[News] The Coronavirus Good News thread

Badger Boy said:

I hope they also have some positive influences in their lives to counterbalance your attitude and perspective.

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LamieRobertson said:

Tweet from The Prof from a few hours ago

111 fatalities reported vs 121, 160, 210, 288, 338, 559, 744 on previous Mondays. The lowest figure since lockdown began.

1570 new cases, the lowest number since the end of March.

Hospital admissions continue to fall.

Everything is going in the right direction.

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Notters said:

I have seen a lot of people slagging him off on twitter. A LOT. Saying that he's a government stooge etc. - is there any basis to this?

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highflyer said:

It started to creep up a bit in mid May - which had me slightly worried, but has since begun to drop again and stays low overall. Given incubation period, I 'd assume there is a 5-7 day lag built into this, so it would be showing if any problems had started since VE day and the easing of lockdown.

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The Wizard said:

Sikora - regardless of anything in his past, has been a beacon of positivity in this crisis and has helped many, many thousands who need a positive bit of news with the absolute deluge of hatred and negativity on Twitter, he’s not an expert on epidemics and doesn’t claim to be, so many people criticise him now it’s quite sad really, these people themselves are the ones with the problem as I have never seen him post anything that he claims is fact, I saw someone trying to discredit him yesterday for sharing an article from March that offered a more optimistic outcome, it’s really sad.

Twitter is really the worst of the worst social media has to offer, apologies slightly off topic I know.

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Notters said:

I have seen a lot of people slagging him off on twitter. A LOT. Saying that he's a government stooge etc. - is there any basis to this?

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dazzer6666 said:

Plenty of articles about him online that are easy enough to find for anyone interested, this isn't the thread to discuss them though.

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The Wizard said:

Sikora - regardless of anything in his past, has been a beacon of positivity in this crisis and has helped many, many thousands who need a positive bit of news with the absolute deluge of hatred and negativity on Twitter, he’s not an expert on epidemics and doesn’t claim to be, so many people criticise him now it’s quite sad really, these people themselves are the ones with the problem as I have never seen him post anything that he claims is fact, I saw someone trying to discredit him yesterday for sharing an article from March that offered a more optimistic outcome, it’s really sad.

Twitter is really the worst of the worst social media has to offer, apologies slightly off topic I know.

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LamieRobertson said:

I’ll just post this one response it’s a tweet by the Prof today in response to that oaf Morgan ..the Prof has remained calm and polite despite being baited by PM several times

“I said we need to remain 'calm' and 'accurate' when interpreting the figures.

It's been a horrific few months, but infections, hospitalisations and fatalities are all falling.

People deserve to know the progress we have made.”

I’ll leave it there

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Guinness Boy said:

Guys, I've created a Sikora thread in the main Coronavirus sub forum. Feel free to debate it to death there.

https://www.northstandchat.com/showthread.php?380367-Professor-Karel-Sikora&p=9364931#post9364931

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A1X said:

Probably accounts for the slight mid-May rise TBH, although it's good to see that those well-publicised incidents appear to have not had a major impact (although the localised ones would tell us more in this regard). The next big test will be when the shops reopen in a few weeks time.

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A1X said:

Probably accounts for the slight mid-May rise TBH, although it's good to see that those well-publicised incidents appear to have not had a major impact (although the localised ones would tell us more in this regard). The next big test will be when the shops reopen in a few weeks time.

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highflyer said:

I think they would be first to say that their methodology cannot give a perfectly accurate number (although over time with more and more people reporting, and with the addition of random testing, I'm sure they are getting more accurate). So the small fluctuations over the last few weeks are probably fairly irrelevant given margin of error. The overall trend is clear though and backs up data from other sources (hospital admissions probably the most accurate in trems of indicating trends). And seems to show we are maintaining something between slow decline and steady equilibrium.

It's worth saying this study (are you contributing? And if not, why not? https://covid.joinzoe.com/) has also provided a lot of quality, useful research information to help understand and combat the disease. 3.7m people contributing now.

It is tools like this (which can give early warning of localised outbreaks) - the track and trace system (even if not perfect will still have a big impact), increasing knowledge of how transmission happens (eg knowing how much transmission occurs outside, and what the role of younger childen is) and advances in testing and early treatment - which can all be used to balance the increasing risks that we take as we ease up and get life closer to normal. I am naturally cautious, but also confident that we can get the balance right. And even though it makes me personally anxious, I know we cannot keep a heavy lockdown going for everyone long term. The damage will be so much greater than what will occur if we just can keep the virus at current levels, let alone if we can bring it down further.

