[Albion] Hughton has "gone for it" but has just been unlucky

Arkwright · Feb 28, 2019

Guy Fawkes said:
So if all you players that play in one particular are injured at once (say left wing) do you put a squad member in, even if it leaves us very weak in that position? or do you adapt the formation to get to one that best suits the players we have available playing in positions that play to their strengths?

While I can see where you are coming from, surely the January window gave us the opportunity to strengthen in positions where we didn't have suitable cover. I hate singling players out but Locadia clearly isn't a CH style wide player as he doesn't track back and cover his full back. WIth injuries and suspensions we should have got cover in a couple of positions instead of having a squad which is two players short meaning as I mentioned before we are shoehorning players in and changing a system that was relatively successful.

father_and_son · Feb 28, 2019

To my mind it is as if Chris, whilst waiting for the start of WHC, read a number of posts/threads about his safety first 4-4-1-1, boring but effective at grinding out points style and decided to please the moaners of NSC by playing a more ambitious 4-3-3 attacking game just to entertain the NSC faithful. It has, through bad luck in terms of ref decisions, injuries and the like to have cost us momentum and a few points but the tracker says we remain on target so it's time to wind back the entertain and play the run-in in ugly boring survival mode.

Stat Brother · Feb 28, 2019

4-3-3 doesn't work with Murray.

I think CH might have had better 'luck' if Andone, with his mobility and pace, could have established himself as a Premier League footballer.

Guy Fawkes · Feb 28, 2019

Trelford Mills Guide Dog said:
I think our wide players, especially Locadia, seem to struggle defensively in a 4-3-3, and leave our full backs exposed. This draws other players out of position (to cover) and creates gaps in front of our defence, leading to opportunities for the opposition (more so than in a 4-1-4-1).

Agreed, yet some can't see this and decide (unfairly) that the defender is completely to blame and not good enough, calling for them to be dropped, etc..... because they fail to grasp that very point

For example, they often want Bong to go out to the player who has the ball when they are countering on us. This would leave a massive space inside where they have players making runs and would make it very easy to bypass him and drag him out of defence, making it even more likely that we'd concede.

Trying to cover both players and still protect the goal (even if it means retreating back toward the penalty area) through positioning, even if it does allow the wide player space is the correct way to play it in that scenario but some fans see that as poor defending because they seemingly think football is all about rushing about and flying in all over the place and little thought is given to tactics and what is the right way to deal with the situation

Bernardo struggled away to West Ham once they made their substitutions, because he too was left facing a player out wide (Antonio) and a player inside him (Arnautovic)
who could be passed the ball at any time and if Bernardo had committed himself and gone out to the wide player, then he'd be caught out of position and the goal left exposed. We actually looked stronger defensively against these 2 once Bong came on even though he faced the same problems yet he (Bong) gets a lot of criticism for actually doing the right things, if he wasn't doing the right thing, don't you think Hughton, a former international and top flight defender who have managed league football teams for a number of years would have spotted this and tried to address it?)

On the flip-side we have more players in advanced positions and seem to be creating more attacking chances, but either come up against goal-keepers putting in heroic displays, and / or have left our shooting boots at home.

There are still times we get in good positions out wide but haven't got enough in the middle to hit, but it is definitely better than before.

It's a trade-off, and i think it's just a bit of bad fortune that we haven't got more points whilst playing this way, especially as we've had performances where we'd definitely deserved more from the game and hopefully our fortunes will change and this will start to pay off very soon

Steve in Japan · Feb 28, 2019

Another old chestnut, but undeniably true, dear Bozza OP.

There really is only one set of stats that matter. And it's not crosses, or expected goals (whatever that latter stat means).

Guy Fawkes · Feb 28, 2019

Steve in Japan said:
Another old chestnut, but undeniably true, dear Bozza OP.

There really is only one set of stats that matter. And it's not crosses, or expected goals (whatever that latter stat means).

However they are useful as they can be used to help to show that things are no where near as bad as some are making out, offering encouragement that we will reach safety and that is a reason to keep the faith.

