[Politics] Brexit

Thunder Bolt said:

We can revoke Article 50, sort out what we really do want, Norwegian, Candian, or our own deal, work with Ireland and then invoke Article 50 again.
Maybe ask the electorate what they really want as many people have changed their minds.

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Mouldy Boots said:

Mc Donnell is a liar and a Marxist.

Yet the Sheep will follow.

https://youtu.be/FtuEsbY5NE8

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Gwylan said:

I think that's an interesting question. My guess is that it depends how bad the hit is - we all know that the economy is going to a bit bumpy but is it going to a temporary hiccup or a long-term, deep recession. If the former, my guess is no, if the latter then, yes, we may well vote for it - particularly if the queen is dead (there may not be the same emotional attachment to a currency with Charlie's head on it)

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Westdene Seagull said:

I'd rather they consider that the UKs fiscal policy would be controlled by the EU rather than London and that we would be at risk of a basketcase economy of another Eurozone member ( see Greece, Italy and possibly Spain ) taking us down.

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Neville's Breakfast said:

Thank you. I hardly think the idea of triggering Article 50 was only in Theresa May’s head. In the period following the referendum there weren’t many people simply advocating ignoring the vote. The argument had moved on to hard Brexit/soft Brexit etc. It is my contention that the May Government played the long game of negotiating on the EU’s terms and agreeing not to discuss the trade deal that had been much debated during the referendum campaign. Had they made such discussion a pre condition of talks we would not be in the absurd position where we are being asked to approve an inadequate deal that keeps us in the single market for an indeterminate amount of time until a trade deal is finalized. Basically three years have been deliberately wasted just so Remainers can tell us three years have been wasted and we may as well stay in.

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Dorset Seagull said:

Indeed but I cant see a lot of people buying into that as its dragged on too long already and this would just lengthen the whole process

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Scunner said:

Dominic Cummings is pulling the strings and the OODA strategy of the Remain Alliance ‘RA’ being well and truly tested right now. The more enlightened of you should seek out his blogs on this over the last few years and you will gain insight into what is happening.

It’s very funny watching the RA now scramble for direction. BJ/MG/DC are outmanoeuvring them at every turn. But, they're also spiking Farage's guns, watch the BP slide in the polls even more after yesterday. The simple, and possibly sad fact is that there exists no one, not one politician or SpAd on the remain side that can even scratch the insight, knowledge and capability that DC has on political strategy.

The RA are somewhat helpless now. This is because it will slowly dawn on them that a deal is now more likely and they have been outgunned. Here’s why:

Vote of no confidence action.
A VoNC will not be successful before the party conference recess, as Conservative MPs, no matter how remainy, will want to give HMG time to negotiate with the EU especially given recent emollient rumblings from over the channel on the NI backstop. Indeed, expect the next phase on the grid to be more, not less, positivity from both the EU and HMG on the NI backstop before Parliament returns next week. Plus, up to 30 Labour MPs will abstain. JC knows this at least, which is why he doesn't want a VoNC now. If there is a confidence vote on the return of parliament on 14th October it's unlikely to happen before the EU summit that week on 16/17th. If HMG were to lose that, ND happens by default because an interim govmt will not happen as there is no flavor of it that will command a majority - this will further deter remain Tories because the reality of ND or a new WA bill approved at the EU council will be directly in front of them. A VoNC is bound to fail.

Blocking legislation
This is the bigger and more imminent threat to DC/BJ/MG’s plans. But it will struggle if, before next Tuesday, BJ makes valid noises about the possibility of a deal. Equally, if it looks like the emergency legislation looks like it has a chance of success, HMG could amend it with a VoNC clause and impose a 3 line whip, effectively bringing forward the above conundrum, because if successful ND becomes more, not less, likely.

Rationale
A new Queen's speech means that the WA can be returned to Parliament because it's a new legislative session. If it is brought back minus the NI Backstop as drafted, it will pass. I am certain this is the plan and it will work, this is why you haven't seen or heard any negative briefings from Donald Tusk post his meeting with BJ, because it's (the deal) already done. All that needed to happen was for HMG to create the space for it to happen, a Queen's speech facilitates that by re-introducing the WA bill - this has already been welcomed by the EU according to some.