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Bob! said:

UK weekend briefings to stop



The government has announced there will no longer be televised briefings at weekends, starting this week.

However, the prime minister has committed to taking part in at least one briefing a week, Downing Street said.

There was no mention of changes to weekday briefings.

The first briefing was held on 16 March, and since then there has been one every day, including weekends and bank holidays

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wehatepalace said:

It’s good news in the way that at least it’s 2 less days we have to listen to the press ask exactly the same question as the journalist before him/her.

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The functions of a Covid-19 press conference seem to be to transmit information, praise the indefatigable, and brandish a doom‑laden cudgel at the public. A common theme is that if virus-control measures are not observed, or are relaxed too soon, there will be a second “wave” or “peak” of infections.

In the UK, an often-repeated prognostication has been that this second wave might be more virulent than the first and that the NHS would be overwhelmed. The message from Geneva during the World Health Organisation’s press briefing on May 25 was more nuanced, but of the same ilk. The point was made that the decline in cases in many countries has been due to the control measures, rather than to the virus running out of steam of its own accord, and that relaxing them could lead to an immediate second peak for which we should get ready.

I am a second-wave sceptic. I said so in evidence to the Scottish Parliament’s health and sport committee in April, and was criticised by Nicola Sturgeon for it.

I started my virological career working on viruses spread by the respiratory route and was mentored at that time by June Almeida, the discoverer of human coronaviruses. I consider that the evidence supporting the notion of a second wave or peak of Covid-19 infections in the UK that would swamp the NHS is very weak. If we get the easing of lockdown wrong, far more likely would be a continuation of infections, many in the form of localised outbreaks, but not waves or peaks.

The idea of a devastating second wave comes almost entirely from the 1918 Spanish flu pandemic. The first wave occurred in June and July and the second in October and November. The first was mild and the second was lethal. It is yet to be explained why the infections occurred in waves and why the virus faded away after the first and then returned.

Mathematical modelling textbooks do not discuss it. There was no effective social distancing in 1918 and it had nothing to do with herd immunity. It is possible that the first-wave virus differed genetically from the one that caused the second, but this is an entirely speculative theory because no virus samples from the first are available for scientists to test – influenza virus wasn’t discovered until 1933.
Subsequent flu pandemics have been much less lethal. The Asian flu second wave was less lethal than the first. Hong Kong flu in 1968-69 caused fewer deaths but had a second wave that killed more in Britain than the first (though the first was more lethal in America). And swine flu in 2009 killed 10 in its first wave and 137 in its second.


Flu is very different from Covid-19. Although both are commonly spread by the respiratory route, and both have infected prime ministers (David Lloyd George got the Spanish flu), the more we learn about Covid-19, the less its biology and epidemiology resemble that of flu.

There have been no flu-like second waves (or even peaks) in China, South Korea or New Zealand. There was no second wave with Sars, another coronavirus.

In the absence of controls, flu has an R rate of seven; Covid-19’s is between two and three. And far more than with flu, Covid-19 cases have very commonly occurred in clusters. In New Zealand (which may well have eradicated the virus), 41 per cent of cases occurred in 16 clusters of 13 or more cases in each. And, sadly, in the UK the virus has taken an enormous toll on residents of care homes, many of which have had multiple cases.

The only country so far to have made a good start with virus control and then suffered a relapse has been Singapore, when the virus got into the migrant-worker dormitories in which infection control and social distancing was almost impossible (just as in British care homes).

Defeatist flu models still lurk behind current Covid-19 predictions. That the virus will persist for ages is a flu concept. These predictions should be put to one side. Like Sars, and unlike flu, the virus is eradicable. If China and New Zealand are striving to be free of it, we should be, too.

Hugh Pennington is emeritus professor of bacteriology at the University of Aberdeen

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Mellotron said:

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/06/01/no-evidence-suggest-coronavirus-second-wave-coming/

There is no evidence to suggest a coronavirus 'second wave' is coming.
Misleading models based on the Spanish flu cannot be allowed to dictate our policy on lifting lockdown

Hugh Pennington



TL;DR - Coronavirus isn’t flu, doesn’t work the same way, so stop modelling it as such.

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Bob! said:

.

However, the prime minister has committed to taking part in at least one briefing a week, Downing Street said.

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RossyG said:

Not sure if going to the dentist is good news, but mine just rang and asked if they could move my check-up forward from July to next Wednesday.

I hate going, but it's another step towards normality.

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