If these stats were very low, and the players looked like they had given up and going through the motions, then yes i'd be worried about relegation, but these figures show that they haven't given up, that we are still fighting hard and trying to succeed in our goal that was set for this season in the summer, to stay in the division. (some fans comments seem to give the impression that they believe we should have been challenging for European places this season and that spending a big fee for us, but a smallish fee for players in this division, should mean we should've signed world beaters, rather than what we'd actually got, useful but not necessarily flair players for this division)

Mellotron · Mar 1, 2019

I think the bigger concern is it feels like we’re conceding s lot more. Do the stats bear this out?

lasvegan · Mar 1, 2019

As has been said, hindsight is a wonderful thing. I think we believed we were “safe” long before we were and screwed around with the formation before we were ready. Now we are suffering the consequences.

That being said, I still think we’ll get the 3 wins needed to keep us up.

Nobby · Mar 1, 2019

Hughton has "gone for it" but has just been unlucky

Based on “Expected Goals”, our expected points at the end of December were 21.5. We actually had 25 points.

At Christmas, I think there was a common view, that Albion were slightly lucky to have won a few 1-0 games. At that stage we were 4.5 points above where we “expected” to be.

Burnley were in 18th place, on 15 points, but were “expected” to have 17. So we were expected to be 4.5 points above 18th.

Currently, we have 27 points, 2 points above 18th place, Cardiff. We are 0.5 points behind where we are “expected” to be, with Cardiff 2 points behind. So we are expected to be level on points with Cardiff currently.

I think then, that these stats represent the fact that Albion were “lucky” to have 25 points at Christmas but that we have dropped back to roughly our correct position.

Also, we actually score what we are expected to score currently, which hasn’t changed since Christmas.
As for goals conceded, 4 LESS than expected at Christmas which hasn’t changed at this stage.

Lies, damn lies etc.

Just for the bedwetters pre Saturday, Huddersfield are 9.0 points below where they are “expected” to be, so have been incredibly unlucky so far.

southstandandy · Mar 1, 2019

Can't just keep continually saying we were 'unlucky' or the opposition keeper played a 'blinder' which seems to be the case most weeks. Convinced you make your own luck and we just haven't been good enough this season.

What frustrates me is that like most on here I felt we had a stronger squad this season, but it looks highly likely we will end up with less points than last season (although I still think we'll just survive). I wasn't expecting a top 8 finish but was hoping we could push on towards mid-table. On our current form I'd take 17th place now.

Dolph Ins · Mar 1, 2019

Our stats from away matches have been a lot better than 4.4.1.1 unfortunately our results haven't.

Bozza · Mar 1, 2019

southstandandy said:
Can't just keep continually saying we were 'unlucky' or the opposition keeper played a 'blinder' which seems to be the case most weeks. Convinced you make your own luck and we just haven't been good enough this season.

What does "make your own luck" actually mean?

Good enough for what?

southstandandy said:
What frustrates me is that like most on here I felt we had a stronger squad this season, but it looks highly likely we will end up with less points than last season (although I still think we'll just survive). I wasn't expecting a top 8 finish but was hoping we could push on towards mid-table. On our current form I'd take 17th place now.

Do you really think we don't have a stronger squad than last season?

I think the cup run has indicated very clearly that we have a stronger squad. In each of these games, we've made wholesale changes to the side that has been featuring in League games, yet nearly every player that has featured has, for us, considerable Premier League experience.

I think you can certainly make a case that our starting XI is no stronger than last year, and with the additions made some disappointment there is valid. But suggesting our squad is no stronger - nah I'm not having that.

Hugo Rune · Mar 1, 2019

Really thought we were very good against Leicester but at this level, you need to finish.

That performance was the polar opposite of Burnley at the Amex, they took any chance that was given (except one) and had some decisions given to protect their lead. But they won and we didn’t.

It does not matter how well you play, it’s about sticking the ball in the net more times than the opposition.

Worried Man Blues · Mar 1, 2019

The main problem is our big money signings haven't been used to the full potential or aren't good enough. This is the problem area of not taking enough of our chances, GM had an unbelievable run which was likely to and did come to an end. Hughton seems like a nice man.

BUTTERBALL · Mar 1, 2019

Bozza said:
Over the course of our current poor sequence of results, there have been comments suggesting Hughton is defensive, negative, plays for draws and it's his fault we have been floundering.

