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[Politics] Russia invades Ukraine (24/02/2022)



Nobby Cybergoat

Well-known member
Jul 19, 2021
7,026
I noticed this thread had gone rather quiet (no new posts for over a week), so I suppose now's a good a time as any to say I AM worried about this supposed Russian offensive that they're planning. We can't bank on them being as useless and as over-confident as they were last year, and as well as any tactical improvements in true Russian style they'll be more than happy to buy success with expendable troops.

I just hope that if the news is bad that Western resolve doesn't waver. Possibly why Zelensky is here, to prepare us for some setbacks.
Yes, Bakhmut will fall, but Russia will have to work hard to get much further in this region.

I think of it like this. One side in this war is about to get a massive injection of troops, but they will be comparatively poorly trained, equipped and motivated and the other side won't get more troops but is going to get a massive injection of sophisticated western weaponry, I know which side i'd back to make progress under those circumstances.

Ukraine should be focussing on retaining troops. If they have to give up land in the short term, so be it.
 






Igzilla

Well-known member
Sep 27, 2012
1,646
Worthing
It's generally the case the attacking force needs about 3x the number of troops than the defender, so for Ukraine to get beaten back badly would require a massive troop surge from Russia. There are signs that they are pumping more conscripts into the Donbas though not at the numbers to make success certain and they will still be low quality, poorly equipped, morale deficient troops. What is interesting is that Russia are starting to push now, in mid February, which is usually the coldest month of the year in Ukraine, so not great for offensive actions. It then leads into the mud season. I've heard speculation that the talk of modern western tanks coming to Ukraine is forcing Putin's hand - they need to gain ground now, and quickly to enable them to dig in and entrench before the tanks arrive. This is also why Ukraine is defending Bakhmut so much - they are trying to make it as costly for the Russians as possible as Russian push forward before they are really ready. I would imagine Ukraine planning a counter offensive in April/May time - watch out for lots of HIMARS action coming to your favourite Russian battalion soon...
 
































jakarta

Well-known member
May 25, 2007
15,632
Sullington
I see we have 100 or so Typhoons which we could offer (presumably flown by RAF pilots)

The Septics have hundreds and hundreds of F15/F16's - no news on them being offered however.
 






A1X

Well-known member
NSC Patron
Sep 1, 2017
17,873
Deepest, darkest Sussex
I see we have 100 or so Typhoons which we could offer (presumably flown by RAF pilots)

The Septics have hundreds and hundreds of F15/F16's - no news on them being offered however.
RAF pilots will not be flying sorties over Ukraine. I can 100% guarantee that.
 




jakarta

Well-known member
May 25, 2007
15,632
Sullington
RAF pilots will not be flying sorties over Ukraine. I can 100% guarantee that.
Well what is the point in these discussions? It take years to train pilots and this will be done & dusted before a Ukraine Pilot can fly a 'borrowed' Typhoon.
 


The Clamp

Well-known member
NSC Patron
Jan 11, 2016
24,540
West is BEST
Well what is the point in these discussions? It take years to train pilots and this will be done & dusted before an Ukraine Pilot can fly a 'borrowed' Typhoon.

According to the news today, it will take a year to train candidates to pilot Apaches and a couple of years to pilot a fighter jet. They are currently training them on Apache gunships.

I cannot see any scenario, anytime soon, in which RAF pilots fly over Ukraine to engage the Russian army.
 


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