[Albion] The Alternative Giraffe Tracker

Guinness Boy · Dec 30, 2020

Many point to [MENTION=3734]Giraffe[/MENTION] 's tracker as a reliable guide to avoid bed wetting and, indeed, it has been so in the past.

However, there clearly is a lot of worry around at the moment, so why?

Let's take the same premise that you need 40 points. That means we need 27 points from 22 games. About 1.2 points a game.

This neatly breaks down as follows (allowing for between 13 and 7 defeats).

9 wins (13 defeats)
8 wins 3 draws
7 wins 6 draws
6 wins 9 draws (7 losses)

So, for all those positive happy clappers, which of those permutations looks the most likely? And, in which games do you see those points being achieved.

Before you ask me, I already think it's unachievable.

Not trying to bin off the normal tracker but this could be an interesting thread to bounce at the end of the season if people are prepared to put their heads above the parapet.

Questions · Dec 30, 2020

If you can’t put your head above the parapet then you shouldn’t play with matches in the frying pan

Swansman · Dec 30, 2020

7 wins 6 draws sounds pretty likely. Or 6 wins 6 draws, which wouldnt result in 40 points but probably the number of points needed in something around 9/10 PL seasons.

pb21 · Dec 30, 2020

Guinness Boy said:
Let's take the same premise that you need 40 points.

Much less than 40 points will be sufficient to stay up.

Edit: currently based on the PPG, 28 would be sufficient.

Swansman · Dec 30, 2020

pb21 said:
Much less than 40 points will be sufficient to stay up.

Lets not ruin his Jehovahs Witness like doomsday obsession.

dazzer6666 · Dec 30, 2020

Guinness Boy said:
Many point to [MENTION=3734]Giraffe[/MENTION] 's tracker as a reliable guide to avoid bed wetting and, indeed, it has been so in the past.

However, there clearly is a lot of worry around at the moment, so why?

Let's take the same premise that you need 40 points. That means we need 27 points from 22 games. About 1.2 points a game.

This neatly breaks down as follows (allowing for between 13 and 7 defeats).

9 wins (13 defeats)
8 wins 3 draws
7 wins 6 draws
6 wins 9 draws (7 losses)

So, for all those positive happy clappers, which of those permutations looks the most likely? And, in which games do you see those points being achieved.

Before you ask me, I already think it's unachievable.

Not trying to bin off the normal tracker but this could be an interesting thread to bounce at the end of the season if people are prepared to put their heads above the parapet.

None of the above, but we won't need 40 points..............at the moment, though, struggling to see where one win will come from.

Icy Gull · Dec 30, 2020

You are really desperate to sell your ultra negative take on Potter aren’t you? Come the end of the season, if you are right you can crow away but try putting that white flag away whilst there are so many points to play for.

You may get your wish and see Potter sacked but maybe TB will back him in January and we’ll see an upswing. Setting yourself up as the font of all knowledge about what is going to happen is pretty wearing, to me anyway.

We have been through so much more shit than what is going on at the moment, it’s depressing to see so many quitters on here.

Just trust in TB, he surely has that in the bank?

By all means rejoice if you get your way and Potter is sacked.

Drebin · Dec 30, 2020

pb21 said:
Much less than 40 points will be sufficient to stay up.

This. It’s a proper s**tshow at the bottom of the league this year (which we are most definitely a part of). 35-36 points could probably be enough. 5 wins and 7 draws for me.

andy1980 · Dec 30, 2020

Swansman said:
7 wins 6 draws sounds pretty likely. Or 6 wins 6 draws, which wouldnt result in 40 points but probably the number of points needed in something around 9/10 PL seasons.

We have only won 5 games in the whole of 2020 in the Premier League. What do you see that makes you think we are going to get significantly better at winning?