That is at odds with my view that we have played well for long spells in games, created decent chances but just not converted them. We've only picked up 2 points from Leicester, Burnley, Watford, Fulham, Man Utd, Liverpool and West Ham. With better finishing or, dare I say it, just a little bit more luck, we could have accrued 10 points, or even more, from those games.

This article seems to confirm this in cold hard stats...

"Brighton have increased their amount of accurate crosses they are making per 90 minutes, up to 7.28 from 4.79, and it is generating more chances – they are now averaging 13.42 shots per game, compared to 9.37 for the season up until January 1.

They are also creating 1.14 “big” chances from 0.91, and the general quality of their chances has increased, raising their expected goals (xG) per game to 1.45 from 1.11.

But they have not been able to make this translate into goals; Brighton’s goals-per-game average has slipped from 1.2 to 1.0."

Full article here >>> https://whisp.rs/2tJz8cW

The stats speak for themselves. Agree with all of this, we have been unlucky and poor finishing has let down good performances.

Worried Man Blues · Mar 1, 2019

I am sure every supporter will think their team has been unlucky, hit the post etc. It's not a good enough excuse.

Is it PotG? · Mar 1, 2019

Hugo Rune said:
Really thought we were very good against Leicester but at this level, you need to finish.

That performance was the polar opposite of Burnley at the Amex, they took any chance that was given (except one) and had some decisions given to protect their lead. But they won and we didn’t.

It does not matter how well you play, it’s about sticking the ball in the net more times than the opposition.

At the end of the season, moans about formations, offsides, sendings off and injuries come to nowt. It's this.

CheeseRolls · Mar 1, 2019

My optimism comes from having a virtual full squad to pick from. We have seen players come in and add something, in the last couple of months, but lost some coherency as a unit. If we don't panic on Saturday, we can turn the tide. If we end up throwing Duffy up front in a desperate late search for a goal, we are right back in the desperate and ultimately unlucky days of Adam Virgo.

There are a couple of things Hughton hasn't tried, which I think may have some merit;

1 Beram Kayal has largely been a peripheral figure under Hughton. He doesn't really have the pace and guile to trouble the best defences. He is however an excellent defensive shield in a midfield diamond as he reads the game and tackles so well.
2 We have enough midfield players, to try playing without two wingers away from home. One or even none, may make us harder to break down and possibly more effective on the counter (Izquierdo and Andone)

chaileyjem · Mar 1, 2019

Worried Man Blues said:
I am sure every supporter will think their team has been unlucky, hit the post etc. It's not a good enough excuse.

Well yes.

But you're right. Ask Palace, who are only 3 points ahead of us, still in trouble (and we have a game in hand) who are probably perplexed how they've managed to beat Man City at the Ethiad and then drew at home to Cardiff the following week, went ahead away at West Ham, scored twice and lost, had Southampton take 4 points of them, thumped Leicester away from home ,yet lost in the last 10 seconds v Spurs, and could only score once against, gulp, a 10 man Brighton.

doogie004 · Mar 1, 2019

CheeseRolls said:
My optimism comes from having a virtual full squad to pick from. We have seen players come in and add something, in the last couple of months, but lost some coherency as a unit. If we don't panic on Saturday, we can turn the tide. If we end up throwing Duffy up front in a desperate late search for a goal, we are right back in the desperate and ultimately unlucky days of Adam Virgo.

There are a couple of things Hughton hasn't tried, which I think may have some merit;

1 Beram Kayal has largely been a peripheral figure under Hughton. He doesn't really have the pace and guile to trouble the best defences. He is however an excellent defensive shield in a midfield diamond as he reads the game and tackles so well.
2 We have enough midfield players, to try playing without two wingers away from home. One or even none, may make us harder to break down and possibly more effective on the counter (Izquierdo and Andone)

1. Meanwhile sideways Stephens 1 league goal in a season and a half is tearing up the league lol.
2. If locadia starts then we already start without 1 winger useless waste of money .leaves out knocky who is probably our most creative player and destroy his confidence

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[Albion] Hughton has "gone for it" but has just been unlucky

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