[Albion] New manager bounce. Or not.

Bozza · Nov 18, 2021

For no apparent reason, obvs, I thought I'd try and see what results Premier League clubs achieved after a mid-season change of manager...

2021-22
Antonio Conte / Spurs - Drew (Everton away)
Claudio Ranieri / Watford - Lost (Liverpool at home)
Graeme Jones / Newcastle - Drew (Crystal Palace away)

2020-21
Thomas Tuchel / Chelsea - Drew (Wolves at home)
Paul Heckingbottom / Sheffield United - Lost (Leicester away)
Ryan Mason / Spurs - Won (Southampton at home)
Sam Allardyce / West Brom - Lost (Aston Villa at home)

2019-20
Freddie Ljungberg / Arsenal - Drew (Norwich away)
Michel Arteta / Arsenal - Drew (Everton away)
Carlo Ancelotti / Everton - Won (Burnley at home)
Jose Mourinho / Spurs - Won (West Ham away)
Quique Sánchez Flores / Watford - Drew (Arsenal at home)
Nigel Pearson / Watford - Drew (Crystal Palace at home)

In summary: I've wasted quite a bit of time on this, and proven absolutely nothing at all.

Is it PotG? · Nov 18, 2021

Please, please don't let it bounce on Saturday.

Bry Nylon · Nov 18, 2021

Bozza said:
In summary: I've wasted quite a bit of time on this, and proven absolutely nothing at all.

Well, if nothing else that (above) has finally solved the dilemma of what to have on my headstone, when the time comes.

Originunknown · Nov 18, 2021

Brilliant, let's piss on their chips.

Swansman · Nov 18, 2021

Bozza said:
For no apparent reason, obvs, I thought I'd try and see what results Premier League clubs achieved after a mid-season change of manager...

2021-22
Antonio Conte / Spurs - Drew (Everton away)
Claudio Ranieri / Watford - Lost (Liverpool at home)
Graeme Jones / Newcastle - Drew (Crystal Palace away)

2020-21
Thomas Tuchel / Chelsea - Drew (Wolves at home)
Paul Heckingbottom / Sheffield United - Lost (Leicester away)
Ryan Mason / Spurs - Won (Southampton at home)
Sam Allardyce / West Brom - Lost (Aston Villa at home)

2019-20
Freddie Ljungberg / Arsenal - Drew (Norwich away)
Michel Arteta / Arsenal - Drew (Everton away)
Carlo Ancelotti / Everton - Won (Burnley at home)
Jose Mourinho / Spurs - Won (West Ham away)
Quique Sánchez Flores / Watford - Drew (Arsenal at home)
Nigel Pearson / Watford - Drew (Crystal Palace at home)

In summary: I've wasted quite a bit of time on this, and proven absolutely nothing at all.

In general clubs average 0.9-1.0 points per game in the six games leading up to getting sacked while the above managed to get 1.3 points per game. While this indicates a bounce, most clubs also doesnt sack their manager ahead of a game against the big teams and new names are often put in charge ahead of a "winable" game so arguably there is not much of a bounce effect.

Sacking the manager or not sacking the manager, winning a few games in a row or losing a few games in a row... whatever you do, at the end of the day you are very likely to end up within 3 places of the "wage expense league".

Acker79 · Nov 18, 2021

I think there is probably a massive difference between 'new manager' and 'new manager whose first game is against brighton and hove albion'.

Bold Seagull · Nov 18, 2021

Originunknown said:
Brilliant, let's piss on their chips.

I think this is partly why the very first result after the change isn't a win more often – it's more important that the new manager doesn't start with a defeat, rather than whether it is a win or draw.

I'd imagine for Gerrard avoiding defeat against us pissing on their chips is priority no.1, then he's got a bit of time to start building momentum. I'm sure they'll be well set up and motivated on Saturday, but I suspect with a bit of caution too.

Nobby Cybergoat · Nov 18, 2021

Bold Seagull said:
I think this is partly why the very first result after the change isn't a win more often – it's more important that the new manager doesn't start with a defeat, rather than whether it is a win or draw.

I'd imagine for Gerrard avoiding defeat against us pissing on their chips is priority no.1, then he's got a bit of time to start building momentum. I'm sure they'll be well set up and motivated on Saturday, but I suspect with a bit of caution too.

Yeh, draw by far the most likely result

Worried Man Blues · Nov 18, 2021

The last manager gets sacked because they were losing ie shipping goals, so the first thing the new manager does is stop them conceding and not yet concentrating on the front end, Hence it is likely to be a draw.

Bozza · Nov 18, 2021

I'm not going back now to pull out the result of those fixtures, but in line with the above posts, I can recall there being a fair few 0-0s, and thinking "I can see Saturday being another one"...

maltaseagull · Nov 18, 2021

Bry Nylon said:
Well, if nothing else that (above) has finally solved the dilemma of what to have on my headstone, when the time comes.

Please, please don't let it bounce ? :flameboun

Originunknown · Nov 18, 2021

Gerrard making his bow but Steeley will be too. Hope he doesn't let it bounce..

Harry Wilson's tackle · Nov 18, 2021

Bozza said:
For no apparent reason, obvs, I thought I'd try and see what results Premier League clubs achieved after a mid-season change of manager...

<snip>

In summary: I've wasted quite a bit of time on this, and proven absolutely nothing at all.

It isn't the utility of the outcome, it's the quality of the workmanship that matters

ConfusedGloryHunter · Nov 18, 2021

A nailed on 0-0 you say? So that is Martinez in for Sanchez in Fantasy football this week.

Giraffe · Nov 18, 2021

Don't know why but I follow the logic that I would have been confident that we would beat them, but the bounce will be enough to get them a draw and I suspect both teams would be happy to take that.

Sid in the Sharknado · Nov 18, 2021

Swansman said:
In general clubs average 0.9-1.0 points per game in the six games leading up to getting sacked while the above managed to get 1.3 points per game. While this indicates a bounce, most clubs also doesnt sack their manager ahead of a game against the big teams and new names are often put in charge ahead of a "winable" game so arguably there is not much of a bounce effect.

Sacking the manager or not sacking the manager, winning a few games in a row or losing a few games in a row... whatever you do, at the end of the day you are very likely to end up within 3 places of the "wage expense league".

You and your "facts" and "objective reality".

A1X · Nov 18, 2021

What's interesting is very few of those non-wins came against the likes of CIty or Liverpool, so it's not like they were on a hiding to nothing.

Dick Swiveller · Nov 18, 2021

I am now obsessed with trying to work out if Steve Bruce would bounce or splat. Maybe an episode for Mythbusters right there.

Dick Knights Mumm · Nov 18, 2021

Bozza said:
I'm not going back now to pull out the result of those fixtures, but in line with the above posts, I can recall there being a fair few 0-0s, and thinking "I can see Saturday being another one"...

That makes sense I suppose. If the defence was functioning there wouldn't be a new manager - so first job - tighten that up.

Shropshire Seagull · Nov 18, 2021

There is some great opportunity to collect further data on this:

Saturday 20th November, 3 EPL managers will make their debuts for their new club, all at home, all at 3pm and all potentially win-able [let's hope not] games.

Villa Vs Us - Stevie G
Saudi FC Vs Brentford - Smug Eddie
Norwich Vs Staines - Dean Smith

If the outcome is 3 home wins then the new manager bounce is proven - 3 away wins say otherwise
Draws don't tell us anything unless you argue that Villa have lost 5 on the bounce and Stevie G has stopped the rot!
Ours has nil-nil written all over it.
The greatest uncertainty will be if MOTD see Stevie G as a reason to not hold us back until last up on the running order ...

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