and Chelsea results.

Take out Newcastle (see above posts), that becomes £7.66 if my maths is correct.
It doesn't look too bad for a punt but, as you say, the two Chelsea results are most likely to scupper us -- as the odds make clear.

 

[oldboyroy]

Our resilient home form has given us hope at the end of the day. Those unlikely comebacks v Spurs, Man City and injury time winners v Man United, Fulham, and West Ham changed our season.

Could be looked at that way I agree.

 

[Berty23]

I thought if Newcastle finish 7th and Chelsea 6th then we get the conference league whether Chelsea win conf league or not. Is that wrong?

 

[oldboyroy]

I thought if Newcastle finish 7th and Chelsea 6th then we get the conference league whether Chelsea win conf league or not. Is that wrong?

Nope. Chelsea still have to win conference league

 

[Chicken Run]

Apparently not as the tannoy was telling people to get off ...... !

ohh