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[Politics] Russia invades Ukraine (24/02/2022)



Sirnormangall

Well-known member
Sep 21, 2017
2,980








Eric the meek

Fiveways Wilf
NSC Patron
Aug 24, 2020
5,373
I see Russia describes the west supporting the Ukrainians with tanks as 'a new level of confrontation'.

Well, yes. When you invade independent, sovereign, peace-loving countries, that's the risk you take.

You don't just risk losing your own war. You risk becoming a pariah nation. You risk becoming a third world economic shithole (if you aren't one already). You also risk the very disintegration of your long-established Russian Federation. We all screw up from time to time. But that's a proper f***-up.
 


Publius Ovidius

Well-known member
Jul 5, 2003
46,093
at home
You also risk pushing them into a corner where the only way to save face is to press the button!

this is not good on any level.
 




Eric the meek

Fiveways Wilf
NSC Patron
Aug 24, 2020
5,373
You also risk pushing them into a corner where the only way to save face is to press the button!

this is not good on any level.
Then you are not in favour of sending tanks to Ukraine, to hasten the end of the war.

What is your alternative solution? Perform only those measures which are deemed least likely to elicit a nuclear response from a despot?
 




Eric the meek

Fiveways Wilf
NSC Patron
Aug 24, 2020
5,373
You also risk pushing them into a corner where the only way to save face is to press the button!

this is not good on any level.
Breaking news:

Putin will still do really bad things without pressing the button. Ask 44 million Ukrainians. (Or 40 million who somehow still exist in Ukraine after Putin's invasion).
 




Brovion

Well-known member
NSC Patron
Jul 6, 2003
19,402
You also risk pushing them into a corner where the only way to save face is to press the button!

this is not good on any level.
I'm as worried as anybody about escalation to a nuclear conflict, but I don't see this as an automatic step towards it. We've already helped them with conventional weapons, the HIMARs have made a huge difference, and this is just 'more of the same' - and it's not as if the numbers are enough to allow the Ukrainians to gleefully smash through the Russian lines and advance on Moscow. It also demonstrates to Putin that we haven't got fed up with supporting Ukraine.
 


Icy Gull

Back on the rollercoaster
Jul 5, 2003
72,015
You also risk pushing them into a corner where the only way to save face is to press the button!

this is not good on any level.
Sadly that’s exactly the attitude that gave Putin the confidence to do what he’s been doing since he came to power. The line was drawn when he invaded Ukraine. If it hadn’t been, he’d have carried on invading other countries he thought should be part of Russia.

If he’d been confronted years ago, this shitfest would never have happened and it’s unlikely he’d still be alive
 


Triggaaar

Well-known member
Oct 24, 2005
50,223
Goldstone
You also risk pushing them into a corner where the only way to save face is to press the button!

this is not good on any level.
Winning this war will inevitably involve pushing them into a corner, so you just have to accept the outcome of that as a risk, because the alternative is to let Russia win, and that's not an option for a free world.
 




hampshirebrightonboy

Well-known member
Sep 3, 2011
974
You also risk pushing them into a corner where the only way to save face is to press the button!

this is not good on any level.
A nuclear confict is obviously worrying but they must be just as concerned as we are - makes the blood run cold.
My take on it is that Putin must have been hearing for years how wonderful his military machine is.
His aircraft, ships, tanks and most crucially his air defence systems.
He must realise now that all this military equipment is not shit hot as he thought.
I think he thought he could start a nuclear war and be safe because Russia would be protected by the wonderful S300 and S400 systems.
He's probably reassessing that now.
 


A1X

Well-known member
NSC Patron
Sep 1, 2017
17,989
Deepest, darkest Sussex
Nobody wants a nuclear war (if they do then frankly they're too unhinged to be allowed to contribute).

Is Putin mad enough to start one? Maybe.

Are those around Putin mad enough to let him? I'm not so sure.

The key, therefore, is to put those men (and it is men, let's be honest) in the second part in a position where they have to choose, and my expectation is they'd rather put a bullet in Putin's brain than invoke nuclear holocaust. This move is all part of that.
 






driddles

Well-known member
Nov 8, 2003
632
Ontario, Canada
They are now going to come straight off the production line and not from the US Army stocks. They won't get the Depleted Uranium armour, which will be substituted, and there may well be other customisations.

So although a year sounds like a long time, it may be a realistic worst case estimate ( or deliberate misinformation ).

I think this was more about policy than the US sending actual tanks. The Germans didn't want to go it alone on the Leopard 2 tank decision as they know it is viewed as an escalation by Putler. They needed the US to pledge tanks first so that could join a movement rather than start one.

The Leopard 2 tanks can be in Ukraine for April, hopefully the training can be done in time too (assuming Ukraine sends people that are already trained to use tanks and only need to adapt to the new ones vs learning from scratch). The US tanks may very well take a year.
 


Weststander

Well-known member
NSC Patron
Aug 25, 2011
64,328
Withdean area
You also risk pushing them into a corner where the only way to save face is to press the button!

this is not good on any level.
So allow a 21st century Hitler to steal sovereign land, wage an illegal war, commit genocide and to keep the spoils.
 
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Mellotron

I've asked for soup
Jul 2, 2008
31,867
Brighton
You also risk pushing them into a corner where the only way to save face is to press the button!
I'm confused how Putin dying - which would happen immediately if he pressed the button - whilst also destroying Russia (the same Russia who's legacy he is obsessed with preserving) is saving face exactly?

Reads like the exact opposite to me.
 


sparkie

Well-known member
Jul 17, 2003
12,543
Hove
Talking about "Putin dying", I wouldn't be surprised if he substituted one of his body doubles to be the dead man, and headed off incognito into the sunset.
 




Sirnormangall

Well-known member
Sep 21, 2017
2,980
Having watched a few of the Holocaust memorial programmes in recent days, it’s striking how similar the Nazi brainwashing of the German population is to the current day Russian state propaganda to its citizens. Granted the Russian scale of mass murder in Ukraine is nowhere near (yet) the atrocities of the Nazis in WW2, but their message to their citizens is similar in that they are the victims and are simply defending their country. There seems to be great irony in Putin justifying that the invasion of Ukraine is to remove Nazis.
 


peterward

Well-known member
NSC Patron
Nov 11, 2009
11,382
Having watched a few of the Holocaust memorial programmes in recent days, it’s striking how similar the Nazi brainwashing of the German population is to the current day Russian state propaganda to its citizens. Granted the Russian scale of mass murder in Ukraine is nowhere near (yet) the atrocities of the Nazis in WW2, but their message to their citizens is similar in that they are the victims and are simply defending their country. There seems to be great irony in Putin justifying that the invasion of Ukraine is to remove Nazis.
Just about everything they do in their system of control and propaganda messaging is similar to Hitlers Nazis. And they constantly accuse Ukraine of that which they are guilty of.

A few months old but an insteresting look at one of the ideologues behind Putins brand of fascism.... And it definitely is fascism.

 


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