The way I think that the NI backstop will be removed is ingenious, but it's already in play. Essentially it will be written into UK law that it will be illegal for goods crossing the NI/Ire border to be non-EU compliant, reciprocally the same will apply in reverse. This will preserve the legislative integrity of the SM and the UK Govmt simultaneously. The legal blog is below and is backed by EU insiders, you saw it here first: Dominic Cummings is pulling the strings and the OODA strategy of the Remain Alliance ‘RA’ being well and truly tested right now. The more enlightened of you should seek out his blogs on this over the last few years and you will gain insight into what is happening.

It’s very funny watching the RA now scramble for direction. BJ/MG/DC are outmanoeuvring them at every turn. But, they're also spiking Farage's guns, watch the BP slide in the polls even more after yesterday. The simple, and possibly sad fact is that there exists no one, not one politician or SpAd on the remain side that can even scratch the insight, knowledge and capability that DC has on political strategy.

The RA are somewhat helpless now. This is because it will slowly dawn on them that a deal is now more likely and they have been outgunned. Here’s why:

Vote of no confidence action.
A VoNC will not be successful before the party conference recess, as Conservative MPs, no matter how remainy, will want to give HMG time to negotiate with the EU especially given recent emollient rumblings from over the channel on the NI backstop. Indeed, expect the next phase on the grid to be more, not less, positivity from both the EU and HMG on the NI backstop before Parliament returns next week. Plus, up to 30 Labour MPs will abstain. JC knows this at least, which is why he doesn't want a VoNC now. If there is a confidence vote on the return of parliament on 14th October it's unlikely to happen before the EU summit that week on 16/17th. If HMG were to lose that, ND happens by default because an interim govmt will not happen as there is no flavor of it that will command a majority - this will further deter remain Tories because the reality of ND or a new WA bill approved at the EU council will be directly in front of them. A VoNC is bound to fail.

Blocking legislation
This is the bigger and more imminent threat to DC/BJ/MG’s plans. But it will struggle if, before next Tuesday, BJ makes valid noises about the possibility of a deal. Equally, if it looks like the emergency legislation looks like it has a chance of success, HMG could amend it with a VoNC clause and impose a 3 line whip, effectively bringing forward the above conundrum, because if successful ND becomes more, not less, likely.

Rationale
A new Queen's speech means that the WA can be returned to Parliament because it's a new legislative session. If it is brought back minus the NI Backstop as drafted, it will pass. I am certain this is the plan and it will work, this is why you haven't seen or heard any negative briefings from Donald Tusk post his meeting with BJ, because it's (the deal) already done. All that needed to happen was for HMG to create the space for it to happen, a Queen's speech facilitates that by re-introducing the WA bill - this has already been welcomed by the EU according to some.

The way I think that the NI backstop will be removed is ingenious, but it's already in play. Essentially it will be written into UK law that it will be illegal for goods crossing the NI/Ire border to be non-EU compliant, reciprocally the same will apply in reverse. This will preserve the legislative integrity of the SM and the UK Govmt simultaneously. The legal blog is below and is backed by EU insiders, you saw it here first: https://verfassungsblog.de/an-offer...qPfiHdxlvhZBG4507lUs9K0-Ow-cR6NcZ-czQlhTUen9s

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Westdene Seagull said:

I don't think, or at least I would hope, that people wouldn't choose to take the Euro based on Charlie's face being on it or not ! I'd rather they consider that the UKs fiscal policy would be controlled by the EU rather than London and that we would be at risk of a basketcase economy of another Eurozone member ( see Greece, Italy and possibly Spain ) taking us down.

Click to expand...

Thunder Bolt said:

We can revoke Article 50, sort out what we really do want, Norwegian, Candian, or our own deal, work with Ireland and then invoke Article 50 again.
Maybe ask the electorate what they really want as many people have changed their minds.

Click to expand...

Mouldy Boots said:

Mc Donnell is a liar and a Marxist.

Yet the Sheep will follow.

https://youtu.be/FtuEsbY5NE8

Click to expand...

CHAPPERS said:

Boris Johnson has lied countless times throughout his career, including throughout the referendum and people are giving him the benefit of the doubt. It’s so weird.

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Mellotron said:

It's genuinely odd, isn't it?

This man lies all the time but this lie is something I want to believe, so I will.

Childish really.

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osgood said:

via a 2nd referendum or a general election ?

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Thunder Bolt said:

A general election first, and then a 2nd referendum with a lot closer scrutiny of spending and advertising.

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Thunder Bolt said:

A general election first, and then a 2nd referendum with a lot closer scrutiny of spending and advertising.

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lawros left foot said:

Can someone tell Johnson he can stop now.

He’s a shoo in for the top of the ‘Worst Prime Minister in history ‘ list.

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