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[Football] Your bottom 3. Mid Season edition.













Jim in the West

Jim in the West

Well-known member
NSC Patron
Sep 13, 2003
4,599
Way out West
In terms of the points needed to avoid the drop, in the last four seasons 35 has been enough (in fact, in one of those years 34 was sufficient). Comparing the position at the half way point this season to last, the current bottom six are under-achieving (with a collective 80 pnts from 110 games...ie, 0.73/game - the figures last year were 95 points, and an average of 0.89/game). Even when you remove Sheff Utd (as an outlier), the average points/game figure for the teams at the bottom is lower this season than last (although similar to 18/19).

I think it MAY therefore be safe to say that 35 points should be enough to stay up. That implies that West Brom need to average 1.4 pnts/game in the second half of the season. Fulham need 1.15. We need 0.95. Burnley need 0.9. Newcastle need 0.8.

Just looking at this mathematically, I think West Brom are pretty likely to be relegated. Sheff Utd are certain (they need to average 1.6 pnts/game). And if Fulham are to escape they may well need to overtake Newcastle*. Even though Fulham look a far better team than Newcastle, that's still quite a tough ask. [*I'm assuming we escape, plus Burnley - obviously I could be wrong!]

So, after that boring preamble, I'm going

Sheff Utd
West Brom
Fulham
 






Hugo Rune

Hugo Rune

Well-known member
NSC Patron
Feb 23, 2012
21,706
Brighton
blue-shifted said:
The thing is, that Burnley have only scored 9 goals despite having perfectly capable strikers. Burnley's issues are systemic, it's not a case of them missing sitters. They can only keep teams from running in 4 or 5 against them by sitting very deep and hoping for something from a set piece.

It might just work to keep them up again .. but they would need to add about 7 first teamers to seriously have a chance at playing more expansively.
Click to expand...

I agree. But their strikers our out of form. Burnley need a brilliant conversion rate (which they normally have with Wood, Barnes and Rodriguez), normally they take the chances and pile the points. If Wood & Barnes start sticking their few chances away again, they’ll be saved.

Unlike Potter, Dyche only has one way of setting them up which is about having your best players fit & in form, same formation and same 11, week in and week out with constant practice and drilling of defensive shapes and set-pieces.

For what it’s worth, I think the pressure of having to get profits for shareholders by maintaining EPL status could be too much, especially if they are unable to play in front of their fans.
 


Bladders

Bladders

Twats everywhere
Jun 22, 2012
13,672
The Troubadour
Moshe Gariani said:
Goal Difference is quite a useful guide when comparing teams' performance over 19 matches. It is slightly more sensitive than points won and ranks teams more accurately in terms of how good they really are.

Burnley, Newcastle & Palace are the three most likely to challenge the current basement dwellers for a relegation spot.
Click to expand...

Agree . It’s usually the teams with terrible goal difference that eventually go


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 




B

blue-shifted

Banned
Feb 20, 2004
7,645
a galaxy far far away
Results still going ok. Hoping for a demoralising thrashing for Burnley tonight
 


S

SittingbourneSeagull

Well-known member
Dec 27, 2007
1,095
Sittingbourne
Having watched Fulham last night I don't think they will go down. I think we will do well to get a win against them and they have WBA in their next match when we play Spurs.

I think Sheffield Utd, WBA and one from Newcastle and Burnley.
 








Mellotron

Mellotron

I've asked for soup
Jul 2, 2008
31,884
Brighton
Newcastle
West Brom
Sheff Utd
 


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