Bry Nylon · Dec 30, 2020

Im not thinking so much about points targets this year because I don't believe we will get anywhere near 40. So staying up will be a question of matching and occassionally bettering WBAs and Fulham's results for the remainder of the season.

zefarelly · Dec 30, 2020

8 wins 3 draws 11 defeats sounds realistic, but we won't achieve it, without significant change.

GP can't rally what we've got and I'm not convinced we'll see significant squad improvements in JAnuary

I was remarkably relaxed about yesterdays game, we're heading down. Nothing I can do about it, plenty for far more important things to be concerned about at the moment.

Guinness Boy · Dec 30, 2020

Swansman said:
7 wins 6 draws sounds pretty likely. Or 6 wins 6 draws, which wouldnt result in 40 points but probably the number of points needed in something around 9/10 PL seasons.

It sounds more likely that we'll win more between now and May than we did in the whole of 2020? But you're not prepared to call which ones?

Hmmm.

Swansman · Dec 30, 2020

andy1980 said:
We have only won 5 games in the whole of 2020 in the Premier League. What do you see that makes you think we are going to get significantly better at winning?

Some good football and a fair lot of chances created in most games. Not saying top 10 is around the corner but I think, whatever happens with squad, manager etc. that next year will be better than this year.

Hugo Rune · Dec 30, 2020

Sheffield Utd, West Brom and Fulham are all very poor teams indeed, I really can’t see any of the three finishing above 30 points. Palace & Newcastle are also poor and are catchable for any team below willing to find some good results. We’d have to lose our ability to draw to finish below any of these. We are much more likely to find some goal scoring form as it’s the icing on the cake that is ‘finishing big chances’ that will see us climb the table.

Swansman · Dec 30, 2020

Guinness Boy said:
It sounds more likely that we'll win more between now and May than we did in the whole of 2020? But you're not prepared to call which ones?

Hmmm.

Yup I think so. Not sure (no one could be) about which ones but if Im going to predict: Leeds away, Fulham home, Burnley away, Palace home, Newcastle home, Sheffield away,

andy1980 · Dec 30, 2020

Swansman said:
Some good football and a fair lot of chances created in most games. Not saying top 10 is around the corner but I think, whatever happens with squad, manager etc. that next year will be better than this year.

That is what I have seen since Graham Potter took over. Including the whole of 2020. I don't see what is going to be different. He is trying but it isn't working. All thats missing is the wins and I don't know how Potter is going to bring that.

Stat Brother · Dec 30, 2020

Guinness Boy said:
It sounds more likely that we'll win more between now and May than we did in the whole of 2020? But you're not prepared to call which ones?

Hmmm.

That is the premise of Giraffe's tracker.

Hugo Rune · Dec 30, 2020

Swansman said:
Yup I think so. Not sure (no one could be) about which ones but if Im going to predict: Leeds away, Fulham home, Burnley away, Palace home, Newcastle home, Sheffield away,

We’re generally good away where an average non top six side comes for us (see Newcastle & Villa). The home games you quote have draw written all over them though.

Realistic away wins are:
Leeds
Burnley
West Brom
S’ampton
Sheff Utd
Wolves
Arsenal

That‘s 21 points that we can go for (with even more confidence if a natural Striker has been signed).

andy1980 · Dec 30, 2020

Swansman said:
Yup I think so. Not sure (no one could be) about which ones but if Im going to predict: Leeds away, Fulham home, Burnley away, Palace home, Newcastle home, Sheffield away,

The only team we haven't played this season is Leeds. The only game we have won this season is Newcastle. Again what do you see that makes you think we will turn those draws into wins.

Swansman · Dec 30, 2020

andy1980 said:
The only team we haven't played this season is Leeds. The only game we have won this season is Newcastle. Again what do you see that makes you think we will turn those draws into wins.

Generally being better than at least some of those teams are what makes me think at least a couple of those draws could be turned into wins. Winning, drawing or losing against a team doesnt mean every game against that team will have the same outcome, despite many apparently believing this is the case.

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