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[Football] The race for 4th



Simster

"the man's an arse"
Jul 7, 2003
54,233
Surrey
I haven't paid attention to the very top for a while now - no Albion win in 10 will do that to me - but I've just taken a look and somehow we're only 5 points off the pace (let's call it 5.5 points as our GD isn't great).

You look at the table and you can make a case for dozens of sides to get to 4th. In truth, West Ham are a decent side but we went toe to toe with them last night. I think most likely 4th placed team are Arsenal, simply because they have two or three very good front players who WILL score goals even if they go through barren runs. The way they've reacted to losing their first 3 games has been very impressive too, and I think other clubs can look at them as an example of a squad with character. Their fans don't deserve their team to be as good as it is - charmless bunch of entitled prìcks that they are. West Ham look decent too, but like most of "the other 14", they are vulnerable when their striker is out of touch. Antonio has played really well this season, but he's gone off the boil and West Ham are heavily reliant on him.

That leaves Wolves, Leicester, Spurs, Man Utd and ourselves as the teams breathing down their necks. You can make a case for all of them, or none of them. Wolves started off terribly, but won about 5 on the spin and have now won 1 in 4. Leicester are a lovely side to watch yet their vulnerability at the back is holding them back. Spurs are, well, Spurs. Massive delusions of grandeur don't help when your team is playing shit. They lose two games and the Kane rumour mill starts up. Very counter-productive. "Lovely stadium though" (c). Incidentally, how can a team with Kane and Son up top only manage to score 11 goals all season? That's two fewer than us! And then Man Utd - clearly have lots of issues. Don't seem very well run IMO, only play in fits and starts, have some very overrated players and they don't play Ronaldo enough - their results have been shocking.

I know it seems laughable to suggest that our team that hasn't won in ten is still in this race, but we look like we're one of seven teams with a genuine chance of sneaking 4th and with a good shout of the runners up prize of Europa league football. If, IF we could just be a bit more clinical! Our recruitment team has genuinely done it's job well over the past decade, so imagine if it plays a blinder in January and plucks out a goal scorer from somewhere...
 
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Icy Gull

Back on the rollercoaster
Jul 5, 2003
72,015
There is dreaming and there is delusion, you know which side of the fence [MENTION=232]Simster[/MENTION] is falling :lolol:

But I am happy to believe until the wheels come off, which they will :thumbsup:
 






Simster

"the man's an arse"
Jul 7, 2003
54,233
Surrey
There is dreaming and there is delusion, you know which side of the fence [MENTION=232]Simster[/MENTION] is falling :lolol:

Well I don't seriously think we will get 4th but if we started scoring goals after January I don't see why aiming at 4th but holding onto 7th isn't possible. As I say, I think Arsenal will get it, with Leicester not far behind. Their issue is their defence and I would say that is far easier to fix than our problematic goal scoring issue.
 






um bongo molongo

Well-known member
Jul 26, 2004
2,701
Battersea
There is dreaming and there is delusion, you know which side of the fence [MENTION=232]Simster[/MENTION] is falling :lolol:

But I am happy to believe until the wheels come off, which they will :thumbsup:

Imagine how deluded we’d be if we’d had a high quality #9 to turn a couple of those draws in to wins and were sitting fourth!
 


Stat Brother

Well-known member
NSC Patron
Jul 11, 2003
73,870
West west west Sussex






Here'sWally

New member
Sep 27, 2021
118
It's fun to think about, but let's not let some very high aspirations blind us to the fact that finishing 12th would be good progress.

Beyond that would be a nice bonus. We are getting better, developing the squad, improving the players, season on season. So while I would caution some tempered expectations, I would also say that we can be excited about what the coming seasons might bring. Carry on improving the way we are and we can genuinely look forward to competing in that 4th-8th zone on a regular basis in the years to come.

But let's not make it a hope, or worse, an expectation this season, even though it could conceivably happen. Let's improve on last season, avoid the bottom half if we can, and enjoy watching great football every week.
 


Simster

"the man's an arse"
Jul 7, 2003
54,233
Surrey
Imagine how deluded we’d be if we’d had a high quality #9 to turn a couple of those draws in to wins and were sitting fourth!

And we are only talking about three of those draws - and the Leeds and Newcastle draws shouldn't have needed a new player at all.
 












Simster

"the man's an arse"
Jul 7, 2003
54,233
Surrey
The suggestion of us finishing 4th is so absurd l'm not even going to post.

Whoooops, l just have.

Crazy in the extreme. :ffsparr:

I thought I'd go and see how crazy: oddschecker have us finishing 4th at a best priced 66/1. Seems like good value to me, I'd have thought 40/1 would be about right (it's a 7 horse race but we're the outsiders of them).

Other prices:
Man Utd 11/10
Arsenal 11/4
Spurs 9/2
West Ham 5/1
Leicester 25/1
Wolves 90/1
 


Cowfold Seagull

Fan of the 17 bus
Apr 22, 2009
21,665
Cowfold
I thought I'd go and see how crazy: oddschecker have us finishing 4th at a best priced 66/1. Seems like good value to me, I'd have thought 40/1 would be about right (it's a 7 horse race but we're the outsiders of them).

Other prices:
Man Utd 11/10
Arsenal 11/4
Spurs 9/2
West Ham 5/1
Leicester 25/1
Wolves 90/1

To be honest l thought Wolves would have a better chance than us, yet they are only 90/1!

Seriously it will be one of the top three you have listed. I could almost put my mortgage on it.
 


Commander

Well-known member
NSC Patron
Apr 28, 2004
12,970
London
Just to put things into perspective-

We are 5 points off 4th place
We have 6 points more than 4th from bottom Watford.

6 points off the relegation zone is loads. People think it's two games but it isn't, because the teams down there pick up about a point a game. It would likely need 5 or 6 defeats on the trot for us to slip down there. I never understand how people seem to forget this every year.
 






Simster

"the man's an arse"
Jul 7, 2003
54,233
Surrey
6 points off the relegation zone is loads. People think it's two games but it isn't, because the teams down there pick up about a point a game. It would likely need 5 or 6 defeats on the trot for us to slip down there. I never understand how people seem to forget this every year.
And that is 4th from bottom, which is completely irrelevant. It's another 3 points to the relegation places. If we lost 15 on the spin from now, I still think we'd be out of the bottom 3.



To be honest l thought Wolves would have a better chance than us, yet they are only 90/1!

Seriously it will be one of the top three you have listed. I could almost put my mortgage on it.
Wolves are generally available at a similar price to us, but Paddy Power have them at 90/1. I don't know why. Man Utd are massively underpriced - they might do it but those are absolutely stupid odds. Best value for me are Wolves (90/1), Leicester (25/1) and Brighton (66/1) but honestly I think Arsenal will take it.
 
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Stat Brother

Well-known member
NSC Patron
Jul 11, 2003
73,870
West west west Sussex
6 points off the relegation zone is loads. People think it's two games but it isn't, because the teams down there pick up about a point a game. It would likely need 5 or 6 defeats on the trot for us to slip down there. I never understand how people seem to forget this every year.

Guilty as charged.
 


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